During the broadcast of the Orioles-Royals series Tuesday, I was struck by a stat mentioned regarding the Royals and their small-ball ways. Since 1985, only one team (2009 Yankees) has won the World Series after leading MLB in home runs during that regular season.
For Doug Melvin, that number (1) should be a keen warning. Or at least it should serve as an enthusiastic reminder, a plea if you will, because Doug seems not to be interested in home run-averse strategies. The bitter truth is the home run means nothing if you don’t win.
The Texas Rangers were second in MLB in homers in 2011 with 210, but they lost the Series to the Cardinals. The Brewers themselves led the league in homers in 2007 with a whopping 231. The record of that year’s club? 83-79, or one game better than 2014’s team. No playoffs.
The basic lesson here is that home runs are sexy and cool, but they don’t bring home the bacon. The Brewers have seemingly been built, even before Doug Melvin’s time, in a type of “shock and awe” fashion in which the Brewers blitz opponents with a power barrage teams are unused to seeing. Even now they are still thought of by some as “the AL team that plays in the NL,” mostly due to the character of their roster’s construction. The problem with blowing away an opponent with the force of mortar and artillery alone, however, is that eventually you get outflanked and ambushed.
Just look at how well waiting for the three-run homer is working out for the 2014 Orioles in the ALCS. The Orioles led MLB in homers this year, as well as in 2013 and many other years, but they are getting punked by the Royals’ simpler weaponry including sacrifice flies, stolen bases and moving the runners over. The Royals were dead last in homers in 2014 with 95, the only team under 100.
The Brewers need to diversify their weaponry. They need bows, slingshots and catapults, cap guns, air rifles and hand grenades. They need bloops, line drives, infield hits, doubles and triples to accompany the occasional home run. They need to beat the enemy with any and all means. If one thing isn’t working, well, move on to something else.
It’s not critical that the Brewers abandon the home run entirely. That would be unrealistic and somewhat silly at a stadium like Miller Park. But like the Royals of 2014, they should not expect the home run. They should not seek the home run. They should let the home run come to them by hitting the ball hard regardless of whether the ball drops on one side of the fence or the other. They should do or do not, as Yoda says. Not try.
The sooner Doug Melvin puts together a more balanced, complete team, the closer the Brewers will be to a slump-proof squad that can’t be defeated as regularly by lesser teams despite its impressive firepower. It will be tough, but Melvin should work hard to add at least one solid hitter who hits for average this offseason, if not two. Hey, maybe move a non-contact hitter like Carlos Gomez out of the leadoff spot. Because, really, there’s nothing sexy or cool about pop-outs or strikeouts, even if a hitter’s helmet flies off in the process.
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