How much more money?

A look at what an 18 game season would add in terms of revenue.

More importantly, though, it’s a negotiating tactic. By this point, the owner’s strategy is clear: they’re going to approach the players with their dream offer. This is a revenue pool that’s roughly 18% smaller than the current revenue pool, plus an expanded season. The expanded season will enhance the size of the revenue pool, so the players won’t make 18% less but maybe 12% less. It’s not being presented in quite this manner, but that’s what’s really going on. The NFLPA’s current strategy is trying to present the expanded season and the size of the revenue pool as two separate issues, focusing on what seems like an essential fairness when it comes to playing 18 regular season games instead of 16. What I think they’re trying not to do is to draw an explicit linkage between an expanded season and a decrease revenue amount. When they do that, the NFL will then be able to make a relatively persuasive argument that “Ok, we’ll drop the 18-game season idea, and give you less money, and you agreed to that.” That is what the NFLPA is trying to avoid.

Frankly, I don’t think the NFL is, or at least should be, particularly serious about the 18-game season. If my numbers are close to right, it doesn’t make anywhere near as much money as you’d expect from a basic 16 to 18 game comparison, and the players really don’t like it. It is, instead, primarily a negotiating tactic and media ploy, and should and will be dropped when the labor negotiations get serious.

I would counter that the big problem with these numbers is that his estimation of the TV numbers is flat wrong.  The networks need their to be no lockout, especially because they’ve put themselves in the stupid position of loaning money out to the league in 2011 if there is a lock out.  The networks need there to be a football season, so they are paying either way.  This tells me that come negotiation time they’ll be ready to do what is necessary to make sure the league comes back.  I’d say the TV revenue part of the equation is grossly underestimated.

Still, I agree with the main thrust of this.  1.  This is an attempt to make nice to season ticket holders, who despite his assertions ARE GETTING SCREWED, and 2.  this is basically a bargaining chip designed to cloud the CBA issue.