What’s Gordon Hayward worth? Who should the Jazz draft? How much does Andris Biedrins make per point scored? These questions, answered.
Hey Utah, how are things? It’s been a rough year, but that was expected right? The big guns moved on, leaving a lot of young players and untapped potential to assume bigger responsibilities and see if well, some of that potential could be realized. It’s the first year of a rebuilding project so the expectations are low, yet it has to feel a little disheartening watching Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap having career best years elsewhere.
But the past is the past, and cliches make for terrible transition sentences. Caring about records this season shouldn’t be bothered with; it’s all about player development, at least for the most part. The Jazz have a few things to consider the rest of the season and this summer, so let’s focus on that.
What do they do with Gordon Hayward?
Gordon Hayward is a pretty good basketball player (and also an avid League of Legends player). With Big Al and Milsap gone, Hayward’s role increased to the team’s primary scorer. The two sides talked about a contract extension, but when Hayward’s camp asked for $10 million or more a year, the Jazz decided to see how he’d manage in this increased role. The results? Scoring is up, efficiency is down. Hayward is averaging 16 points a game this season, shooting 40 percent. His minutes are up from 29 to 36 a game, and while its not too concerning that his field goal percentage is down from 43 percent last season, it is striking that his three point percentage has dropped from roughly 42 percent to 30. Why such a steep drop? He’s not hitting corner threes. Last season, 23 percent of Hayward’s attempted three point shots came from the corner, and he converted 40 percent of them. This season, 24 percent of his attempted three pointers are from the corner, but he’s only shooting 24 percent. Hayward is a capable shooter, but his numbers are suffering because is the only consistent scoring threat currently on the roster (Burke has that potential, but he isn’t there yet). The second leading scorer is Alec Burks at 13.7 points a game, and he’s played primarily from the bench. Teams are able to concentrate more on Hayward this season (remember, last season Jefferson and Milsap drew most of it), making it harder to get open shots.
So what do the Jazz do with him? He’s a restricted free agent so the Jazz will make the final decision. It’s hard to see him justifying a $10 million per year asking price now, but at $8 million he’s worth considering. Hayward seems best suited as the second or third scoring option which might make eight million a year sound a little steep, but the free agency market will likely inflate his contract, unless his free agency goes the route of Gerald Henderson, in which nobody outside his parent team offers him a contract, and he’s left settling with the Jazz on a shorter deal in the six to seven million range. That however, seems unlikely, since the Celtics were reportedly interested in trading for him during the deadline. Now this could’ve been a case of starting a rumor because it “makes sense” (Brad Stevens coached Hayward in college, Brad Stevens now coaches the Celtics, therefore Brad Stevens obviously wants Gordon Hayward); nonetheless, Hayward will be one of the top perimeter free agents this offseason, and will likely draw interest from a number of teams. If a team offers max money, it probably isn’t in Utah’s best interest to match.
Well who do they draft?
Outside of point guard and center (and even these positions aren’t off limits) the Jazz shouldn’t limit themselves when considering who to draft. Joel Embiid or Julius Randle may seem redundant with Kanter and Gorbert on the roster, but both players would improve a sparse second unit. Neither player should be on the top of their draft board, but should Wiggins or Parker be gone when it’s Utah’s turn, “settling” for either wouldn’t be a bad thing (though if the hype continues, Embiid will be gone as well).
And yes, Wiggins or Parker should be atop their list, but with the current standings Utah is looking at the 7th pick in the draft. Both will likely be gone, leaving the likes of Dante Exum, Gary Harris, or Rodney Hood available. Exum may feel redundant as well, but his size and skill set makes him more of a combo guard, and could be a potential pairing with Burke. Harris has scoring ability, and could lighten the load for Hayward. Utah also gets Golden State’s first rounder, which will be somewhere in the 20s. Players like James Young, Adreian Payne, and Kyle Anderson could be potential picks here.
But what about free agency?
The Jazz are going to have a lot of cap space this offseason after a few contracts expire. Richard Jefferson’s $11 million will be off the books and it’s unlikely the team will bring him back. Andris Biedrins, whose $9 million expiring contract equates to THREE MILLION DOLLARS per point scored, will also not be coming back. Along with other expiring contracts, the Jazz will have roughly $26-$27 million in cap space. A good portion will go to Hayward if he’s resigned, but beyond him, how aggressive should the Jazz be? There are plenty of big names to consider (bring back AK-47!!!) but realistically it’s hard to gauge how attractive the Jazz will be to free agents. The Jazz seem intent on seeing how the young core develops, so the more likely course will be short term, calculated signings for players that add depth. Don’t overpay, and don’t sign deals longer than two or three years. However, if a big name shows interest, it could be worth investing.
Does Ty Corbin come back?
This is tricky. Corbin took over after the team fired Jerry Sloan and has only posted a winning record once in essentially 2 1/2 seasons of coaching, and even so it wasn’t enough to make the playoffs (though they were in race until the last day of the season). The Jazz are bad this year, but were expected to be, so it’s tough to blame Corbin for the season. It could come down to how both the players and management feel towards him. Sounds strange, but Charlotte was an example of this at work; after players voiced concerns about Mike Dunlap’s coaching methods the team fired him somewhat unexpectedly. It’s interesting to note the team didn’t fire Corbin after their 1-14 start. A big part of that was Burke’s absence, and following that poor start the team went 13-15. Still, this isn’t about wins and losses but rather how he fits with the team. If they voice for him, Corbin could be back, but management may also decide a change should be made regardless.
The good news for Utah is a foundation is in place. Burke, Favors, and Kanter to a lesser extent are something to build around, and for the right price Hayward is as well. Another lottery pick adds to that mix of young talent, and with a lot of cap space opening up there are a lot of possibilities in free agency. While the playoffs aren’t a likely scenario next season, a deeper roster via draft picks and free agents should make Utah a more competitive team, and continue them in the right direction.
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