Handicapping the AL Field

By Andrew Lipsett
As much as it pains me to do it, it’s time – with only a little more than a month remaining in the season – to start handicapping the contenders for the AL crown. If the playoffs started right now (that is, 6pm on Tuesday), the AL Playoff teams would be, in order of record, the Tigers, Yankees, Twins and A’s. I’ll define ‘contending’ as any team that’s 7 or fewer games out of a playoff berth, with two or fewer teams ahead of them; maybe unrealistic, but probably the edge of what’s actually accomplishable. With that cutoff, there are 7 teams – half the league – in contention.
From the bottom to the top, here is my sense of how it stands:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
6.5 GB in AL West, out of contention for AL Wild Card
Must defeat: A’s for AL West
The Angels have had a very rough season, with their usual strength – the pitching staff – faltering. The Angels currently rank 6th in Runs Allowed in the AL, despite coming in just 1 run off the pace in 2005. The primary problem has been in their normally-reliable bullpen, which dropped from a 3rd to a 7th place ranking in OPSA between 2005 and 2006. Their offense has faltered as well, dropping from 7th place in RS in 2005 to 9th in 2006, though their ranking in team OPS has actually risen one spot to 10th overall. Still, it’s safe to say that the Angels are a team that relies almost completely on its pitching for an advantage, and this year that advantage has taken a hit. They’ve actually outplayed their Pythagorean by a game as well.
Playoff Probability: 15/1
AL Championship Probability: 25/1
Boston Red Sox
7 GB in AL East, 6 GB in AL Wild Card
Must defeat: Yankees for AL East, White Sox and Twins for AL Wild Card
I’m sure some of you will tell me that the Sox don’t even deserve to be on that list, and given their recent quality of play I can see the point. But the fact remains that we’re only a few recoveries away from being able to compete somewhat: with Manny and Papi back in the lineup, and Wakefield and Lester back in the rotation, this club could be capable of making up some ground, especially with series remaining against all three of the clubs listed above.
The pitching remains the biggest weakness, but with the rotation back to some level of normalcy, only the pen remains a real problem. A team without a bullpen can win in the regular season, if not in the postseason, so the Sox still have a fighting chance, no matter how distant. Boston has, however, significantly overplayed their Pythagorean; according to RS/RA, the Sox should be in 3rd place, a full 8 games out in the East.
Playoff Probability: 10/1
AL Championship Probability: 20/1
Chicago White Sox
5.5 GB in AL Central, 0.5 GB in AL Wild Card
Must defeat: Twins and Tigers for AL Central, Twins for AL Wild Card
The White Sox are the first team on this list with a really legitimate shot at postseason action; just a half game out of the Wild Card, one game out in the loss column, they could easily pass the Twins with a solid run. Their success this year has come from the offense, a complete turnaround from 2005; they rank second in the AL in RS, but just 7th in RA. Their bullpen – a source of strength during last year’s championship run – ranks 9th overall in 2006, though their rotation has remained strong with a 5th place rank. To take over the Central lead would take a very solid win streak, but the Wild Card is theirs for the taking if they can hang with and better the surging Twins.
Playoff Probability: 2/1
AL Championship Probability: 10/1
Minnesota Twins
5 GB in AL Central, current AL Wild Card leaders
Must defeat: Tigers for AL Central, no one for AL Wild Card
The Twins have been a major surprise in 2006, powered mostly by a young core that could form an impact roster for years. After half a decade of winning based on preventing runs, the Twins are finally scoring them in bunches, as many of their younger players – including Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer – have hit their strides at once. The pitching has faltered somewhat, though Johan Santana remains a force to be reckoned with.
The loss of Francisco Liriano, who was staring an AL ROY and Cy Young in the face at the time of his injury, has hurt tremendously. But the Twins still have a reasonable staff and an unstoppable bullpen. The fact that they can score runs this year has helped them overcome the pitching speed bumps, and their play since late May has been extraordinary. This is a team that can win it all, if their pitching continues to hold.
Playoff Probability: 1.5/1
AL Championship Probability: 9/1
Oakland Athletics
Current AL West leaders
The A’s have emerged in the last couple months as the team to beat in a weak AL West. Though their offense has been lackluster – if not terrible, with an 11th place rank in RS – their pitching has been more than enough to close the gap. The A’s rank only behind the Tigers in RA, and are 5th in the AL in OPSA. Barry Zito and Dan Haren have held down the rotation alongside league-average contributors like Joe Blanton, Esteban Loaiza, and Kirk Saarloos; Rich Harden’s loss has hurt, but only in that it has taken the A’s down a notch in pitching ability. Their depth in the rotation and bullpen has been fantastic in 2006.
Pitching is what wins in October, and the A’s have it. Zito and Haren together make a tough beat in a short series, but the question is whether their poor offense will be able to cobble up even a run against the best pitching of other playoff clubs. Still, the A’s have a very good shot at an AL Crown this season, and I for one hope they get there.
Playoff Probability: 1.05/1
AL Championship Probability: 4/1
New York Yankees
Current AL East leaders
The Yankees have overcome a couple injuries and a seemingly terrible pitching rotation to open a sizable lead in the AL East in 2006; there seems to be only a tiny chance that they will lose that lead. I say ‘seemingly’ above because the Yanks have pitched a lot better than some of the names on their roster would indicate: They currently rank 3rd in the AL in OPSA, driven almost entirely by their starting rotation. It’s hard to believe that this staff is for real, given that the back end is almost non-existent and Randy Johnson is in the second year of showing his age, but Mike Mussina and Chien-Mien Wang have both been excellent and the rest of the starters have been, at worst, league average.
Of course, the real difference maker for the Yanks is their lineup: while it hasn’t been the 1000 run monster many believed it would be, the Yankees have still ha the best offense in the AL this season, both in RS and in team OPS. With Gary Sheffield potentially on his way back, they could be a very frightening team for a middling pitching staff like the White Sox or Twins – one of whom will most likely be their 1st round opponent.
Playoff Probability: 1.01/1
AL Championship Probability: 3/1
Detroit Tigers
Current AL Central Leaders
The Tigers have proven once and for all that they are the team to beat in the American League. With the best pitching in the majors, comprised almost completely of young and impressive starters, the Twins have the potential to blow through weak hitting clubs and give the booming lineups of the Yankees and White Sox a serious challenge. Though their hitting hasn’t been amazing, it has been at least middling: Detroit ranks 7th overall in both OPS and RS in 2006. It’s a lineup that won’t turn many heads, but one which can put up enough runs to sustain their awesome rotation.
Their bullpen has also been quite solid, ranking only behind Minnesota’s in OPSA in 2006; still, the biggest question mark on the club is their closer, Todd Jones. Jones has ranked among the AL’s worst closers this season, and seems a good candidate for an iconic postseason blown save that would live in lore for years. Despite the weak last out, though, this is the club with the most legitimate shot at an AL Crown this season.
Playoff Probability: 1.1/1
AL Championship Probability: 2/1