(Photo: LetsGoWarriors.com / Ryan Brown)
Following the Golden State Warriors‘ 106-102 loss to the division rival Phoenix Suns, head coach Mark Jackson questioned his team’s belief in themselves.
The loss, which was the Dubs’ 4th in the last 6 games, dropped Golden State to 1.5 games back of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Warriors began the season 8-3, looking every bit the part of a contender they were expected to be, but the combinations of injuries and a lack of quality depth has sunk them to just a single game over .500.
All of this is very troublesome for a team who is still hoping to take the next step in the playoffs this season, after being eliminated in the Conference Semi-Finals last year. However, there’s another issue brewing for the Warriors.
Stephen Curry’s injury history is pretty well documented, and has been a big concern of the Warriors and fans over the past couple seasons.
The losses may be piling up, but so are the star point guard’s minutes. Since returning from a two-game injury absence on November 23, Curry has played nearly 500 minutes in 12 games.
That’s more than 41.5 minutes per game, more than he averaged even during the playoffs last season, which included a 57-minute, double-overtime game against San Antonio.
In those playoffs, Curry played 40+ minutes 8 times over a 12-game span. In his most recent 12 games, he’s done it 9 times. Contrast that with the single 40-minute game in his first 10 appearances this season, and the issue is clear.
The Warriors miss Andre Iguodala, as much for his skills as for his ability to give Curry his needed rest. While it helped that the Warriors were blowing teams out to start the season, Curry’s minutes average through 10 games was just 32.6 a night.
The impact of minutes on fatigue and injury has been debated in recent years, but I’m personally a believer that those extra minutes can have serious negative effects on players at any level.
In the past few seasons, we’ve seen a number of stars, young and old, succumb to injury after logging 40 minutes game after game. Kobe Bryant tore his Achilles tendon after pushing himself to the limit last season.
Derrick Rose tore his ACL a season after being top 10 in minutes. His Chicago Bull teammates Luol Deng and Joakim Noah have struggled to stay on the court as well, and Tom Thibodeau has become infamous for having starters log big minutes.
Not every player reacts to an increase in minutes the same way. LeBron James has played 10 full NBA seasons, averaging at least 37 minutes without ever suffering a significant injury.
Former Warrior Monta Ellis has survived a number of high-usage seasons, only ever missing significant time due to a moped accident off the court.
But most players’ bodies can only handle so much. As of now, Mark Jackson doesn’t have much choice. His bench has performed pitifully and the Warriors don’t have a reliable second ball-handler.
Jackson needs Curry in the game to run the offense for as many minutes a night as he can bear, because when he isn’t in the game, the Warriors simply don’t score like an NBA team.
Though Curry seems better in the second half of games no matter how many minutes he’s played, his body is being put at risk. With Andre out, teams are blitzing Curry defensively, and he has to work harder than ever when he has the ball.
His minutes are not only up, but they’re significantly more difficult as well. Curry called the increased responsibility “Just the next step in my progression as a complete player,” but there’s a lot more to it than that.
What he’s done in Iguodala’s absence has been impressive. Truly, he’s shown himself worthy of consideration for a starting spot on the All-Star team.
But this kind of effort for this many minutes can only last so long. Whether it’s injury or simply fatigue, eventually Curry’s body will break down.
Iguodala, the Warriors secondary ball-handler, eases Curry’s load more than any other Warrior. He can create for others the way no other teammate can.
When he returns, his presence will help the Warriors in a number of ways, but barring a trade for a better backup point guard, his biggest impact may be in keeping Curry healthy and fresh.
And that, for the Warriors, not win total or offensive and defensive efficiency, is the Warriors’ only chance of reclaiming this season and winning the Western Conference.
They’ll need a certain number of wins, no doubt, but they’ll do them no good if their point guard isn’t at his best in the playoffs. As good as the Warriors top six players are, they aren’t going anywhere without Steph Curry.
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