How Important is 2016 for Franklin?

As the 2016 college football season quickly approaches, there’s a lot of chatter about how important this season will be to 3rd year Penn State head coach James Franklin and his job security.

Franklin enters the third  year of his six year contract at the helm of Penn State football, but some believe this could be his last year. In Franklin’s first two seasons, he’s gone 6-6, with a bowl victory, and 7-5 with a bowl loss, respectively. His predecessor, Bill O’Brien, went 8-4 in his first season and 7-5 in his second before leaving for the NFL. Grant it, O’Brien’s teams did not face the full backlash of the sanctions like Franklin’s teams have. Many have speculated if the now Texans head coach would have had more success with the sanction crippled teams that were led  by Franklin.

It’s not uncommon for a coach to have struggles in his first couple seasons as a head coach. Joe Paterno went 5-5 in his first season as Penn State’s head coach, although  he did win 8 the following season. More recently, Big Ten rival Mark Dantonio went 7-6 in his first season at Michigan State, he then regrouped the following season to win 9 games, but in his third season he only won 6. Since then, Dantonio has posted seasons of 11 wins (3 times), 12 wins (once), and 13 wins(once).

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It’s unclear if Penn State will have the same kind of patience Michigan State did with Dantonio with Franklin. A lot of that will fall onto whether Franklin will show improvement, 8 wins or better in 2016. Franklin has his hands full this season, with two new coordinators, an entirely new offensive scheme, and a new coach for his struggling offensive line. Franklin must also deliver in the clutch, he’s yet to win a game against a ranked opponent during his tenure in State College, something that has made many fans uneasy. Franklin must also come through on his promise to “Dominate the State”, and his word will be put to the test as Penn State faces old rival Pittsburgh and Temple, the latter Penn State lost to last season for the first time since World War 2.

Franklin must also ensure that his new offense, led by first year offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead, makes significant strides after being one of the worst nationally his first two seasons. Not to mention that there is no longer three year starting quarterback Christian Hackenberg at Penn State, and Franklin will be starting an inexperienced quarterback in either Trace McSorley (the favorite) or Tommy Stevens.

The 2016 season will not be an easy one, as the Lions face Pitt and Temple back to back and then enter conference play which includes Ohio State, Michigan, Big Ten champs Michigan State, Big Ten West champs Iowa, and Maryland and Rutgers, both of which got new and improved coaching staffs this year. Anything less than an 8-4 season and at least a strong bowl performance, if not a win, will not be good for Franklin and his job.

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Franklin must also perform on the recruiting trail, something he hasn’t been doing lately.  Franklin didn’t have much time to make much of an impact on the 2014 recruiting cycle as he was hired three weeks before signing day, but he did get standout receivers Chris Godwin and Saeed Blacknall. In his 2015 recruiting class, Franklin did an excellent job of securing top-in-state talent while helping seal up the offensive line and of course one Saqoun  Barkley at running back. His 2016 group included the #1 running back, Miles Sanders, and #1 offensive tackle, Mike Menet, both in state prospects. The rest of the class included many valuable prospects, but Franklin dealt with numerous decommitments that shot his top 10 rated class back to the 23rd rated class. To his credit, Franklin does have three top 25 classes in three years, despite the inadequate number of scholarships due to the sanctions in his first two years. Franklin’s 2017 class on the other hand, is struggling. He does have some big name recruits in 4 stars Sean Clifford(QB), Dylan Rivers(LB), C.J. Thorpe(OL), and Yetur Matos(DE), but with only 8 commits, and none since late April, Penn State’s class ranks in the 40’s nationally. There’s still time, but Franklin has missed with many top targets, including today with 4 star tight end Matt Dotson. Franklin was able to make a big splash in the 2018 class getting #2 overall prospect and in state prospect Micah Parsons(DE), although his commitment is starting to be questioned with a planned visit to Michigan. There are still a lot of targets reaming on the board, but the team must produce in 2016 to show these recruits that they will be apart of a winning tradition at Penn State, and Franklin knows that.

So just how important is this season to Franklin?.. Very.

The bottom line is, Franklin must win on the field and on the recruiting trail to keep the fans happy and show the university that he will restore winning traditions at Penn State.  Athletic Director Sandy Barbour recently said she is encouraged by the direction of the program, but still sees room for improvement. Winning on the field will lead to winning in recruiting, which will lead to winning in the future, if Franklin cannot do this in 2016, Franklin may be on a very hot seat, or he may not be on one at all.