Heat Can’t Survive the Gnarly North, Pivotal Offseason Awaits

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The wrath of the Raptors was unleashed in Sunday’s sudden-death second round showdown. Playing the biggest basketball game in Air Canada Centre history, Toronto kept Miami cold and coasted to a 116-89 shellacking.

Game 7

It was a day to forget for fans and members of Miami. Former Wildcat Kyle Lowry went supernova, scoring 35 points (11-20 FG, 5-7 3Pt, 8-11 FT) to go with nine dimes, seven rebounds, and four steals. Bismack Biyombo bombarded the boards and bullied the Heat’s small-ball lineups with 17 points (6-8 FG, 5-12 FT), 16 rebounds, and two blocks. Goran Dragic was simply no match for Lowry defensively, and minus Hassan Whiteside and Chris Bosh the paint was owned by Toronto.

With Dwyane Wade performing at a high level for most of the series and Dragic coming off a playoff career-high 30 points, there was certainly lots of hope that Miami could prevail—especially since the Heat came back from 3-2 down against the Hornets. However, Wade and company had home-court advantage for that contest, which was a blowout of similar proportions. It goes to show how tough it is to win a Game 7 on the road in the NBA.

Looking Ahead

Miami has some insanely difficult questions going forward, some of which are impossible to really discuss at this point. Obviously, Chris Bosh’s health is the first domino on deck. Hopefully the future Hall-of-Famer is able to return to the court without concern. Then again, it’s also possible that Bosh’s NBA career is finished.

From there, how much is Pat Riley willing to pay Hassan Whiteside? How much money is Wade, who made $20 million this season, going to command? What is Luol Deng worth?

For sake of argument, let’s assume that the best-case scenario happens and Bosh is deemed healthy by doctors. Miami has just under $50M on the books before re-signing any free agents. With the cap projected at $92M for 2016-17, that leaves Riley with plenty of money to throw around.

Still, Tyler Johnson is a restricted free agent who will likely receive fairly lucrative offers. Keeping Johnson, Wade, Whiteside, and Deng might not be feasible or reasonable long-term if Bosh is deemed healthy. Unless Wade takes a Tim Duncan-type discount, it’s probably impossible to bring all four of those guys back and fill out the rest of the roster without catapulting into the luxury tax.

After a full season, I think it’s fair to say that Wade and Dragic don’t provide ideal spacing on offense. If I had a nickel for every time I heard Charlotte’s Steve Clifford or Toronto’s Dwane Casey talk about packing the paint on defense against Miami, I’d be on my way to the penny arcade this morning with a big smile on my face.

The fact that Wade is not bringing out the best in Dragic and vice-versa makes Dragic’s defensive shortcomings that much more glaring. The 30-year-old Slovenian guard will only get worse on that end, and he was exposed even by hampered versions of Kemba Walker and Kyle Lowry in the postseason. This flawed backcourt pairing may very well put a cap on the Heat’s potential over the next several seasons even if Erik Spoelstra keeps staggering their minutes. The question at the end of the day is whether Riley is sacrificing the best possible future of this franchise in futile hopes to milk one more title out of Wade’s illustrious career.

The Heat overcame overwhelming obstacles before their mid-May elimination. Assuming (perhaps foolishly) Amar’e Stoudemire, Udonis Haslem, Gerald Green, Joe Johnson, and Dorell Wright’s time in South Beach has come to an end, Riley is set to bring in new some new blood via free agency. Miami does not own a draft pick this summer, so finding some undrafted gems or undervalued free agents will be paramount.

If Bosh is ultimately unable to return to the hardwood, this all changes, and Riley has more than enough cash to sign anyone on the market. Nevertheless, of all the teams in the league, there are very few who will face the burden of making so many difficult decisions. The awful news is that Miami might lose its best player in Chris Bosh. The good news is they nailed the 2015 NBA Draft by selecting Justice Winslow and Josh Richardson, and that Riley has done magical things many times before.

Despite all the doubts surrounding South Beach, with a touch of luck and a couple smart pivots, Riley could shape this squad into a postseason staple that transitions smoothly beyond the remaining years of Wade’s reign.

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