The wing from Arizona is poised to be a top-10 pick in June.
Stanley Johnson says he is the best player in the 2015 Draft.
Let’s pump the brakes a little — but just a little.
Johnson is one of my favorite players in the 2015 NBA Draft class — he’s a tough, athletic small forward with an NBA-ready body. He was arguably the top player in the Pac-12 this past season, and his strong play on the wing helped Arizona claim a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
In his only season at Arizona he played on a deep squad with a plethora of talented players. He averaged 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game as a freshman while shooting 44 percent from the field and 37 percent from beyond the 3-point line.
He is a balanced player, but sits behind other wing prospects — namely Justise Winslow and Mario Hezonja — on many draft boards (He ranks behind both Winslow and Hezonja on my big board and mock draft but has the same grade). Why?
Winslow and Johnson are very comparative players. Both stand 6-6.5 in shoes, and their wingspans are within an inch and a quarter of one another, at 6-10.25 and 6-11.50, respectively. Statistically, they are very similar players, producing nearly identical figures in the same number of minutes per game.
Winslow ranks above Johnson because he rated as a better outside shooter for Duke, finishing at 41.8 percent on the season. Could that four percent lead to Winslow’s selection above Johnson? Of course there are other factors in play, but 3-point shooting has become so important in the NBA that one has to ponder the edge those four points give Winslow.
Hezonja is in a different situation. Left on the bench for a large portion of the season at FC Barcelona, his numbers cannot compare to Winslow or Johnson. He is widely regarded as one of the top athletes and shooters in the draft, and may have a higher ceiling than either of the collegiate prospects.
At 20 years old, Hezonja was producing in the second-best league in the world, and producing rather efficiently. Taller than either of the aforementioned prospects, his potential as a Klay Thompson-esque player could lead to him being the first wing off the board. His style of play is different enough to separate him.
The player who comes off the board first will be largely a matter of preference of the drafting team, likely beginning with New York at No. 4 overall. The three prospects rank five, six, and seven in our top-100, and should all be off the board by the time Miami picks at No. 10.
So is Johnson the best player in the 2015 Draft class? Most analysts will say no, myself included, opting instead for Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns or D’Angelo Russell. It is not, however, out of the question for Johnson to end up being the player that everyone covets.
In 2011, Kawhi Leonard was a projected mid-late lottery pick, much like Johnson, but fell all the way to 16th where San Antonio traded for his draft rights. Four years later, Leonard is one of the top players to come out of the group- and perhaps the best one.
Could Johnson’s post-draft story be the same?
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