GODADDY.com Bowl Preview: Arkansas State vs NIU

Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2, 8-0 Sun Belt)

Most Impressive Victory:  30-21 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (Nov 12th)

Worst Loss: 33-15 at Illinois (Sept 3rd)

Notable Alumni:  Cleo Lemon, Al Joyner

The GoDaddy (nee GMAC) Bowl is well on it’s way to becoming the unofficial “Stepping Stone” bowl for college coaches.  For the fourth consecutive season, a team will take the field with an interim head coach following the departure of their previous coach for greener pastures.  This year, Arkansas State fills that bill, having lost one-year wonder Hugh Freeze to Ole Miss.  But what a year it was.  After taking a few lumps in the early going against AQ conference competition, the Red Wolves proceeded to light up the scoreboard and rip off nine straight wins to close the season, sweeping their Sun Belt conference schedule.  Few would have guessed going into the season that their October 1st game against Western Kentucky would determine the Sun Belt champion, but that’s exactly how it ended up.  Arkansas State over came not one but two 4th quarter deficits in that game to down the Hilltoppers on their own field.

Offensively, the Red Wolves are a bit of a one man show.  Quarterback Ryan Aplin (3,235 passing yards, 18 TDs) is also the team’s leading rusher with 605 rushing yards and 9 TDs.  Not a single running back on the team cracked the 500-yard mark.  Far and away his favorite target is 5’9″ Dwayne Frampton (90 catches for 1,125 yards and 6 TDs).  Another ASU receiver worth looking out for is the well-traveled, erstwhile Oklahoma Sooner/Troy Trojan/amateur gangster rapper Josh Jarboe (52 catches for 707 yards and 2 TDs).

But while it was Freeze’s fast break spread offense that scored him the promotion to head coach at ASU, it was the defense that really made this historic 10-win season possible.  You probably don’t associate the Red Wolves with college football’s other defensive powerhouses, but they finished the regular season in the Top 20 in scoring defense, allowing just 19.3 points per game.  In fact, only one opponent all season scored over 30 points on them (that being Illinois’ 33-points in the season opener).  ASU is led on that side of the ball by the Sun Belt’s Defensive Player of the Year, Brandon Joiner, who has posted 12 sacks on the season so far.

Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3, 8-1 MAC)

Most Impressive Victory: 23-20 vs. Ohio (Dec 2nd)  

Worst Loss: 48-41 at Central Michigan (Oct 1st)

Notable Alumni: Michael Turner, Dennis Hastert, Dan Castellaneta, Kurt Sutter

Northern Illinois barely missed a beat after having to replace Jerry Kill following last season.  New coach Dave Doeren will have an opportunity to match the Huskies’ 11-3 record in 2010 with a win in this game.  But I used the word “barely” for a reason:  Because after a 2-3 start, it was far from a seamless transition.  While dropping early season games to major conference teams like Wisconsin and Kansas is nothing to be ashamed of (even if Kansas was terrible and they REALLY should have won that one), that loss to Central Michigan (who finished the season 3-9) shook the faith of Huskie fans.  But they would not lose again, winning 7 straight, including that 63-60 barnburner over Toledo that earned them a spot in the MAC championship game.  And that’s when Doeren did Kill one better.  In 2010, the Huskies gave up a TD with 30 seconds remaining to lose the title to Miami (OH), 26-21.  This season, Doeren rallied his team from a 20-7 4th quarter deficit to win it, 23-20.

Of course, most of the praise for the Huskies’ success goes to senior quarterback Chandler Harnish.  And rightfully so.  He’s like Arkansas State’s Aplin, but to the next degree.  He’s passed for 2,942 yards and 26 TD’s while rushing for 1,382 yards and 11 TD’s, leading an offense that ranks in the Top 20 in points scored.  But Northern Illinois isn’t just a one-man show.  Fellow senior running back Jasmin Hopkins has added nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 15 TDs of his own, and as a team, the Huskies rank in the Top 10 in rushing yards.  Harnish lacks for standout receivers, but he does an excellent job of finding whoever is open when teams load up to stop the running attack and makes very few mistakes with the ball (only 5 interceptions on the year).

And it’s a good thing they have a superstar like Harnish at the controls on offense, because the Huskie defense is a disaster.  They currently allow an average of 31.1 points per game and have surrendered over 40 points four times so far this season.

The Pick:

There has been a lot of talk about the offenses in this matchup and the potential for an outrageous final score (which have become common place this bowl season).  Bowl officials have even been selling the game on the prospect of seeing the 2001 GMAC bowl’s record for total points (125) broken.  And I have little doubt that Ryan Aplin will run up and down the field on Northern Illinois.  But I think the Arkansas State defense is going to surprise people.  They’re a very solid unit who’s strength (13th against the run) matches up against the Huskies’ strength quite well.  It’s true there aren’t any players as good as Chandler Harnish in the Sun Belt this season, but I really think that unless Aplin gets loose with the ball (13 interceptions) and sets Harnish up with short fields to score from, the Red Wolves’ defense can get enough stops to win this one.

Arkansas State 42, Northern Illinois 30