Haas: Will Bolts Be Hurt By Expansion Draft?

The latest round of NHL GM meetings has renewed speculation regarding expansion in the near-future. With that in mind, whom might the Tampa Bay Lightning lose in a potential expansion draft?

First, let’s examine the parameters that are currently known:

• Teams can protect three defenseman, seven forwards and one goalie OR any combination of eight skaters and one goalie
• The rules regarding players with no-move clauses (NMC) are unclear, but the current expectation is these players cannot be taken in an expansion draft
• Prospects, as well as first and second year AHL/NHL players are exempt
• Teams can only lose one player per expansion team in the draft
• Teams must expose enough players to represent at least 25% of previous season’s payroll

This exercise will be imperfect because it will be based on the 2015-2016 payroll, but player eligibility will be based on the 2016-2017 season, the assumption being the expansion draft would take place prior to the 2017-2018 season. Let’s dive in:

The Lightning organization has an incredible amount of depth, so let’s go with the three defensemen, seven forwards and one goalie strategy since it allows for two extra players to be protected.

Here are my exposed players with 2015-16 salary listed for NHL players. My assumption is that calculation is based on NHL roster salaries only

Did we meet the 25% rule?

Yes!

Thoughts:

• The first six were slam dunks, but picking the last forward was excruciating. I went with Adam Erne because the Lightning severely lack big wingers throughout the system. If one or two of Boyle, Paquette and Richard get snagged, you at least have one or two of them left to fill that grinding center role.

• The salaries on the blue line really save the Lightning’s bacon. This may be the only time Matt Carle is a blessing.

• If the rules change and players with NMCs can indeed be claimed, my only change would be Steven Stamkos over Adam Erne. Ben Bishop would almost certainly be taken, but Vasilevskiy is the goalie of the future. Filppula and Callahan have bad contracts, so exposing them is not an issue.

• Who’s at risk of being picked up? I’d highlight Jason Garrison, Brian Boyle, Andrej Sustr and Cedric Paquette as current NHL players in danger. Garrison fills a top four role nicely, Boyle and Paquette are astute grinders and Sustr has the size and right-handedness that teams covet on defense.

• That said, I wouldn’t sleep on Tanner Richard and Matthew Peca Richard is developing nicely as a gritty, agitating center that can chip in points – currently 45 in 57 games after 38 in 70 last year in Syracuse. Peca is another small forward in the Lightning system with tons of talent. He currently has 29 points in 51 games during his first full season in the AHL. Peca spent four years at Quinnipiac University after being drafted in the 7^th round in 2011.

In closing, my main takeaway from all of this is the Lightning will be just fine if expansion is a reality. They may lose a talented player or two, but the team has more than enough bullets in the chamber to replace them and keep on competing.

Follow me on Twitter @Vasisexy and please “like” LightningShout on Facebook. You can email us at [email protected].