Great new CHFF stat

Passer rating differential. Love it.  Indy is third this year.

THEORY TWO – The NFL is all about passing success. Regular CHFF readers (Hi, Cousin Cooter!) know that the Cold, Hard Football Facts throughout NFL history prove that success in the passing game means everything. Teams can run well or run poorly, or defend the run well or defend the run poorly – but success either way hinges on their ability to pass the ball effectively or stop the pass on defense. If you look at any champion in NFL history, there are only two constants: they were either very good passing the ball or very good stopping the pass. The greatest teams, whether the 1940s Bears, 1960s Packers, 1970s Steelers of 1980s 49ers, were those that were effective in the passing game on both sides of the ball.

By the way, it was tough to come to that realization. When we started CHFF back in 2004, our minds were filled with all kinds of traditional mumbo-jumbo about the need to “establish the run” and “stop the run” on defense. But the data, the Cold, Hard Football Facts, quickly proved that our most cherished theories were false. But this isn’t about what we think: it’s about what the Cold, Hard Football Facts tell us.

Of course, it does help to have balance on offense – teams must at least attempt to run, even if they can’t do it effectively. But at the end of the day you must pass well on offense and stop the pass well on defense or you’re going nowhere.