Basketball season kicks off next Monday night. Some of you were probably aware, but some of you probably weren’t. I don’t blame you, because the days on the calender seem to fly by. I think now would be a good time to look at what’s new, who’s new, who’s gone, what’s different and what’s the same.
Who’s gone?
Gone are occasional starter/back up center Steve Toyloy, Indiana Pacer bench rider and starting small forward Lance Stephenson, and Polish star and starting shooting guard for the last 4 years Deonta Vaughn.
Who is going to be the hardest to replace?
Vaughn. Deonta was the only outside shooting threat for UC the last 4 seasons. He was also quite adept at passing the ball, as evidenced that he’s the top 3 point shooter, and the top assist man in UC history. Vaughn hit 37 3 pointers in Big East play, the rest of UC hit 55. One has to hope that will be remedied by Dion Dixon making more than 3-20, and Larry Davis shooting better than 22%, along with Sean Kilpatrick.
Stephenson added a lot later in the season as the primary playmaker on the team. In fact, he carried Cincinnati through the Big East tournament. His skills are going to be missed, but his sulky attitude are not. I hope he doesn’t push me down the stairs for that comment.
Who’s new?
The Bearcats add redshirt guard/small forward Sean Kilpatrick, power forward Justin Jackson, and center Kelvin Gaines. Kilpatrick and Jackson got meaningful minutes in the first exhibition game, and look to get minutes throughout the season.
Who are you most excited for?
I already love Justin Jackson. He has a ton of energy and goes and gets it. I think he should be a huge asset off the bench of this team. Kinda like Maxiell was his freshman year. No, I’m not saying he is going to be as good as Mad Max, but I think that he could have a similar impact spark wise.
Who returns?
3 of the 5 starters from last season are back, center Yancy Gates, power forward Ibrahima Thomas and point guard Cashmere Wright. Also back is occasional starter small forward/power forward Rashard Bishop. Bishop was suspended at the end of last season, but he and Mick Cronin kissed, no tongue, and made up. Also back are guards Dion Dixon, JaQuon Parker, and Larry Davis, forward Darnell Wilks, and center Biggie McClain. The end of the bench trio of Eddie Tyree, Alex Eppensteiner and Anthony McBride is also back. McBride redshirted last season, so maybe he’s in position to get off the bench this season. According to his bio, Anthony McBride’s full name is Anthony McBride. Great bio.
Who are the starting 5?
Center Yancy Gates
Power Forward Ibrahima Thomas
Small Forward Rashard Bishop
Shooting Guard Dion Dixon
Point Guard Cashmere Wright
Who needs to step up?
Yancy Gates. Gates has put up the same 10-6 the last two seasons, and that frankly will not fly this season. He’s got to be the star of the team. The offense is going to run through him, at least it probably should. The giant knock on Gates has been his effort. He looked like he didn’t care at times the last two seasons. Rebounding, especially defensively, is about wanting the ball no matter what, and Gates doesn’t appear to want to fight. Gates was a high profile recruit to UC as the local guy staying home to turn around the team, and he hasn’t played like it. We’ve seen UC bigs mature in the past, from Martin, to Max, to Hicks, and I hope that Yancy Gates is the next in that line.
Who is going to breakout?
Dion Dixon. I’ve said it since I started this blog, Dion Dixon is my best friend. He has really upped his game over the summer. Dixon scored 19 points in the first exhibition game, and looks like he’s taken the mantle of team leader. UC absolutely needs a guard to take over. It could be Kilpatrick, Dixon, Cash, Davis, Parker, any one of them. At this moment, it’s looking like Dixon has put in the hard work to raise his game and take over the shooting guard position. His season last year ended miserably, and I hope that this year ends well for #3.
I also think that Cashmere Wright isn’t going to be too far behind Dixon. Cash had an up and down first season. He showed a lot of flashes, but also made a lot of freshman mistakes that got him benched. One thing is for certain, he’s not going to be third on the team in assists this season. Not a chance.
Who is going to bounce back?
I created this question to say Larry Davis. A lot of people gave Davis a lot of shit after his miserable season a year ago. He plays defense very hard, but his offense last season was terrible. He shot just 29% on the season, and was much worse in 3 point range. You have to have your shot be really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really off to shoot 29% and then shoot much, much, much worse from 3. Davis hasn’t adjusted to the new 3 point lines well. I think if he put enough work in this summer, he can bounce back and flash the talent that we saw his freshman season.
Who is the top reserve?
Sean Kilpatrick. I was impressed with what I’ve seen of him, and so is everyone else apparently. UC finally has a scorer to come off the bench for the first time since, what Tony Bobbit? I don’t know if Kilpatrick will be a microwave like Tony, but he has a certain set of skills that allows him to get the ball into the basket. I have Justin Jackson a close second.
Darnell Wilks played like a mad man in the Big East tournament, any chance that continues?
I think it does. The light seemed to have turned on for Wilks late last season. Maybe it was because it was the first time he was getting a true chance, but he lit it up. He also didn’t take any terrible 3 pointers that made me throw pillows. That’s why they are called throw pillows right? Wilks could be a weapon in the second line for the Bearcats. We all know he can dunk, but we know he can do more than that. If he takes a step back, I’ll be disappointed.
You’ve made this seem like the greatest UC team of all time. What are their drawbacks?
The front line is especially thin. It’s Gates, Thomas, Jackson………Bishop? Biggie? Gaines? We know how much Ibrahima Thomas loves foul trouble, and Gates is not a stranger. God forbid one of them gets hurt, then UC is in major trouble. UC has just 5 bigs, 2 of which are freshman and 1 has played an average of 7 minutes his UC career.
I also think outside shooting is going to be an issue. Unless they were all in a slump at the same time, Wright, Dixon, Davis, and Bishop don’t have much outside game. Kilpatrick could be better. JaQuon Parker hit 3s at a pretty good rate last season, but was only 30% in Big East play. It’s something to be worried about. If the offense is going to go through Gates, you have to stretch the floor. From what we’ve seen, I don’t know if they are. Also, this team better shoot free throws better than last season, or I’m going to go crazy.
What kind of non-conference schedule does UC have?
Non-conference wise, not much of one. The first test is Dayton on November 27. They play Oklahoma on December 18 at a neutral site, but OU was terrible last season and lost most of their playmakers. UC travels to Miami for the rivalry game after that. The Crosstown Shootout is January 6. That’s pretty much your non-conference schedule. UC should roll into Big East play with 11 wins, maybe undefeated if they beat Dayton. Many of the games will be on FSN, but the Dayton game will be on ESPN3. That sucks. The lesson is go to the games.
What about in the Big East?
Everyone in the Big East plays a miserable schedule. UC opens with 3 of 4 at home before a 3 game road trip to Syracuse, Notre Dame and St John’s, all teams UC lost to last season. There is a 4 game stretch that could make or break the season. They play @DePaul, home for St John’s and Louisville, and @Providence. If they could sweep those 4, maybe UC is in position to get an NCAA bid. They close with a home and home with Georgetown around a visit from UConn and trip to Marquette.
How do you think UC will finish?
I think 19-12, 8-10. I think I’m being too optimistic, but I don’t think it’s that much a stretch for UC to win against DePaul twice, St John’s at home, USF at home, Rutgers at home and to steal a couple of other games. They beat UConn at home last season. They could beat Louisville. They could win at Notre Dame.
Do you think UC makes the NCAA Touranment?
No. The losing conference record combined with the trash they play non-conference is going to do them no favors. To make the tournament, UC is going to have to sweep non-conference, which they have a chance of doing, a small chance yes, but a chance, and winning 9 games in conference. I think 22 wins, no matter how hollow, gets them in. Change it to losses against Dayton and Xavier and that’s 20 wins going 9-9, and I’m not sure that’s good enough.
Does Mick Cronin save his job?
I really don’t know. If UC tanks another March, I think he’s probably not coming back. The expectations aren’t as high as they were last season, so I think that he could get another swing at things. One of the keys to him staying is if UC takes care of the non-conference. If the Bearcats lose beyond three times, you are looking at a 16-17 win season, and I don’t think .500 brings Mick Cronin back. Another NIT trip, yes, he’s coming back.
Should we be excited for the season?
Fuck yes we should be excited for the season. It’s college basketball, the greatest sport in the land. We play in the best conference in the country (that’s not the Big 10). We have a talented group of players that could break out this season. This seems like a team that could come together and win. Last season, we saw a team that was talented on paper, but they weren’t a team. This year, we have a team. The sky is the limit. Plus, we didn’t lose to Bellarmine. It’s basketball people. Not just basketball, it’s Cincinnati basketball.
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