Can the Pittsburgh Pirates avoid Tommy John woes?

What does the alarming Tommy John surgery rate mean for the Pittsburgh Pirates?

Spring training is less than two weeks away for the Pittsburgh Pirates, which means reports will soon start pouring in of players suffering season-ending injuries and surgeries, specifically to Tommy John surgery. According to a database maintained by Jon Roegele, there have been 1,169 such surgeries since its namesake first went under the knife of Dr. Frank Jobe in 1974.

If it seemed like the Pirates were plagued by the surgery bug in 2015, that’s because they were.  In the Jim Benedict era (the former assistant to the general manager critical to pitcher development in the organization), the Pirates had 33 players from the Dominican Summer League up through the majors lose time to Tommy John surgery since 2009. From 1974 to 2008, they had just 15. In fact, no team has had more since 2009.

What hurt the most was how Tommy John claimed six players at the AAA level or higher in the last two years. As it stands, Casey Sadler and Angel Sanchez will miss all of 2016. It is doubtful that Nick Kingham will be facing any competition before late summer, if he sees any game action at all this season. Brandon Cumpton was stellar in 2013 over five spot starts before having a disappointing 2014. Perhaps the greater disappointment was the setback he suffered in September when the Pittsburgh Pirates announced Cumpton would undergo subacromial decompression surgery forcing him to miss a second consecutive season. Duke Welker was great in his extremely brief 2013 appearance. After he left fans hoping for more, he remains a free agent completely off the radar.

If Ryan Vogelsong and Jeff Locke leave the fans hoping for more in 2016, Jameson Taillon will be very much on the radar as he seeks to return to competitive baseball after Tommy John and hernia surgeries forced him to spend two years rehabbing and furthering his development. The Pirates seem to be remaining optimistic about Taillon’s chances to return at least close to the level that made him an elite pitching prospect prior to his setbacks. As an organization, they have plenty of reasons to be optimistic, despite the alarming number of Tommy John surgeries.

Director of Minor League Operations Larry Broadway certainly seemed very optimistic at the end of last season, as told to Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review. “This [2015] was one of the best seasons overall since I’ve been here,” Broadway said. “We’re average age or younger for each level, we put four clubs in the playoffs and all of our full-season clubs were over .500. We had some Tommy Johns that hurt, but other guys stepped up. We’re looking forward to that dust settling and getting those guys back next year. We feel really good about a lot of those guys coming back.” [Source link]

The Pirates certainly have a lot to be excited about, although none are more intriguing than Taillon. Originally anticipated to make it to the show in 2014, the setbacks he faced have forced the Pirates to make alternate arrangements to keep a rotation spot warm until he’s ready sooner or later this season.

The real questions are, why have the Pittsburgh Pirates suffered so many cases of Tommy John surgery since 2009, and what are other teams doing to avoid the season-ending surgery?

There is no mold into which pitchers that have Tommy John surgery fit. Even before the first surgery, teams have been trying to figure out why certain players suddenly need this operation that by no means guarantees a player will be able to return to their previous performance. Sure, scouts and statistical analysis experts have speculated as to what some of the warning signs may be: overwork in terms of number of innings or pitches, drop in average fastball velocity, dramatic change in movement on one or more pitches without coaching to such ends, or a change in windup or delivery mechanics.

But does the number of innings really impact the risk of an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament of the elbow joint?

I took a look at how the Pittsburgh Pirates compare to the teams with the lowest number of Tommy John surgeries since 2009, with the exception of the Brewers that lacked three starting pitching prospects in MLB.com’s top 30 rankings that had been in the system at least three seasons. While far from a truly scientific comparison, I looked at the top three starting pitcher prospects in each organization that had been in the system for at least three seasons. Just for the record, the trio for the Pirates was Tyler Glasnow, Taillon, and Kingham. The results are below.

The Pirates’ trio averaged 16.7% more innings per player per season than the highest out of the lowest teams. While that may not seem like a large amount, 18 innings is roughly the equivalent of three triple-A starts. It’s not completely ridiculous to assume that less innings for starting pitching prospects means fewer serious injuries. For a team with as many pitching prospects as the Pirates, reducing the game workload in favor of more bullpens and coaching sessions would certainly be a feasible option.

If there is something for the organization’s pitching coaches to work on, it’s pitch speed variation. All too often high school players learn how to throw a curve-ball too early, develop minor mechanical issues, and get into a habit of trying to throw the ball as hard as possible. Again, these minor issues don’t necessarily precipitate injury issues, specifically Tommy John surgery, but they do dramatically increase the risk. The Pirates have been heavily favoring pitchers that can bring the heat on their fastball the last couple years, both in the draft and out of it.

There are few things in baseball like a hitter looking completely inept swinging late at a high fastball that knocks the dust off of the catcher’s mitt, but pitch speed variation is critical for a player to be able to have a successful and durable career.

Of the top 15 pitchers in difference between average fastball velocity and max velocity since 2013, very few have had serious injury issues, especially related to their pitching arm. Many have been at least moderately successful, while eating innings each season. Of the Pirates pitchers for whom data exists that have had Tommy John surgery during the last two years, not a single one had a velocity variance greater than 2.57 mph. Brandon Cumpton held that mark in 2013. Jameson Taillon held the alarmingly low mark of 0.84 mph in 2012. All of the data available on the prospects is compiled in the table below.

While pitch speed variation is something successful pitchers tend to learn from experience in the majors, it might benefit the Pittsburgh Pirates to put a greater emphasis on developing greater variance before the injury bug comes to bite them. Many organizations attempt to avoid overburdening pitching prospects with too many things to work on at a time, but it could pay off in the long run with healthier and more productive prospects at the expense of extending the development time table.

If the proposal seems minor and counter-productive, imagine if implementing these measures would have kept the pitching prospects healthy? Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, and Casey Sadler would have had a chance to make the roster, or at the very least provide more depth. Although Taillon would have probably been delayed a year, he would have likely made his appearance last season. Kingham might have been able to make his debut at some point around the All-Star break as a better-rounded pitcher with a higher projection. Instead, fans can only hope the Pirates manage to figure out a solution to their pitcher development injury woes.

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