And just like that the 2017 NFL draft has come to an end and we now know which 7 players have been (at least for now) added to the Saints 2017 roster. For every one of these players we are all operating under the ‘3-year-rule’ which means we won’t know how good (or bad) each player is until about year 3, except in the case of stars and busts who tend to reveal themselves rather quickly. Some players are more likely to succeed than others and are prioritized by the teams, teams express that fate by taking them higher in the draft, and that higher level of faith invites a higher level of criticism by we the fans due to the expectations put on top picks. Before I start trying to get into roster composition, how I think the scheme might change after all the off-season changes or anything else, I want to take a moment to give my grades on each pick made over the last few days.
Any group of grades should first reveal what the criteria is (at least in my opinion) since everyone sees things a little bit differently. For me I’m looking at 3 things for each pick. What’s the talent level, what’s the fit relative to team need, what’s the value comparing where they were drafted to where their talent puts them in my book (and also what else was available). Those three things converge to make a ‘grade’.
1st round, 11th overall: Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
The biggest need and biggest hole on the Saints roster coming into the off-season was at pass rusher opposite Cameron Jordan. Corner was at 2nd right behind it. My favorite player in the draft Haason Reddick was there, but sometimes value trumps preference. Marshon Lattimore was a player I never did a draft profile on because I thought there was no chance he made it to 11, and we are incredibly fortunate I was so very, very wrong. Marshon Lattimore is an extraordinarily talented young player (20 years old) who combines the size (6-feet), skill, and athleticism (4.36 40 yard dash) that teams covet at the position. He also has outstanding ball skills, and most importantly has a swagger and self-confidence to his game that is vital to the position. He was a top 5 talent in this draft, fills an extremely important hole for the team, and might be the only corner in this draft who is NFL ready on day one. Anytime you get an immediate impact player who is an elite talent at a major position of need there is only one grade that can be given.
Draft grade: A+
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa9C6saEcuY]1st round, 32nd overall: Ryan Ramczyk, T, Wisconsin
The two needs that were talked about ad nauseum by every draft expert, media member, team official, and fan were cornerback and pass rusher. There were very few people who before the draft realized (or at least publicly stated) that a very quiet need for the team was an heir apparent for Zack Strief. The Saints have two players capable of playing left tackle in Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat, but as we learned last year Peat simply does not play well on the right side of the line. That is a major problem for a team starting a 33 year old right tackle (as good as he’s been the last few years). Enter Ryan Ramczyk the team’s second first round pick.
Ramczyk was a combination of a player filling a need for the team and having absolutely incredible value for the spot. Some considered him the best tackle in the draft, and in a draft that was incredibly thin along the offensive line if you are going to get a tackle you HAVE to get one early, or not at all. The fans (myself included) wanted the team to take a pass rusher at this spot and give the team the talent at that position they haven’t had since Junior Galette turned into a spoiled brat (PG version of what I call ol’ Pootie Tang). Getting what they believed to be a top positional talent at a spot of need whose grade vastly succeeded those of the other players left on the board is the smart football move. It’s not he splashy move, it’s not the hyped move, but it was the right move. There was a great quote after the pick, and I don’t know who said it first but it goes “everybody wants to have the Cowboys offensive line, but nobody wants to draft it”. Only time will tell on if he can make the transition to right tackle, but if Ramczyk is able to live up to his billing as an athletic and relentless run blocker and technically sound pass rusher he could help the Saints achieve that very scenario.
Draft Grade: A-
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPLixq6Gt1Q]2nd round, 42nd overall: Marcus Williams, S, Utah
This was a pick that caught some of us out of left field considering the team’s desperate need of a pass rusher, and the vast array of talented young men available at the position. That said the Saints got a player with tremendous instincts, ball skills, intelligence, and range to play the single high safety role vacated by Jairus Byrd when the Saints cut him. Williams has youth, athleticism, swagger, and intelligence on his side, and demonstrated the fact that the Saints are clearly planning to make the 3-safety set a core component of their defense. From a talent perspective this is the right move, from a value perspective its a right move, and with the team really only having one true FS on the roster in Rafael Bush this was another quietly very good infusion of talent for the defense.
Williams has the ability to be a difference maker and play maker for the defense sooner rather than later, and the Saints drafting him here shows their primary concern was in enhancing the secondary above all else and hoping that better coverage and a more dynamic scheme will allow them to manufacture pressure.
Draft Grade: B
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3ukvPwxbXc]3rd round, 67th overall: Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee
Saints fans made jokes about Jeff Ireland running out of tranquilizer darts to use on Mickey as soon as this trade happened (the Saints traded a 2nd next year and this year’s 7th to move up into the 3rd round), but the fact is the Saints got both a huge asset and great value. The Saints traded a 2nd round pick next year to draft a 3rd round pick this year, which for those who ONLY look at the picks in question is a taboo. However, there are practically no people who have any level of interest in the draft who would have had a major issue with any team taking Alvin Kamara in the second round. Kamara has a rare blend of speed, strength, athleticism, and balance that makes him a tremendously versatile and dynamic player out of the back field. The best way I can describe him is he’s Pierre Thomas with speed, and that means he’s absolutely a perfect fit for the Saints and fills a whole that’s been hiding on the roster for the last few seasons. A matchup dictating chess piece who Sean Payton can deploy to terrorize defenses (basically….NOT Travaris Cadet).
Getting Kamara in the 3rd round is great value, he’s a perfect fit for the team, and they didn’t have to give up assets in any way in excess of his talent value and grade. The grade is easy.
Draft Grade: A+
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSJ39jsZSxg]3rd round, 76th overall: Alex Azalone, LB, Florida
This is the toughest pick to grade by far. A player I would have happily taken at 42 in Derek Rivers was available here, and if not him Carl Lawson was also available here. Two tremendously talented pass rushers who could become major contributors sooner rather than later. Instead of taking a potential difference maker (and tremendous athlete in Rivers case) at the team’s biggest position of need, the Saints took the answer to the question “what if Dannel Ellerbe and Coby Fleener had a baby?”. Azalone is an athletice linebacker who is good in coverage, a solid blitzer, and has a great motor. He’s also the fusion of Thor from Avenger’s and Samuel L. Jackson’s character from Unbreakable, he’s a big blonde norse looking bad ass who shatters into pieces if you so much as sneeze in his vicinity.
If he lives up to his potential Azalone could be a tremendous asset to the team as a do it all linebacker who flies around and makes plays, but for a team operating under a talent deficit on defense who have had MAJOR problems keeping players healthy the last few years…its a hard pick to swallow. I would love to be proven wrong, but whether its talent, fit, need, value, or value relative to other players currently available…well..read the grade.
Draft Grade: D-
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB1kvG-bMdE]3rd round, 103rd overall: Trey Hendrickson, DE, Florida Atlantic
FINALLY!!! The Saints finally took their pass rusher. They might have done it a pick later than I would have liked, but Trey Hendrickson is actually a pretty talented pass rusher. He’s highly athletic and possesses enough talent and plus athletic traits to warrant a third round selection. Hendrickson isn’t the best pass rusher in this class, he’s probably not in the top 10, but he is a solid pick and picked right around where he should have been. The Saints likely picked him because his character and effort fit perfectly into their preferences for those two categories and his athletic traits give his good potential to develop into a solid pass rusher. They also probably avoided Carl Lawson (who is MUCH more talented) because of major injury concerns with him. Hendrickson isn’t even close to being the pass rusher I hoped they would get, but he’s also far from a bad pick. He fits into his draft position value wise, and could be an asset on third downs even as soon as year one. My doubt is whether he could ever become more than a solid defensive player.
Draft Grade: C+
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rab0s3vWrAM]6th round, 196th overall: Al-Quadin Muhammad, DE, Miami
The Saints final draft pick is what just about every player after the 3rd round (and definitely all of them after the 4th) are, he’s a roll of the dice. Muhammad has ideal size and some positive traits in his favor that give coaches something to work with. If you check out some of his interviews through the draft process he seems totally dedicated to wanting to fill whatever role a team pictures for him. That’s the right mentality to have. The chances of him making the roster much less actually contributing meaningful snaps are very low (injuries could change that of course), but its still a good pickup. I would have rather the team have drafted Brad Kaaya the QB from Miami with this pick, but Muhammad is a decent prospect who might provide some depth value. Being a late round pick value is almost always out of the question as they are all gambles anyway. At least they got another player to try out along the defensive front though.
Draft Grade: C
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkPPoE2hGmA]Overall Draft Grade: B
The Saints filled needs with every pick but one, got several players who can reasonably be expected to make an immediate positive impact on the team (3 of the top 4 in my book), and got two other players who have at least a decent chance to be of value in 2017. This is a solid albeit unspectactular draft. If the Saints had taken Rivers at 76 and Kaaya at 196 I would have given this draft a rock solid A. They didn’t so neither did I.
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