Last time around I spelled out the reasons why keeping Steven Stamkos was not a good idea for the Lightning. However, that was using the assumption of a $10 million cap hit and all-around good guy Stamkos chose to sign for $8.5 million! It’s still a big burden on a cap-strapped team, but GM Steve Yzerman had this number in his head all along.
Also re-signing since that piece were Luke Witkowski (my prediction was $7,500 below), Cedric Paquette ($37,500 high) and J.T. Brown (nailed it on the head. Both showcases for me!). This leaves Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov, Nikita Nesterov and Alex Killorn remaining as RFAs from the NHL roster with approximately $9.3 million in cap space.
Let’s take a look at some mild, medium and hot takes! And if I may add, something very important to remember at this time of year is teams are allowed to exceed the cap by as much as 10%. They must be compliant to start the season, but the Lightning can go up to $7.3 million over while re-signing players and making moves.
Mild
- Nikita Kucherov is getting at least two thirds of that cap space. This is as safe a take as there is. I previously predicted $6.75 million as a mix of Taylor Hall and Vladimir Tarasenko, but Filip Forsberg’s recent $6 million dollar contract is a good benchmark for Kucherov. Kuch has had more playoff success, though, so I still expect him to be around $6.75 million on the cap.
Real cap remaining: $2.55 million
Summer cap remaining: $9.85 million
- Alex Killorn is staying too. He is simply too versatile a player and too solid in the playoffs to let go. I still think he’ll get $4 million, but I wouldn’t sleep on a slightly cheaper deal given his three consecutive 40 point regular seasons. That is to say, we may know Killorn’s ceiling as a point producer (and the tax advantage has already borne fruit with Stamkos).
Real cap remaining: – $1.45 million
Summer cap remaining: $5.85 million
Medium
- Ben Bishop is totally getting traded. There was plenty of smoke at the draft and beat writers don’t tweet things like this. That’s not to say Andrei Vasilevskiy is at Bishop’s level or that Ben doesn’t deserve a big free agent contract. He absolutely does. But the only Stanley Cup-winning goalie in the salary cap era with a cap hit of at least $6 million is Corey Crawford…
- The Lightning could stand to lose another contract too. Buying out Matt Carle is a popular choice, but is Yzerman willing to burden his cap with dead money for four years? Valtteri Filppula is another candidate here, although the savings are modest compared to Carle and Filppula is still an NHL-quality contributor.
Hot
- Vladislav Namestnikov may not sign right away. Despite a breakout regular season, Namstnikov disappeared in the playoffs. He’ll certainly sign a bridge deal like Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat before him, but Yzerman needs to squeeze every penny he can. Perhaps a one year deal is coming for $1.5 million — a prove-it deal for both sides.
Real cap remaining: – $2.95 million
Summer cap remaining: $4.35 million
- Valtteri Filppula eats the buyout. I don’t think it’s a good idea and I don’t think Yzerman would either. Val is below Stamkos and Johnson on the depth chart, but still plays incredible defense and was a key cog in the last two playoff runs. However, as noted by Bolt Prospects on Twitter: Filppula must be protected in next year’s expansion draft due to his NMC. Carle only has an NTC and can be exposed. Again, I don’t think it’s the right move right now, but if Val goes…the Lightning sneak back under the cap and can take their time dealing Bishop for the best return.
Real cap remaining: +$0.38 million
Summer cap remaining: $7.68 million
(Feature Photo/Christine Gunn)
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