After the Rajon Rondo trade most fans are expecting the Celtics to become the bottom feeders on the Sixers and Jazz level. However, I beg to differ. Not only are the Celtics still a pretty talented bunch, but in this weak conference they are still very in on a playoff spot, potentially even 7th seed. If this ends up being the case, Boston would get the experience it needs to help boost the morale of the city, and its young players while making a name for itself around the league, even if it does turn into an early exit.
If you remember a few years back, in the big 3 era, when David West was a FA he was recruited hard by the Celtics organization including Pierce and KG, but he ultimately picked the Pacers. When asked why he chose the Pacers over Boston he said it was because they were an up and coming team, and he wanted to be part of that process. Those same Pacers were beat in five games by the Bulls in the first round, fighting toe-to-toe with them until that final game. Those Pacers were 37-45 and finished as the 8th seed in the East, they were 13-28 on the road, but yet David West chose them over the 56-26 Boston Celtics. Players recognize potential, and by making it to the postseason the Celtics could show just that to a potential free agent.
With the offseason set to be a big one for the Celtics, they will have more cap space then they have ever had in the Ainge era, a stockpile of draft picks (including 4 in the first round in 2016), and a hefty trade exception that could be used in a variety of ways. Let’s talk about how Ainge could build his roster through Free Agency, and the Draft. Let’s take a look at the market first.
Free Agency
First thing is first, do not make anymore trades till the end of the season! I know after the Rondo trade most people are anxious to just strip it all down, and start over, but that is not the way to go. Making the playoffs are important when attracting free agents as I previously stated, Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, Marcus Thorton, Brandan Wright, and Evan Turner will all play a role in helping us get there. Second, the market is a cold world, we traded our best asset, and came away with two role players and draft pick, what do you really think your going to get for role players – more picks and expiring contracts? We already have that. If Ainge is smart he’ll allow the team to stay the course for the year. With Jeff Green likely to opt out of his contract and Thorton, Wright, Bass, Crowder, all with deals that expire at the end of the year, you’re looking at roughly 30 million dollars off the books next year.
The most realistic free agents we can get are Kwahii Leonard and Jimmy Butler. I focus specifically on Butler because he’s 25, scoring 21.9 ppg along with 3.3 apg, and 6.0 rpg and he defends like crazy. Butler is someone who you could build a team with, and the Bulls know this, but they also owe just over 57 million in contracts – without counting Kirk Hinrich who has a player option, or Aaron Brooks and Mike Dunleavy who are both in the last years of their contracts. Chicago still can offer Butler the max contract (in the 4 year, $70 million range) he deserves, but it would most likely come at the cost of the necessary rotation pieces and depth (Hello, Derrick Rose).
The Celtics could approach this in two ways, they can recruit Butler hard, point to their youth movement, how he would be the main part of the team, how they’re the up-and-coming team that just made the playoffs and are looking for that one final piece to make them true contenders. Ainge could point to how we’re not in a division with Cleveland so the chances of winning the division and getting at least the first round of home-court are very possible, and how he, Smart, and Bradley could form one of the best defensive trios the league has ever seen.
We would then throw max money at him, and hope he accepts. If he does we could wait and see if Chicago matches, or talk to Chicago and offer them something in a sign-and-trade. I think the best deal we could offer them is two of our four 1st round picks in the 2016 draft, most likely ours and Brooklyn because they’ll likely be the best ones, along with Phil Pressey and James Young. Pressey would be the perfect backup to Rose, his pass-first, he plays gritty defense, and his on a cheap contract. With James Young, we preach the undeniable offensive game, and leave it to Thibs to develop his game that clearly has a lot of potential. Then with the two first rounders you give the Bulls a chance to continue to build their team while contending, something a lot of contenders don’t have the luxury of doing. Wether they agree or not would still be up for grabs, but chances are they say yes because they would be acquiring Young, cheap talent, along with valuable first round picks that they themselves could package or use to continue to build. So after some time Butler comes to Boston, but even then we still would need some pieces, specifically a rim protecting center, that’s where June comes in.
2015 NBA Draft
As it stands today the Celtics would own the 10th pick in the draft, and the 24th pick in the draft. To keep things simple, let’s just assume that this stays the same all the way till June. According to NBA Draft Net the Celtics would take Montrezel Harrell with the 10th pick, and Willey Cauley-Stein would go 11th to the Nuggets. Based on needs, I think the Celtics would most likely draft Willey-Cauley Stein, and finally grab their young, tall, rim-protecting center that they’ve been praying for since Perkins left.
With the second pick in the first I would look for a guy who could come off the bench and really give you a spark on both ends of the floor – Norman Powell. Powell is a 6-4 shooting guard from UCLA with a 6’11 wingspan. He’s an excellent perimeter defender and on the offensive end he uses his athleticism and strength to attack the rim, and has ability to finish through contact. His shot has been a bit inconsistent during his years, but so far this season he’s shooting 46.7% from the three, and averaging 17.7 points per game. Powell has the type of play style that fits excellent into Brad Stevens system, and he’ll compliment the defensive identity that Smart,Bradley, and Butler would bring to the table.
Finally with our only 2nd round pick, I would select Kentucky combo guard Andrew Harrison. Believe it or not, both twins have a bad rap around the scouting community and are seen as enigma’s because of the perception that they show bad attitudes on the court. However, just based on pure skill I don’t think there’s anyway we pass him up. At 6-6 with a big body, Harrison is able to get to the lane and draw fouls frequently. He utilizes the pick and roll very well and though his jump shot is mediocre his creativity to get to the rim, and ability to knock in free throws can off-set some of that. Also keep in mind that Kentucky is a powerhouse college team that will most likely be in the championship for the second straight year, he will be apart of both those teams, and that type of big game experience is something that you look for in young players. He’s not your typical pass-first point guard, and does have the tendency to dribble a little too much, but having faith in Stevens, I believe that he can help alleviate that. By drafting Harrison you ensure that after the 2015-2016 season is up, you have a reliable option at your backup point position. By then Harrison would have some NBA experience, and be ready to lead the second unit when called on.
Final Product
After a successful wheeling and dealing by Danny Ainge the 2015-2016 Celtics roster would look like this:
Point Guards: Marcus Smart, Jameer Nelson, Andrew Harrison
Shooting Guards: Avery Bradley, Norman Powell
Small Forwards: Jimmy Butler, Evan Turner, Gerald Wallace, (Jae Crowder)
Power Forwards: Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk
Centers: Willey-Cauley Stein, Tyler Zeller
As you can see, it’s not a full roster and we would have three spots left to fill. I would bring back Jae Crowder because he’s young, he plays defense, and the 3 and D potential is something that you want to have on your bench. With the remaining two spots I would just bring on the strongest training camp invites, and have them go back and forth between Maine and with the team along with Andrew Harrison. So at the end of the day, if cards are played right the Celtics could very well become a top four seed in the East. It will just need patience, poise, a playoff run this year, and one helluva a recruitment pitch.
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