The “Drew Brees is declining” narrative is grossly overblown. That’s a view I’ve been attached to the last two years. But it’s always important for me to at least educate my stances with some form of fact. That’s what I dug deeper with today. Here are some salient statistics to consider:
| Year | Attempts | Comp % | Yards | Yards per pass | TD % | INT % | Rating | Sack % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 554 | 64.3 | 4,418 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 96.2 | 3.1 |
| 2007 | 652 | 65.7 | 4,423 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 89.4 | 2.4 |
| 2008 | 635 | 65.0 | 5,069 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 96.2 | 2.0 |
| 2009 | 514 | 70.6 | 4,388 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 109.6 | 3.7 |
| 2010 | 658 | 68.1 | 4,620 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 90.6 | 3.7 |
| 2011 | 657 | 71.2 | 5,476 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 110.6 | 3.5 |
| 2012 | 670 | 63.0 | 5,177 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 96.3 | 3.7 |
| 2013 | 650 | 68.6 | 5,162 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 104.7 | 5.4 |
| 2014 | 659 | 69.2 | 4,952 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 97.0 | 4.2 |
| 2015 | 627 | 68.3 | 4,870 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 101.0 | 4.7 |
When you look at these numbers, first off, it’s incredible how consistent Brees has been. I tried to pick and choose relevant numbers to paint the picture of his performance. Even those who have criticized his play in 2014 are somewhat off base. He may have lost the deep ball, sure, but the stats say he is performing at the same level as always – given maybe a normal degree of variance in some areas.
Looking at 2015 in particular, here are some conclusions:
Attempts: He threw 627, his lowest since 2009. That’s largely due to him missing one game. Had he played in that game, it’s safe to say his passing attempts would have been pretty much the exact same as every year since from 2010 on (and the same as 2007 and 2008). It’s worth noting that in all these seasons, the team had the most success when he threw the least amount of passes. The NFC Championship game run in 2006 and the Super Bowl title in 2009.
Completion Percentage: His best year was 2011, a year he’ll never duplicate most likely. His worst was 2012. These all add up to a completion percentage average of 67.6% during his time as a Saint. His season in 2015 is 0.7% higher. It should be noted that “average Drew Brees during his time with the Saints” is Hall of Fame material. So anything better than “average Drew Brees” is off the charts good.
Yards per pass: Let’s skip yards and go straight to yards per pass. That’s telling us how productive Brees is with these passes. Best ever was 8.5 per in 2009. Worst was 6.8 per in 2007. His career average with the Saints is 7.7. He was 0.1 higher in 2015.
Touchdown %: This is a number that started low early in his career in New Orleans, spiked significantly, and has really dropped recently. Not having Jimmy Graham this year probably hurt that. His worst was 4.3% in 2007. His best was 7.0% in 2011. His career average with the Saints is 5.5% and he was 0.4 points lower than that this year.
Interception %: 1.8% this season is tied with 2013 for the lowest of his career. The highest was 3.3% in 2010. Career is 2.4% and 2015 was 0.6% lower than that. A significant improvement.
Sack %: It’s worth noting Brees has taken A LOT more hits and sacks in the last three years. Clearly the o-line is not what it used to be. That should help explain why Bret Ingalls was let go. 4.7% is the second highest of his career. In 2008 he was only sacked 2.0% of the time. His career average is 3.7% and he was a full percentage point higher than that in 2015. Despite this, he’s still putting up “better than average”, aka HALL OF FAME numbers. Truly shocking. What that tells me is that Brees doesn’t let hits affect the next play like most quarterbacks do.
Rating: His best was 110.6 in 2011. His career average with the Saints is 99.0. He was two full points higher than that in 2015 at 101.0.
So by no means did Brees have the best year of his career in 2015. But in 5 categories I outlined above (excluding attempts and sacks that paint a picture but don’t really paint performance quality), Brees was better in 2015 than his average output during his time in New Orleans in 4 of those. His rating, yards per pass, interception % and completion percentage were all incredibly good. Only his touchdowns per pass % was down – and again – that can largely be attributed to losing a major red zone influence in Jimmy Graham. This was all happening despite him getting sacked more than any other season except 2013.
Now I will say, Brees missed the first game of his career with the Saints in 2015 and it’s fair to say he battled more health issues than ever before. It’s naive to dismiss the fact that he just turned 37 and his body seems to be showing the ill affects of this uptick in hits/sacks he’s taking. That said, perpetuating the notion of his “decline” is irresponsible when he clearly showed that by and large in 2015, he was better than the average output of one of the best quarterbacks the game has ever seen.
Based on this, it’s safe to say Brees’s 2015 season was a very special one, consistent or better than what we’re used to seeing out of him. Hoping for no drop off in 2016 isn’t a misguided goal by any stretch.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
