Hello Heisman! D4L’s Heisman Trophy Projections

Technically, there’s still another week left in the college football season, but with nearly all of the conference races decided, talk has shifted to the most important vacancy in college football. No, not that. The 2009 Heisman trophy is as wide-open of a race as we’ve ever seen. Here’s a list of the front-runners (plus a couple of dark horse candidates) and how they stack up against each other.

The players I selected to profile are among the many being considered by voters and ESPN analysts with half a brain (note: Mark May’s Heisman contenders were not considered, as he is a bumbling moron who took one too many shots to the head during his playing days. Seriously, a defensive tackle? May makes Lou Holtzzsssstttthhh look like a genius.) These arguments are weak on purpose: we’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments. (Note: candidates are listed in alphabetical order to avoid bias and/or other general complaining).

Obama

Yeah, he’s not eligible.

 

Toby Gerhart – RB, Stanford
Pro: Gerhart has come on strong in the last couple of weeks, including a big game against Notre Dame on primetime TV last weekend. Gerhart put up 209 yards on 29 carries against the Golden Domers last week, and accounted for 4 (3 run, 1 pass) of Stanford’s 5 touchdowns in the 45-38 win. In Stanford’s other two big games (against Oregon and at USC) he racked up a combined 402 rushing yards and 6 TDs. He set the Pac-10 single-season record for rushing touchdowns with 26 and leads the (FBS) nation with 1736 rushing yards.

Con: The Heisman voters have a knack for voting for the best player on the nation’s best team (see: Jason White, Troy Smith) instead of selecting the nation’s most outstanding player (as the award is defined). Gerhart is arguably the nation’s most outstanding player, but Stanford’s 8-4 record may hold him back. Though Saturday’s game was on national TV, voters tend to overlook West Coast players not at USC.

Mark Ingram – RB, Alabama
Pro: Ingram has arguably been the front-runner for most of the year. Other than his last game, he’s been solid (if not outstanding) in big games for the Tide. Alabama’s 12-0 record is also a big plus, and Ingram is the only Heisman-worthy player on his team. Ingram is 6th in the nation (1st in the SEC) with 1429 rushing yards. His 12 TDs won’t hurt him, but 15+ would have been better.

Con: Ingram’s stinker of a game on Saturday really hurt him in the Heisman polls. Previously known as a big-game back, that reputation really took a nose dive after Ingram only accumulated 51 total yards (and 0 TDs) in Bama’s 26-21 win in the Iron Bowl. Voters will likely have submitted their ballots before Saturday’s SEC Championship game, so a big game against Florida won’t have the effect most people think. Only one sophomore has ever won the Heisman, and he had a year for the ages.

Colt McCoy – QB, Texas
Pro: McCoy had a monster game on Thursday night against rival Texas A&M. He is currently 9th in the nation with 3328 passing yards, and his 71.8% completion percentage is tops in the FBS. He’s thrown 27 TDs to only 9 interceptions. He also doesn’t have to compete with Sam Bradford’s 4720 yards, 50 TDs, and 8 INTs this year.

Con: Statistically, McCoy has had a “down” year after his other-worldly 2008 campaign when he threw for 3859 yards, 34 TDs, and 8 INTs. His highcompletion percentage is likely due to the short throws he is making. His 7.7 yards per attempt puts him into the 35-40 range among QBsthis year.

Note: I couldn’t find a 2009 highlight video for McCoy, so here’s a clipdisplaying his outstanding accuracy.

Golden Tate – WR, Notre Dame
Pro: Though WRs don’t usually get much Heisman hype, Tate has definitely been the most highlight-friendly of all the guys on this list. The Irish linehave lined Tate up anywhere he’s eligible. His 1496 receiving yards are good for 4th in the nation and his 15 TDs are 2nd to Bowling Green’s Freddie Barnes (who?), and he’s a near-lock for the Biletnikoff Award. He did just as much (if not more) damage when Notre Dame was missing WR Michael Floyd Megatron, Jr. for much of the season. He also put on a show on Saturday night, catching 10 passes for 201 yards and 3 TDs.

Con: If Gerhart has cause to concern at 8-4, Notre Dame’s 6-6 record will likely be the biggest reason why Tate isn’t invited to New York later this month. Also, QB Jimmy Clausen will likely steal any votes Tate would have received.

[Highlight video via Blue-Gray Sky]
Tim Tebow – QB, Florida
Pro: Second-coming of Jesus Christ. Makes his coach cry. Florida’s 12-0 record is probably his strongest case. Voters may give him the “career Heisman” that we often see with the Player of the Year award in college basketball (see: Hansbrough, Tyler). Yeah, it’s a stretch. I don’t see Tebow as Heisman-worthy this year.

Con: Second-coming of Jesus Christ. Makes his coach cry. Missed time or not, his stats dropped off considerably this year, and are a far cry from his 2007 Heisman stats. Tebow is one of the greatest college football players of all-time, but he’s not 2009’s most outstanding player.

Rob’s Vote: Golden Tate

Golden Tate

Tate has been absolutely jaw-dropping all year long, and is one of the few candidates who’s statistics actually belittle how outstanding he’s been. Without Tate, Notre Dame probably wouldn’t be going to a bowl game. Unfortunately, Tate probably has zero chance of winning in real life. He will undoubtedly have a big impact at the next level because of his amazing athleticism and versatility. Jimmy Clausen has been very good, but it’s Tate who makes Clausen better, not the other way around. Notre Dame’s 6-6 record is more a fault of the defense, who would have had trouble stopping the Little Giants.

Little Giants

Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments.

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