A slightly more rigorous analysis incorporating multiple regression provides similar results. Once we control for previous year winning percentage or better yet, scoring ratio, winning/losing the Super Bowl has no significant predictive power for the next regular season winning percentage (.03, p=.31 for winner dummy; .01 p=.69 for loser dummy; i.e. not significant).
However, my straw man may have a bit of a point. Since 1993, 8/17 losers have made the playoffs while 12/17 winners have returned to the playoffs. Additionally, 14 of the losers got worse and only one improved. 11 winners won fewer games after winning the Super Bowl and three improved.
Still, the Colts should not worry about a Raiders-like tailspin. There are notable stories of post-Super Bowl loss struggles, but losing the Super Bowl has not negatively impacted a team’s chance of success in the subsequent regular season in a statistically significant way (5% level…or even 10%). As for the playoffs…we’ll look at that next time.
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