The Toronto Raptors were one LeBron James away from reaching the NBA Finals this season. Now armed with a top-10 lottery pick, the question becomes how should they use the pick to get over that last hurdle?
The 2015-2016 season was easily the best in Toronto Raptors history. It was their first season in which they accumulated more than 50 wins (56). And their trip to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they were eliminated in six games, was the farthest they’ve ever gone in the playoffs.
There’s no doubt this season was a success for the Raptors, especially when compared to every other year of their franchise history, but to suggest the city of Toronto is content with a Conference Finals appearance would be a serious misjudgment of the Raptors fan base.
So how do they get to the NBA Finals? It’s a question plenty of teams never figured out, and for this Toronto team, finding their answer may be especially tricky.
LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers made relatively easy work of Toronto, and their team should still be mostly intact come next season. James (along with James Jones) has reached the NBA Finals a stunning six years in a row, so knocking off the team that employs him is a task no Eastern team has accomplished this decade.
There’s also the serious concern that the Raptors may have reached their relative ceiling. Kyle Lowry is 30 years old, and although he did warm up as they progressed through the first couple rounds, he was inconsistent throughout the playoffs. Their second best player, DeMar DeRozan, is an imperfect and inefficient short-range scorer who is entering free agency this offseason. There is a strong chance DeRozan will command a max offer on the market, so re-signing him could take up a significant portion of Toronto’s cap room. The rising cap makes that contract more affordable, but will DeRozan ever add the range that would make him much more effective come playoff time? Neither Lowry nor DeRozan shot 40 percent from the field in their 20 playoff games, a very disappointing stat for the two stars of the team.
Bismack Biyombo emerged as a force in the playoffs. As an unrestricted free agent, he will likely command upwards of $15 million a year, making him another player who will become much more expensive and ultimately less likely than DeRozan to remain in Toronto. Jonas Valanciunas was strong early in the playoffs before going down injured, and he is still a young player whose game has room to grow and reach another level, but he is really the only player of consequence on Toronto that hasn’t reached his ceiling.
Players like Lowry, DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, and Patrick Patterson were all big contributors throughout the season and in the playoffs, but it also isn’t likely any of them take another step in their careers that would push Toronto over the top.
But Toronto does have a big opportunity in the 2016 draft. For most contenders, the draft typically isn’t a great tool for them to improve their squads, as the late first-round picks very rarely become big-time contributors–but the Raptors are a different story this year. Toronto is in possession of the No. 9 overall pick, courtesy of the New York Knicks, who had to swap picks with Denver and then give Denver’s draft slot to Toronto.
Possessing a top-10 lottery pick is a rare and valuable commodity for a contender, as it not only gives them an opportunity to add a quality, young talent, but that talent will also be on a affordable and long-term contract, a huge bonus for a team that will have to commit a lot of money to the rest of its players.
If the Raptors could nail their pick and land a contributor, it could make a world of a difference. In 2013 the Thunder, an annual contender, got the 12th overall pick, coincidentally from Toronto, and used it to select Steven Adams, who was a crucial part of their run this playoffs where they defeated the Spurs and came within minutes of going to the Finals instead of the Warriors.
Can the Raptors get their Steven Adams? The biggest need on the roster comes either at center or power forward, with the desire to add a talented big man being the clear focus here. Biyombo is likely to depart, and the likes of Patrick Patterson, Luis Scola, Jason Thompson, and James Johnson at power forward has never been a long term solution for the Raptors. Luckily, while this isn’t considered a particularly deep draft, the strength of the late lottery is certainly the big men, as there are a few intriguing options that could or should be available at nine.
Marquese Chriss is one of my favorite players in the draft. However, his stock has skyrocketed in the past few weeks, and he is unlikely to be available when the Raptors are on the clock. Players that should still be on the board include the likes of Henry Ellenson, Jakob Poeltl, Skal Labissiere, Deyonta Davis, and Domantas Sabonis. All five are unique talents that could fit with the Toronto Raptors in different ways.
Ellenson has regularly been the highest regarded of this group, The freshman out of Marquette is an extremely talented offensive player. He struggled from deep at Marquette, but outside shooting is going to be a large part of his game, and when coupled with his already well put together post game, he has the making of a versatile big man who can play at either power forward or center. His defensive abilities are a concern though.
Poeltl is huge. The 7-1 center would add a strong, dominant interior presence to the Raptors frontcourt. He was one of the best players in college basketball last year at Utah, holding a 31.6 PER for the season. Poeltl is a prototypical center, as his range is largely limited to shots near the rim, but his strong post game makes him still viable on offense. I’m not sold on his fit with Valanciunas, but Jakob Poeltl should come in right away and make a difference.
Skal Labissiere was up with Ben Simmons before the season began, but his year at Kentucky was one to forget. He was incredibly inconsistent, and subsequently tumbled down the rankings. The talent and potential is still there, as Labissiere is a slim 7-footer who can play the four or the five and has shown off decent range. He is a project player, which may not be appealing to a team trying to reach the Finals, but Skal’s ceiling may be hard to ignore.
Deyonta Davis is another player I am particularly high on. Davis was behind some talented and established players at Michigan State, but in his time on the court he showed himself as an impressive rebounder and shot-blocker. His limited minutes mean he is also a project, but his size should enable him to be an early-impact player on the defensive end, which is where Toronto likely needs the most help. Davis has also shown the ability to step out and hit jumpers.
Sabonis is another late-riser. He hasn’t been mocked as high as the Raptors yet, but Sabonis is now consistently popping up in the back end of the lottery, and he is certainly a talented player. He made his mark in the NCAA tournament, where he outplayed Poeltl in a head-to-head matchup. Sabonis has excellent footwork and a good body, giving him the ability to deal with a lot of different players. His offensive game isn’t very refined yet, but Sabonis could quietly end up being one of the steals of this draft.
The Raptors could also trade their pick, but I don’t see it happening. The market for a lottery pick has become absurd, and the depth in this draft isn’t really there for teams to want to trade in to the ninth spot.
Toronto is a tough spot with the direction of their franchise. This offseason could make or break the success of this current team, and step one for general manager Masai Ujiri is nailing the ninth overall pick.
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