Coby Fleener did not come to the Saints cheap. And when you come to a team by way of a shining new 5 year $36 million deal, expectations are high. Tight ends have been quite successful in the Saints offense, after all. But Fleener has yet to explode statistically through four seasons and that’s the big concern as he joins the Saints. Will the Saints have they key to unlock his high level production, or did the Saints spend way too much on a guy with a limited ceiling? Here’s Fleener’s stats if you’re curious. His career highs have been 54 receptions (2015), 774 yards (2014) and 8 touchdowns (2014). I question whether numbers like that deserve an average of over $7 million per year over five seasons. And it’s not like Fleener was stuck in a horrific quarterback situation. Andrew Luck threw for over 4,000 yards twice during that time period and that production was going to someone. The passing season he had in 2014 was as prolific as many of the all timers. So we have to hope that maybe, just maybe, Fleener improves thanks to better chemistry with Drew Brees in an offense designed by someone more advanced schematically in Sean Payton. Speaking of which, I put together an interesting little tight end chart to give us a sense of historical production since 2006:
| Year | Leading Tight End in Targets | Leading Tight End in Receptions | Leading Tight End in Yards | Leading Tight End in TDs | Total TE Target % of Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Mark Campbell – 29 | Mark Campbell – 18 | Mark Campbell – 164 | Ernie Conwell – 1 | 12.2% |
| 2007 | Eric Johnson – 63 | Eric Johnson – 48 | Eric Johnson – 378 | Eric Johnson and Billy Miller – 2 | 23.2% |
| 2008 | Jeremy Shockey – 72 | Jeremy Shockey – 50 | Billy Miller – 579 | Mark Campbell – 2 | 37.5% |
| 2009 | Jeremy Shockey – 67 | Jeremy Shockey – 48 | Jeremy Shockey – 569 | Jeremy Shockey – 3 | 22.6% |
| 2010 | Jeremy Shockey – 59 | Jeremy Shockey – 41 | Jeremy Shockey – 408 | Jimmy Graham – 5 | 22.8% |
| 2011 | Jimmy Graham – 149 | Jimmy Graham – 99 | Jimmy Graham – 1310 | Jimmy Graham – 11 | 24.9% |
| 2012 | Jimmy Graham – 135 | Jimmy Graham – 85 | Jimmy Graham – 982 | Jimmy Graham – 9 | 22.8% |
| 2013 | Jimmy Graham – 142 | Jimmy Graham – 86 | Jimmy Graham – 1215 | Jimmy Graham – 16 | 28.0% |
| 2014 | Jimmy Graham – 125 | Jimmy Graham – 85 | Jimmy Graham – 889 | Jimmy Graham – 10 | 26.7% |
| 2015 | Ben Watson – 110 | Ben Watson – 74 | Ben Watson – 825 | Ben Watson – 6 | 23.4% |
It’s interesting to note that the highest percentage of targets going to the tight end position happened in 2008 – before Jimmy Graham joined the team. The lowest was 2006, when the Saints rarely threw the ball the way of Mark Campbell, Ernie Conwell, John Owens and Nate Lawrie. To be honest I had forgotten how little the Saints used the tight ends in that first season under Payton. In five seasons without Jimmy Graham, the football was thrown to tight ends on 23.78% of attempts. In five seasons with Jimmy Graham, the football was thrown to tight ends on 25.04%. Honestly, I would have expected a much larger disparity. A difference of targets going to that position is 1.26% less, on average, without Graham is pretty negligible.
You think I was going to stop there? No way. Let’s take this further. Drew Brees has attempted, on average, 627.6 passes per season since he joined the Saints. Let’s say for fun his targets to tight ends will be less than the average this season, we’ll go with the second lowest ever target % attempts to tight ends in the Brees/Payton era – 22.6% in 2009. That would mean this season the combination of Fleener, Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui will see roughly 142 targets. That’s a very safe and modest estimate, I feel, because the tight ends saw 156 last season.
So what are the completion percentage numbers like on these tight end targets anyway? See below:
| Year | Tight End Targets | Tight End Receptions | Tight End Completions % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 71 | 45 | 63.4% |
| 2007 | 102 | 76 | 74.5% |
| 2008 | 155 | 110 | 71.0% |
| 2009 | 123 | 89 | 72.4% |
| 2010 | 151 | 103 | 68.2% |
| 2011 | 165 | 108 | 65.5% |
| 2012 | 153 | 97 | 63.9% |
| 2013 | 182 | 111 | 61.0% |
| 2014 | 176 | 119 | 67.6% |
| 2015 | 156 | 101 | 64.7% |
The Saints are 538 of 827 targeting the tight end in the 5 years where Jimmy Graham was on the team. That’s just above 65%. In the five years Graham was not in the Saints Sean Payton offense, the Saints are 421 of 607 targeting the tight end. That’s above 69%. The disparity there is not that surprising because the ball was forced to Graham more and he was a focal point of the offense that attracted heavy attention from opposing defenses. Without Graham, the tight end was never a primary receiving option for the Saints, so less defensive attention likely meant safer throws (on average). That doesn’t even factor in drops; and we know Graham had his problems with that at times in his career.
OK, so back to the estimate 142 tight end targets in 2016. Let’s go on the low end and say the Saints will complete 65% of their targets to tight ends. That’s the same number as last season and the same number, on average, as the seasons where Graham was on the team (again, lower than seasons where he was not). That leaves roughly 92 catches to go around between Fleener, Hooman and Hill. I would expect about 55-60 of those would be the primary guy – in this case Fleener. Now what he does with those receptions is anyone’s guess. But it’s worth noting that Ben Watson averaged 11.1 yards per catch last year and 11.4 yards per catch in his career. Fleener has averaged 11.8 yards per catch in his.
So what can we expect this season? If statistical history tells us anything, it’s that Fleener will be set up in this offense to have a career year surpassing any production he’s had in the NFL up to this point. Hopefully that will help in justifying what the Saints paid him.
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