HeatCheck – The Struggle for the Playoffs

(Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

One team is getting hot at the right time to keep the wolves at bay.  The other has all but fallen out of contention altogether and frustration is sinking in.

Note: All records and data are accurate through March 17, 2014.

HeatCheck - The Struggle for the Playoffs
Team Season Record Last Week’s Record
Atlanta Hawks 30-35 3-0
The Hawks are finally putting things together and acting as if they want to make the playoffs. In February, the Hawks won 2 games. That’s out of 12 total games played. They started March off on a poor note as well, dropping 4 straight before finally getting their first win in over two weeks. Since then, the Hawks are 4-0, including 3-0 over the past week. It’s a good thing too because last week’s team on fire, the New York Knicks, are hot on their tail trying to make up ground before the playoffs begin.To begin the week, the Hawks faced off against Milwaukee, who haven’t won against a current playoff team since December 10th in Chicago. The odds were ever in their favor for this game, but the Bucks weren’t willing to lie down without a fight. In the end, the Hawks came away with a hard fought 5-point victory, mostly thanks to strong 4th quarters by both Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague, in addition to a fantastic night from 3-point land (44.8% as a team). Then on Saturday night the Hawks faced a Denver team that is all but out of the playoffs barring any miracles. Denver, too, proved to be a worthy opponent and made the Hawks earn it the whole night. Despite shooting a horrendous 58.6% from the FT line, the Hawks had a good overall shooting night and came away with a win, thanks in part to Paul Millsap’s monster game (24 pts, 11 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl, and 2 blk).

On Monday, the Hawks had a contest that had a lot more significance than it may have at the beginning of this season. Atlanta traveled to Time Warner Cable Arena to face the Bobcats in a game that could help increase their odds at a higher seed as Charlotte sat in 7th place in the East with Atlanta only a few games behind. In a game that both teams ideally would have liked to win for playoff positioning (and security), the Hawks really showed that they were serious about making the playoffs. The Hawks ended the Bobcats’ red-hot streak of 8 home wins as they received a huge game from Paul Millsap (28 points) as well as a shared scoring load from the rest of the team (5 players between 9 and 11 points). One of the biggest things they did was hold Al Jefferson, easily the best player this year for the surging Bobcats, to only 16 points on 6-15 shooting. This was the most meaningful game of the week for the Hawks as they played an Eastern Conference playoff team that they are vying for positioning with, so the Hawks have to feel good about the win.

Lottery Spin
The Hawks are nearly out of the Lottery conversation as Detroit slips further and further away from the playoffs. The only thing keeping them in it is the recent play of the Knicks, who are now fighting hard for the 8th spot and are a nearly imminent threat to the Hawks’ postseason chances.  The Hawks have been on a skid before these last four games, so they need to continue with this momentum in order to avoid another collapse. I expect the Hawks to finish 8th since we’re so close to the end of the season, but I would not be surprised at all if they fell to 9th and barely missed the playoffs.
HeatCheck - The Struggle for the Playoffs
Team Season Record Last Week’s Record
Boston Celtics 22-46 0-5
This is exactly what was expected from the Celtics. Not necessarily 5 losses in a row, but that they would be a team that struggled to win even in a terrible conference because of the constant moves and lack of chemistry on the team. Granted, the schedule over the past 5 contests wasn’t as favorable as it could be. The first contest was against the Pacers, with the league’s best record.  Andrew Bynum’s return to the court helped spoil the Celtics’ upset bid against Indiana as he posted 8 points and 10 rebounds in only 16 minutes of action.The following game was a home contest against the rising Knicks, who apparently showed up ready to fight. The Knicks, playing without their two best big men Amar’e Stoudamire and Tyson Chandler, rolled to a 116-92 victory in the Boston Garden with the help of 52.5% shooting from the field, including nearly 60% from 3. Boston couldn’t fare as well from the field and shot poorly from the charity stripe, but their defense wasn’t good enough either to even slow down the Knicks on this night. On the following night, the Phoenix Suns, one of this year’s biggest surprises, came to town with the playoffs on their minds as well. The Suns did a good job holding the Celtics to a season-low 30.9% from the field, including an atrocious 3-21 from behind the arc. Neither of the teams shot well in any aspect, except that Boston shot 19-21 from the free-throw line, but big games from Eric Bledsoe, PJ Tucker, and a great game from Markieff Morris off the bench helped the Suns seal the deal. The Suns made a big defensive stop up 3 late in the game to prevent an upset bid by the Celtics as well.

Highlights from the Suns vs. Celtics game, March 14, 2014

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sztzkM6cR8U]

On Sunday, the Celtics had a bit of a break when they were able to travel to New Orleans and take on another fellow lottery team.  What followed was the Celtics allowing the most points they have since January 7 in Denver when the Nuggets put up 129 points. New Orleans received an absolutely monster game from Anthony Davis (40 pts, 21 reb, 3 ast, 3 blk), and Boston’s Jeff Green went off for 39 points of his own. It was a superstar-caliber duel, but the Pelicans were able to claw their way to a victory in OT by a 121-120 margin. It’s a heartbreaking loss for the Celtics, but there was no answer for Davis down low, who according to ESPN recorded the only 40-20 game in the NBA this year.

The next day, Dallas received a visit from the green team from Beantown. The Mavs are currently in a battle for the playoffs in the West amidst a three-way race for the last 2 spots with Phoenix and Memphis.  Although neither team shot well, Dallas did just enough to come away with a 94-89 victory. Despite pulling down 57 rebounds, including 21 offensive boards, the Celtics were only able to put up 32 points in the paint, an inexcusable number considering the rebounding margin they had over the Mavs in this game. Considering three centers combined for 14-35 (40%) shooting for the Celtics, this has to be something that Brad Stevens focuses on with this group going forward.

Lottery Spin
Boston is nearly 10 games out of the 8th spot in the East and sitting firmly in 12th currently with 14 games left in their season. The question isn’t if they will make the Lottery, but how close to the 1st pick will they get? They’d currently pick 4th or 5th (tied with Utah) in the draft, which would land them a player like Dante Exum or Marcus Smart. Considering Rondo when healthy has proven to be possibly the best pure point guard in the league, Smart is likely not going to be the choice. Boston has to evaluate each player this offseason nonetheless, and young talents may be looked over for a potentially more favorable candidate from this loaded draft class. I expect the Celtics to continue their struggles somewhat and finish 12th in the East, possibly picking 5th in the draft (depending on the luck of the draw).

By Jon Elliott

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