Although the conference landscape is shifting more quickly than Chip Kelly can call plays and too quickly to publish any relevant piece of journalism that’s not outdated, a brief dissection of the Big 12—they of the dying breed—is still a worthwhile study.
Reports are pointing more and more towards Oklahoma and Oklahoma State heading to the Pac-12. Supposedly, OU has had enough of buoying up a sinking ship, and the Pac-12, which is rather limited in its regional options, is ready to bring the mega-power and its instate rival to their fold.
Assuming that the Sooners, Cowboys, and Aggies all defect from the Big 12, what will become of the remaining seven teams? In this part-puzzle, part-chess game, the question is what’s the next move and who’s the next piece to fall?
First off, the Big 12 will be officially dead. With just seven teams left, no one–not even a minor school like Rice or SMU–would risk jumping on board. So what options remain for the other schools without a Big 12? I’ll run through each school’s possible destiny in the wake of realignment.
Baylor
The school throwing a hissy fit in the media might be experiencing the flare out of shooting star. It’s not looking good for the Bears. From everything I’ve heard, there is no way the Pac-12 would take them due to religious affiliations. The SEC might give them a passing thought if (a big “if”) they can add two other homerun schools besides TAMU. Another “anchor” in the Texas market wouldn’t be awful for the SEC. Baylor is strong in minor sports, so they aren’t a terrible addition. But I wouldn’t wait with baited Bear breath for that to happen. More likely, Baylor would join a larger Sun Belt, Mountain West, or WAC conference. Or perhaps make an all-Texas conference with other traditional football schools that don’t get asked to dance. Whatever happens, staying “major” is improbable for Baylor.
Kansas and Kansas State
The Kansas Board of Regents has already chimed in with an opinion on the flagship schools’ futures—together forever! And it makes sense. While Kansas does have more national appeal and could be lured in as a solo addition, their two most probable destinations would take them together. There’s already been chatter about the Big East wanting the two schools, dating back to summer 2010. Already having branched out into Texas with TCU, grabbing two from the heartland doesn’t seem like a stretch. But would the Big East be the preferred landing spot for the Kansas schools? If Texas doesn’t want to join Texas Tech heading west to the Pac-12, then the Pac-12 is in a quandary. Stay at 14 and never grow to 16? Choose Texas Tech and a non-Texas school? There are scarce choices around the west that have major sports appeal (Nevada or UNLV, New Mexico, or smaller Texas schools), no religious affiliations (BYU), and population bases (Boise State). KU and KSU would keep the Pac-12’s symmetry alignment of two per state/region and nicely border Colorado and Oklahoma. Kansas’s Dorothy and Toto would love to land out West, despite being a clear second choice.
Iowa State
Despite an unbelievable report about the Cyclones joining the Big Ten, Iowa State is really in the same boat as Baylor. Consolidation of conferences is not its friend. Some rumors hinted at ISU to the Big East along with Kansas and KState, and this would be a dream scenario for them. Otherwise, the Cyclones will be spinning to a mid-major conference nearby.
Texas Tech
Red Raider fans unfortunately are saying their burnt orange prayers and crossing their lucky longhorns that Texas finds a way to join the Pac-12. Again, Texas Tech by itself isn’t a must-get but paired with the mighty men of Austin, Texas Tech would be eating In-and-Out and waxing their surfboards in no time. If the Longhorns pass on the Pac and the Pac passes on the Red Raiders, there are other options. Perhaps the Big East would want a dual imprint in Texas (TCU and Tech)? Or, far less likely, maybe the SEC would one day use them to march to 16 teams? Probably the worst-case scenario for Texas Tech is that they end up in an All-Texas conference or a mid-major, partners in misery with Baylor.
The final two schools—Texas and Missouri—are the avalanche schools in this all. If just one of them selects (or is selected to) a new conference, a mountain of change will fall on us all.
Texas
The instigator of most of this madness, the Longhorns still have all the power. It’s desired by all, but its desires will dictate how the future face of college football will appear. Does it want power? Money? Tradition? Affiliations? Right now it seems like Texas wants it all but is watching a little bit slip away every day. Texas doesn’t want the SEC supposedly. Texas would need to abandon the TV network it just started to join the Pac-12. Ditto if it wanted to head north to the B1G (rumors of which have been fainter than faint, perhaps because of an ESPN smear campaign?). Keeping together a ragtag Big 12 might hurt its value in the long run. Sometimes too many choices is harder to contend with than too few.
Missouri
Geographically, Missouri sits at the border of three current conferences—the Big 12, the B1G, and the SEC. A fourth desirable destination—the Big East—also shouldn’t be ruled out. Missouri’s like the girl everyone says you should marry but you don’t really love. The Big 12 treated her like crap. The B1G already rejected her. The SEC is dating her but is a long way from committing. What might finally get this girl some laovin’ is jealousy. Missouri could be a crucial part of the SEC’s western expansion plan. It’s a border state (Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee) with a good market, good sports, and good academics. However, if the B1G has any intentions of snagging Texas (again, just faint rumors), Missouri is essential. Although it doesn’t border Texas, it would lock up the lower Midwest for the Big Ten Network and give the western side of the B1G balance. If somehow both the SEC and the B1G leave Mizzou at the altar, the Big East would certainly put the ring on her finger.
Of the remaining seven schools in the Big 12, only Texas has a secure future. Missouri could marry a millionaire (SEC or B1G) or a blue-collar worker (Big East). Texas Tech needs Texas (and the Pac-16) to ensure it doesn’t end up with a sad fate like Baylor and Iowa State. And Kansas and Kansas State should land on their feet, but a little worse for the wear.
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