How deep did they go in the games they pitched?
You always hear the magic number of 200 innings thrown out as the gold standard for starting pitchers. A top of the rotation starter would get at least 33 starts in a regular season, as long as they were not injured. 200 innings is “only” 6 innings per start. A better measure is how deep into games did they pitch, on average. If we ignore 2016, and instead focus on Gerrit Cole’s best season (2015), we see he averaged 6.5 innings per start. Kershaw averaged over 7 innings per start in the same year and Bumgarner, Arrieta and Scherzer were very close to that number. Now, it’s possible that the Pirates outstanding bullpen allowed Clint Hurdle to have a quicker hook with Cole, but more likely, it is Cole himself who is limiting the innings he pitches by not being efficient and giving up early runs. In that 2015 season, Cole did not have a single complete game and pitched into the eigth inning only twice. That same year, Arrieta pitched at least eight innings nine times. Bumgarner did it eight times.
How often did they allow the other team to score in the first inning?
Nothing demoralizes the other team like putting runs on the board in the first inning. True aces know how to prevent this and keep their own offense in the game. In 2015, Clayton Kershaw allowed runs in the first inning in 21% of his starts. Jake Arrieta allowed first inning runs in only 12% of his. For Cole, this number was 28%. This is a significant and meaningful difference as the probabilities start to work against you the minute you fall behind.
How often did they allow the other team to tie or take the lead?
Speaking of falling behind, one of the toughest things to watch is the other team plating the tying or go-ahead run. It’s a deflating feeling, negating all the hard work you’ve done in the game up to that point. Bumgarner and Kershaw allow this to happen in less than 10% of the innings in which they pitched (2015 season). Arrieta allowed it to happen only 6% of the time. Gerrit Cole walked off the mound after giving up the tying or go-ahead run in a whopping 16% of the innings he pitched. And this was in his breakout 2015 season. This starts to propagate a lack of confidence from your teammates and managerial staff.
How often did they allow a leadoff double to score?
A leadoff double really puts the defense on its heels. Whenever this happens, it is always assumed that with two outs to work with, the offense can somehow get the runner home. The league average for scoring that runner in such a situation is 61%. Naturally, you would assume ace pitchers would prevent that runner from scoring more often than a typical pitcher. Sure enough, in 2015, Kershaw, Arrieta and Bumgarner combined to allow only 50% of these runners to score whereas Cole allowed 73% of them to cross the plate. What is more illuminating, perhaps, is that Cole gave up more leadoff doubles in the first place than these other three pitchers combined. When a pitcher can keep a leadoff double from scoring, it is a shot-in-the-arm for his teammates and this boost can often can carry on through the team’s next at-bat.
Can they pick up their teammates after a costly error?
Another way an ace can distinguish themselves is by picking up his defensive teammates after they make an error. If that error later leads to a run, the teammate that made the error feels like they let the team down. If they escape without allowing a run, then it is quickly forgotten. Just like the scenario with a leadoff double, it stands to reason that an ace can turn it up a notch and get through these situations better than the average pitcher. In 2015, the collection of Kershaw, Arrieta and Bumgarner allowed runs to score after an error 36% of the time. This happened to Gerrit Cole 47% of the time.
How often did they lead their team to a win after a losing streak?
The best pitchers are often referred to as “stoppers” because of their ability to end a losing streak. Again, it stands to reason that the aces of MLB should be able to post a W more often than other pitchers. We looked at every instance of the ace candidate pitching a game following a 2+ game losing streak, again for the 2015 season. Cole fared well in this category, going 3-2 in five such games. The combined record of the other four pitchers (Kershaw, Arrieta, Bumgarner and Scherzer) in these scenarios was 12-6. This small sample shows that Cole is just as effective at stopping a losing streak as the other aces in our comparison
Quantifying the Intangibles
Given these unorthodox metrics, we come to the conclusion that Cole is a very good pitcher, but not in the same class as the well-recognized aces of today’s game. Using these metrics, one can develop a sense for how “tough” a pitcher is in specific circumstances. The table below summarizes this analysis.
| Pitcher | Average length of start in innings | % of games allowing a 1st inning run | % of innings allowing other team to tie or take the lead | % of leadoff doubles allowed to score | % of innings where an error led to a run | W-L record stopping a 2+ game losing streak |
| Cole | 6.5 | 28% | 16% | 73% | 47% | 3-2 |
| Kershaw | 7.0 | 21% | 9% | 50% | 60% | 3-2 |
| Bumgarner | 6.8 | 28% | 9% | 67% | 22% | 3-2 |
| Arrieta | 6.8 | 12% | 6% | 33% | 36% | 5-0 |
All statistics are from the 2015 season
In this analysis, Cole is the worst of the four in every category except for allowing runs to score after an error. In this category he is second worst to Kershaw. He does have a good record as a stopper, but this is not enough to bestow the mantle of ace upon him.
A look to the future
What would it take for Gerrit Cole to earn the arbitrary title of ace?
It would, of course, take a couple of years of solid traditional statistics. A sub 3.00 ERA and greater than 9.0 Ks/9 would be a great start. However, in addition to that, Cole should demonstrate leadership by averaging close to 7 innings per start and limit the innings in which he allows the other team to tie the game or take the lead to less than 10%. This would show that he has that extra “something” that lets him reach deep down and get the job done.
That would push his grade from ace-minus to ace.
Featured Photo Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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