Deep Dive: Can Gerrit Cole rely on his slider again in 2016?

Gerrit Cole found a fantastic weapon in his slider last season. Can the pitch be relied upon again this year?

In what seems like another lifetime ago, I wrote that Gerrit Cole was now relying on his slider in 2015 as his go-to pitch.

At the time, Cole’s development of a killer secondary pitch to complement his fastball was something that was in its infancy. After bursting onto the scene in 2013 with a fastball that could tap 100mph on radar, Cole showed a greater reliance on his fastball while still mixing in his sinker, slider, and curveball. He even put an emphasis on his still-burgeoning changeup early in the season before that, too, which also took a backseat to the heat.

Despite that emphasis on secondary pitches, Cole was often forced to go back to the fastball in 2014. The simple fact is that the changeup, curveball, and sinker were getting knocked around a bit, with line drive rates of 30.43 percent, 35 percent, and 28.07 percent respectively. The sinking fastball and changeup both had batting averages against of .300 or more, with the changeup also displaying a crooked .643 SLG percentage.

It was clear that Cole was still figuring out which weapon in his arsenal would be that second “go-to” pitch. Enter the slider.

First, we should take note of Cole’s pitch usage throughout his entire career-to-date.

*Note: this data and all data seen in this post is culled from Brooks Baseball’s pitchF/X data.

Looking at Cole’s weaponry thus far in his career shows the slider becoming that secondary pitch outlined above, but it did not take a gradual path of elevation. Rather, the curve ball took the steepest drop over the past three years.  In the two years previous to 2015, Cole was using the curveball as an “out pitch” with percentage use of at least 20 percent in counts with two strikes. While hitters could not muster anything above a .235 average against it for the season, clearly Cole, Ray Searage et al, felt that better success could be seen with the slider.

Were they right to think that? And, more importantly, can it be relied upon again to such a degree in 2016?

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