We all know what a remarkable job the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in 2010, improving their record by SEVEN games going from 3-13 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But the Bucs fell hard in 2011, going 4-12, and sadly, that statistically was expected by people who follow such numbers.
But what about year 4, and year 5? Well good news Bucs fans, because the studies show that the Bucs, like most of 20+ teams in NFL History, had winning records in year 4 and 5.
The study looks at teams with a minimum of 7 games improvement on year 1 towards year 2. The 3rd year sometimes resulted in a backwards spiral, similar to what happened to the Bucs this year in 2011. But out of 20 teams since the AFC/NFC Merger, 11 produced winning records in year 4, and 12 had winning records in year 5.
When you look only at teams from 2000 and up, 5 out of 7 teams improved in year 4 and 5. In fact, 4 of the 7 teams had losing records in year 3 like the Bucs did, and of those 4, 3 teams improved from year 3 to 4, and 2 of those three had winning records. The numbers are below, and these are just the teams since 2000.
|
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
y4% |
Year 5 |
y5 % |
|
CHICAGO, 2000-04 |
5-11-0 |
13-3-0 |
4-12-0 |
7-9-0 |
0.438 |
5-11-0 |
0.313 |
|
PITTSBUR, 2003-07 |
6-10-0 |
15-1-0 |
11-5-0 |
8-8-0 |
0.500 |
10-6-0 |
0.625 |
|
SANDIEG, 2003-07 |
4-12-0 |
12-4-0 |
9-7-0 |
14-2-0 |
0.875 |
11-5-0 |
0.688 |
|
BALTIMO, 2005-09 |
6-10-0 |
13-3-0 |
5-11-0 |
11-5-0 |
0.688 |
9-7-0 |
0.563 |
|
NEWORLE, 2005-09 |
3-13-0 |
10-6-0 |
7-9-0 |
8-8-0 |
0.500 |
13-3-0 |
0.813 |
|
MIAMI , 2007-10 |
1-15-0 |
11-5-0 |
7-9-0 |
7-9-0 |
0.438 |
6-10-0 |
0.375 |
|
ATLANTA, 2007-10 |
4-12-0 |
11-5-0 |
9-7-0 |
13-3-0 |
0.813 |
10-6-0 |
0.625 |
The study below shows ALL the teams even before the AFL/NFL merger, and the year 1,2 and 3 results are not shown, but all of them have a team with 7 or more games improvement from year 1 to year 2. The chart below shows year 2 and 3, but they consider those years 4 and 5 the way we are counting. They are counting -1, 0, 1, then 2 and 3, using the first season as a negative one, and the improvement year as year zero.
|
Team |
Year 2 |
Pct. |
Year 3 |
Pct. |
|
SD (AFL), 1962-66 |
9-2-3 |
.750 |
7-6-1 |
.536 |
|
OAK (AFL), 1962-66 |
8-5-1 |
.607 |
8-5-1 |
.607 |
|
BAL, 1974-78 |
10-4-0 |
.714 |
5-11-0 |
.313 |
|
NE, 1975-79 |
11-5-0 |
.688 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
|
DET, 1979-83 |
4-5-0 |
.444 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
|
SF, 1980-84 |
10-6-0 |
.625 |
15-1-0 |
.938 |
|
CIN, 1987-91 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
3-13 |
.188 |
|
DEN, 1990-94 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
7-9-0 |
.438 |
|
IND, 1991-95 |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
|
SD, 1991-95 |
11-5-0 |
.688 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
|
NYJ, 1996-00 |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
|
ATL, 1997-01 |
4-12-0 |
.250 |
7-9-0 |
.438 |
|
IND, 1998-02 |
6-10-0 |
.375 |
10-6-0 |
.625 |
|
STL, 1998-02 |
14-2-0 |
.875 |
7-9-0 |
.438 |
|
NO, 1999-03 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
|
CHI, 2000-04 |
7-9-0 |
.438 |
5-11-0 |
.313 |
|
PIT, 2003-07 |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
10-6-0 |
.625 |
|
SD, 2003-07 |
14-2-0 |
.875 |
11-5-0 |
.688 |
|
BAL, 2005-09 |
11-5-0 |
.688 |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
|
NO, 2005-09 |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
13-3-0 |
.813 |
|
MIA, 2007-10 |
7-9-0 |
.438 |
6-10-0 |
.375 |
|
ATL, 2007-10 |
13-3-0 |
.813 |
10-6-0 |
.625 |
|
TB, 2009-10 |
?? |
?? |
?? |
?? |
|
SF, 2010-11 |
?? |
?? |
?? |
?? |
|
Totals |
198-137-4 |
.590 |
186-160-2 |
.537 |
Work on bottom chart done by Tampa Bay Buccaneers site and posted on www.buccaneers.com. Top chart is taken from bottom chart, and augmented with stats from NFL.com.
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