Like it or not, Houston’s 2016 destiny is tied to its season opener versus Oklahoma. If the Cougars want to be in the playoff conversation, they must win. A loss doesn’t end their season, but likely ends their already slim playoff chances.
Here are six scenarios for the the game ranked from best possible outcome to worst:
1. Houston wins handily
This is the best scenario of the bunch. Houston trades blows early with Oklahoma but has the talent to pull away for a 34-20 win.
For reference, in 2011 the No. 7 Boise State Broncos took on No. 22 Georgia in Atlanta, solidly winning 35-21. Boise State made it to No. 4 that year before losing late to TCU. Had they won that game, they likely would have finished undefeated and in the top 4.
2. Houston escapes with a close win
Houston is unable to match the physicality of the Sooners, but hangs around due to some lucky breaks and the talent of Greg Ward Jr., who scrambles 20 yards into the end zone with 28 seconds left to put the Cougars up 31-30. QB Baker Mayfield’s pass is intercepted by Tyus Bowser at the 40 yard-line, ending Oklahoma’s comeback.
By season’s end, no one would remember how Houston won the game, only that it won. In 2010, Utah squeaked by No. 15 Pittsburgh in overtime, 27-24, in its season opener. Pittsburgh ended up 8-5 that season. Utah ended up No. 5 before losing to No. 3 TCU and Notre Dame.
In 2011, Houston edged a mediocre UCLA team that somehow won the Pac-12 South. Houston stormed through Conference USA and earned a No. 6 ranking before losing in the championship game to Southern Miss. Had they won, they would have made a BCS bowl game, but not the top 4. They should have a tougher schedule this year.
3. Houston crushes Oklahoma
In this scenario, Houston bullies the Sooners, cruising to an easy 31-7 victory. Backup quarterback Austin Kendall comes off the bench and throws a garbage touchdown against the Cougar reserves in the last moments.
The reason for the low ranking is that such a dominant performance would say more about Oklahoma than Houston. It would mean that Oklahoma was not very good and likely not ready for Big 12 championship dreams, bringing down Houston’s overall strength of schedule.
There really isn’t much reference for this type of upset. In 2004, Utah dismantled an Arizona team that ended up just 3-8. In 2010, TCU crushed Baylor, which finished 7-6. Utah finished undefeated, but only No. 6 going into its BCS bowl. TCU finished the regular season No. 3, which would have gotten it into the playoff.
4. Oklahoma survives in a close win
Similar to scenario No. 2, Ward Jr. scrambles and scores with 28 seconds to go. Mayfield’s throw over the middle is tipped by Bowser, but the receiver catches the deflected ball, streaking across the 50 to the 31-yard line. Kicker Austin Seibert hits the 47-yard field goal as time expires and Oklahoma wins a nail biter.
This scenario makes it difficult, but not impossible for Houston to attain its goals. In 2012, Northern Illinois lost by a single point to Iowa at home. It then proceeded to reel off 12 straight wins and an Orange Bowl berth. The Huskies did not receive a national ranking until the end of November, going into the bowl ranked No. 15.
5. Oklahoma wins handily
Houston keeps it interesting until the second quarter, when a physically superior Oklahoma begins to pull away. The Sooners shut down the running game and contain Ward Jr. most of the game, cruising in the second half to a 42-27 victory.
This scenario is bad, but many goals would still be attainable. A playoff berth would be gone, but Houston could still attain a New Year’s Access bowl, especially with a win over Louisville and losses by the other G5 champions.
The 2014 Boise State Broncos got whipped by No. 19 Ole Miss 35-13 but rebounded to finish the season 11-2 with a Fiesta Bowl appearance. A loss by undefeated Marshall late in the season solidified the Broncos as the top choice.
6. Oklahoma throttles Houston
Things get out of hand early and the Sooners cruise to an easy 45-7 victory.
Obviously this is the worst-case scenario. Houston would become an afterthought the rest of the season, no longer favored in several contests and with a lot of work to do to right the ship. Houston might still win the AAC, but would likely suffer a few stinging losses along the way.
As for reference, I can’t come up with any where a team was destroyed and still made an Access or BCS bowl. In 2014, Northern Illinois was crushed by a 7-6 Arkansas team, 52-14. It rebounded to win the MAC, but ended up in the Boca Raton Bowl.
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