HeatCheck – Week 3

Can Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard lead the Trail Blazers back to the Playoffs?
Can Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard lead the Trail Blazers back to the Playoffs?

HeatCheck - Week 3
Team Season Record Previous Week’s Record
Portland Trail Blazers 9-2 4-0
For a team that finished last season with a near-historic collapse, losing the last 13 games (all by 5 points or more, and most were double-digit losses), this season’s start is about all that you could ask for.  The Trail Blazers are a red hot 9-2 and in 2nd place in the very competitive Western Conference.  How good is this win streak though?  Not as good as it could be.  Their strength of victory over the past week is a paltry .390; Phoenix is the only team with a winning record that they’ve beaten during their current 7-game winning streak.  However, Lamarcus Aldridge is playing like an All-Star, Nicolas Batum has already had a triple-double and is maintaining great numbers, and Damian Lillard would smoke this year’s ROTY contest if he were eligible.

With a lineup of Aldridge, Batum, Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez, Portland doesn’t sound like a popular pick for a contender, but they are sure playing like it.  The biggest worry seems to be their bench; their starters + Mo Williams make up 86.1% of their total offense so far.  I think Thomas Robinson is loaded with potential, but he’ll need more minutes to prove it.  Will Barton and Meyers Leonard can make some noise, but injuries (Leonard) and a reserve role (Barton) have prevented their potential impact on the team.  Only 9 players have played serious minutes this year, so Portland will have to improve upon their depth in order to succeed this season and postseason.  However, I think they’ll be happy enough with this fantastic start to begin the 2013-14 campaign.

Lottery Spin
The Trail Blazers will most likely have to win 50+ games to make the playoffs, so consider their goal is 41-30 from this moment.  It’s very possible that they can make the playoffs this year, but it’s going to be extremely difficult, especially if Memphis, Denver, LA Lakers, and New Orleans can all get out of their funk and back into the winning categories.  I’m still expecting the Blazers to miss the playoffs, but not by much.  This team is a fringe playoff team and is only one or two parts away from being a high West seed in the near future.
HeatCheck - Week 3
Team Season Record Previous Week’s Record
Milwaukee Bucks 2-7 0-4
It was difficult to choose between the Bucks and the Wizards, but hat tip to the Bucks in this article for the worst week of potential Lottery teams.  Milwaukee kicked the week (Tuesday – Monday) off with a 23-point loss to the Heat in Miami.  Yes, you can say that it’s the Miami Heat, but they’ve clearly not been the same Heat team this year, at least not to start the season.  Then, the Bucks suffered a tough defeat in Orlando the following night, losing by 3 after running out to a 13-point first quarter lead.  On Friday, Roy Hibbert went on triple-double watch before finishing with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and ONLY 8 blocks.  The Pacers ran away with an easy 104-77 victory over the Bucks in that contest.  In game number 2 of their 2nd back-to-back within 5 days, the Bucks took on Oklahoma City in Milwaukee and lost by 13.  They allowed Ibaka to grab 20 boards.  For a team that averages only 39.8 rebounds per game, this is a big issue.

Individually, the Bucks desperately need Larry Sanders back.  He’s an elite low-post defender that is capable of leading the league in blocked shots, and he can average nearly a double-double given the right amount of time.  OJ Mayo is averaging 18.4 points per game, but nobody else is even averaging 14 a game.  Second-year power forward John Henson is showing improvement in the increased playing time he’s seeing due to Sanders’ injuries, especially in points and blocks.  Injuries to Brandon Jennings and Luke Ridnour have fored Nate Wolters into a temporary starting role at PG, and he’s performed pretty well for a rookie second-round pick.  However, the Bucks will need their best players to remain healthy in order to have a chance at turning around this season.

Lottery Spin
The Bucks have to be at full strength to have a shot at a playoff berth.  That being said, I don’t see it in the cards for them this year.  There are some nice pieces in place for the Bucks, especially if Brandon Knight can develop into a better point guard.  Larry Sanders and John Henson make a ridiculously good defensive combo down low, with Ekpe Udoh backing them up as the icing on the defensive cake so-to-speak.  Giannis Antetokounmpo has an abundance of talent, potential, and size; I’m just not sure when he’ll realize this potential.  Given the relative strength of the East this year, but also the parity so far, I’m expecting the Bucks to finish around 13th in their conference.

By Jon Elliott

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