Gerrit Cole has given up 26 home runs this season. Before this year, his career high had only reached 11. That number will likely be tripled by season’s end. Why is Cole giving up so many home runs?
Gerrit Cole has not been terrible this season. He has an fWAR of 1.9. On the season, the leader of the Pirates’ staff is 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA and 3.91 xFIP. He has tallied 141 strikeouts and 38 walks. If Cole didn’t have such gaudy home run numbers, he would likely be in the Cy Young discussion like he was in 2015. What’s the deal?
A new era
As we know, home runs are way up this season. That means pitchers are obviously giving up these taters. This season, 44 pitchers have already given up at least 20 home runs with a little over a month still left to play. In 2014, 48 pitchers gave up at least 20 home runs. The 2014 total will easily be exceeded. Even last year’s total of 83 pitchers will most likely be surpassed.
Cole isn’t the only high-profiled pitcher to get tagged by the long ball this year. Last year’s AL Cy Young winner, Rick Porcello, has given up 29 home runs this year. Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish have given up 24 each. Carlos Martinez has given up 22 and Justin Verlander has given up 21. Home runs are now a norm in this current climate of major league baseball.
Why Cole?
Of the 26 home runs given up by Gerrit Cole, 12 have come via the four-seam fastball, five slider, three two-seam, three changeup, and three curveball. In terms of batting average against, opponents are hitting .279 against Cole’s fastball, highest of any pitch. They are hitting .216 against the slider, lowest of any pitch. Weirdly enough, although Cole has given up so many home runs, not one of his pitches has a slugging percentage against over .500. Hitters are slugging highest against his two-seam fastball at .480.
In terms of weighted runs created plus, batters are feasting on the fastball. Opponents have a 124 WRC+ against Cole’s four-seam fastball and 117 WRC+ on the two-seam fastball.
Like most pitchers, Cole’s success can judged after the first pitch of an at bat. That is the case for his home run problem. When up 0-1, Cole has given up seven home runs. When down 1-0, he’s given up 14. The remaining five have come via the first pitch.
One interesting tidbit on Cole is that 17 of his home runs given up have been solo shots. Nine have come with men on base. Only three have come with runners in scoring position. This tells me that Cole is trying to pound the zone when runners are not on and he’s getting burned from it. Batters are sitting on the fastball and putting in good swings. This isn’t a bad approach from Cole. You want to try and get quick outs when nobody is on base. Perhaps he is just a little too careless and lacking of precision when pitching out of the windup.
Final thoughts
Cole looked as though he was on the right track in July when he gave up only three home runs total in the month. In August, Cole has given up five home runs in three starts, including three last game in Milwaukee.
Cole is throwing his fastball at a lesser rate than he ever has over the course of his career. Coincidentally or not, his fastball is getting smashed this season. Perhaps he is not locating the secondary stuff well and hitters are gearing up for the heat. Maybe he needs to throw more fastballs like in the past. Cole may just need to locate better.
Whatever the case may be, Cole’s home run total has propelled his overall numbers from a 1-2 starter to a middle of the rotation guy. The Pirates need more. If Gerrit Cole ever wants to be the recipient of a mega-contract, he’s going to have to be better too.
Photo Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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