If the best time to make a trade is when you’re buying low, the Chicago White Sox picked the perfect time to acquire James Shields from the San Diego Padres.
On Saturday afternoon, the Padres traded the veteran righty to the White Sox, the clubs announced. Shields is due $56 million through the 2017-18 seasons and has been a disappointment since signing a four-year, $75 million contract with the Padres, going 15-14 with a 4.00 ERA in a season and two months in San Diego. The White Sox are expected to pick up $27 million of Shields’ remaining salary, with the Padres eating about $29 million, assuming he doesn’t opt out of the contract after this season.
If there’s one word the best describes Shields, it’s “workhorse.” He has thrown at least 200 innings each of the past nine seasons, the longest active streak in the majors (one more than Felix Hernandez). However, the danger in that is when not all of those innings are good ones. Shields tied for the major league lead in home runs allowed last season with 33, giving up an average of 1.47 long balls per nine innings. And that was with pitcher-friendly Petco Park as his home base.
In Chicago, the home run could be an even bigger issue for Shields. US Cellular Field has played 4% above average this season when it comes to home runs, according to ESPN’s Park Factors, compared to Petco’s figure of 8% below average. However, the news isn’t all bad. US Cellular has decreased scoring overall by 19% compared to the major league average, which puts it in this season’s bottom five. Of course, those park factors are likely to change as the weather warms up. He’ll see almost no difference in run support. The White Sox rank 22nd in scoring at 4.05 runs per game. The Padres are 23rd at 4.02.
One note of caution: Shields’ average fastball velocity has gone from 91.0 mph in 2015 to 90.1 mph this season. That’s corresponded with a decrease of two strikeouts per nine innings (from 9.6 to 7.6 K/9). Moving over to the American League could make that gap even greater.
With Shields’ arrival, the odd man out of the White Sox rotation figures to be Miguel Gonzalez. Look for Shields to get his first start with the Pale Hose on Tuesday, with Mat Latos being pushed back a day to Wednesday.
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