Holt Vs. Walters

Last September, the Indians made full use of the expanded rosters by showcasing a few prospects while maintaining a few injured veterans like David Murphy, Ryan Raburn and Jason Giambi on the roster. Cleveland had plenty of worthwhile prospects worth the time, including Jesus Aguilar, J.B. Shuck and a pair of outfielders in Tyler Holt and Zach Walters. While Aguilar and Shuck didn’t quite prove themselves (Shuck has since been released), Holt and Walters each showed different sides of potential that makes them possible additions to the 2015 Opening Day roster.

Considering the addition of Brandon Moss and the fact that Raburn, Murphy and Nick Swisher are all still on the roster, it is possible that neither Walters or Holt will fit on the roster (despite the fact that both are significantly better in every way than Raburn and better defensively than Murphy), but chances are, room could be made for just one. The question remains then, which one would that be?

When it comes down to it, both Holt and Walter are currently 25 years old and have much potential, but otherwise, the two outfielders couldn’t be much more different. Based on expectations, Holt is closer to his Major League ceiling, but Walters has a higher overall ceiling. At his best, Holt could be expected to be one of the top defensive outfielders in the league at any outfield position, but will likely never have much power or reach base often. Walters, on the other hand, is currently a huge liability. He strikes out far too much (48 times in 137 plate appearances last year), hits for a low average (.193 career average), rarely walks (just 9 over in 2014) and plays poorly at every single position he plays (of which there are many) defensively.

Since both Walters and Holt have minor league options left, the decision of who makes the roster should be a fair one, unlike the arbitrary decisions that established the Indians rotation for next year. With that, the Indians could chose to go with the player that provides an ability the Indians don’t currently have much of on the roster in Tyler Holt. With Raburn, Murphy and Swisher, the Indians have a bench/DH filled with medium power potential, high strike out ratio hitters. What they don’t have is an extra outfielder who is a solid defender or a speedy pinch runner. Michael Bourn in center field is aging and can’t be expected to play 100% every day and even with Michael Brantley sliding over to take his place, the Indians have no other solid defensive options for fourth outfielder.

If Holt were to make the roster, he could be a daily player even though he wouldn’t be a starter. Defensively, he is better than every outfielder but Brantley (and that is arguable) and he could be used as a late inning defensive replacement on a regular basis. He would also be a suitable pinch runner for Yan Gomes, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Moss, Raburn, Murphy or Swisher late in games. While doing this could require some shifting around defensively, the Indians are pretty versatile in the infield and in most scenarios Holt could stay in the game defensively after pinch running. The numbers shown to the top right show both Holt and Walters production values in terms of runs contributed and runs saved over 150 games and replacing Moss (career 4.5 UZR/150) or Murphy (-16.2 UZR/150 in 2014) even for an inning a night, would ultimately add up to a great difference.

Walters is a completely different animal. In 2014, combined between Washington, Cleveland and AAA he combined for 24 home runs in 97 games and the year before he hit 29 in 134 in AAA alone. Not only does Walters remind people of Grady Sizemore because of his face, but his swing as well. Walters has a huge, but fast swing that leads to the all or nothing outcome of a lot of strike outs and a lot of home runs. The latter is what particularly impressed the Indians in August of 2014 when he hit six home runs in 12 games. Unfortunately, he then went 16 consecutive games without another blast until hitting one in his final game of the year. While Holt may not have the potential that Walters has, Walters hit under .200 during the past season and there has to be at least some worry that he will continue that level of play into the next year.

Another plus for Walters is not his defense per say, but his versatility. What he misses in positional expertise he makes up for in positions. In the minors, Walters played at least 40 games at each second, third and short stop and in the pros he has been primarily a corner outfielder, playing both right and left. As noted above, he is a poor defender there, but like Mike Aviles, he would be a suitable fill in all around the diamond. While Holt would be the first and only option if Bourn were to be injured, Walters could be a replacement for almost every non-pitcher or catcher on the team.

There is still some time before Spring Training for the Indians to relieve themselves of some salary by trading one of the low value outfielders, but if they don’t, the Indians will be able to chose just one or the other to start the season. Based on previous roster decisions, there is a good chance that neither will make it without an injury to another player, but hopefully, one will. Considering that the Indians look to contend in 2015, that player should be Tyler Holt. With nothing against Walters, he could use a little more seasoning in AAA while Holt is already able to produce at a Major League level. In addition, the fact that Holt has a more unique skill set also makes him more valuable as he wouldn’t be directly competing with a large group of other players for playing time. There was no bigger problem with the 2014 than the defense and implementing players like Holt on a regular basis could go a long way in fixing that problem.