With the 2015 NFL Draft in the books, I’d love to be spending all this time talking about the many players out of Cincinnati taken in the draft and their bright futures with the teams that decided to take them. I’d like to, but I can’t seeing as for the second straight year, the Bearcats put up a goose egg, nada, zero when it comes to players taken. So, sadly, there isn’t much to say when it comes to this year’s draft and former Bearcats. It’s not like I want to spend my time talking about which players MIGHT make a practice squad or go play in the CFL or AFL because, let’s face it, it’s just not very exciting. So, instead, it’s time we focus on next year’s draft and the top prospect that Cincinnati will likely boast: Gunner Kiel. Is it too early to do that? Oh well. We’re going to do it anyways.
Kiel, a former top 100 recruit in 2012, has proven himself to be one of the better quarterbacks returning for the 2015 season. Kiel’s 2014 season puts him in the top 10-15 returning quarterbacks in terms of passing yards and top 5 in terms of passing touchdowns. This isn’t to say he’s an automatic Heisman candidate, as his lack of a running game always hurts a player’s chances when they play quarterback. However, the prototypical quarterback in the NFL, and many of the current top quarterbacks (Manning, Brady, Brees) fit this mold, tends to be a pocket passer that will rarely choose to run the ball. His decision-making and accuracy needs some work as his touchdown to interception ratio is nowhere near as high as many of the other top returning quarterbacks, but I might be getting ahead of myself.
The question becomes: where is Kiel likely to be drafted if he decides to go pro? Is he going to be looked at as a top pick and possibly the top quarterback coming out of college next season? Based on how I feel “non power conference players” are looked at and the other returning quarterbacks, I think Kiel will be looked at in the second or third round if we assume he’s pro-bound. It will be similarly to where we saw Garrett Grayson or Sean Mannion as the third and fourth quarterbacks off the board.
Now, I can’t deny that a lot can change in the time between now and the draft in a year, but that doesn’t mean that I can ignore the stats and what I’ve seen up till now. Not to mention someone can come out of nowhere like Cardale Jones of Ohio State did this season. Having said that, what I know now says that Kiel isn’t likely to be a first round pick.
My rationale for that goes back to what I mentioned about decision-making and accuracy. A quarterback having the strongest arm doesn’t equate to being the best quarterback in the draft. In fact, most of the quarterbacks taken early in drafts are accurate throwers that avoid the costly turnovers. Kiel needs to work at setting himself apart from these other quarterbacks by learning to avoid those costly turnovers while still putting up the top level stats that he did in terms of yards and touchdowns.
Kiel’s other major issue has been the fact that he’s injury-prone. A quarterback that can’t stay on the field is a major liability to a team that might be willing to draft him. Teams don’t want to invest in a guy that might only play half the season if they can get a guy whose skills may only be slightly less than the first player’s but will play 15-16 games. If those two issues can be sorted out, there’s no doubt in my mind that Kiel can be a more than productive quarterback in the NFL.
However, he has to prove that he’s a better investment than players like Cody Kessler (USC), Trevone Boykin (TCU), Connor Cook (Michigan State), Dak Prescott (Mississippi State), among others. Right off the bat, I have Cook and Kessler ahead of Kiel, and I’ll add someone unexpected to rise up the ranks of NFL prospects, leaving Kiel as the fourth rated quarterback draft prospect next year, making him likely a third round pick. If a team like the Houston Texans takes him there, Kiel may find himself with a starting job early on. I believe Kiel can be very successful in the NFL as he has the tools physically to compete. If he can stay healthy and improve decision-making, don’t be surprised if he sneaks up the board to being looked at as one of the top two quarterback prospects.
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