While the Cleveland Indians’ starting rotation has deservedly earned the recognition as the team’s biggest area of strength, the case can be made that the Tribe’s middle infield isn’t far behind. If Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor play up to their potential, there is no question that Cleveland’s middle infielders can match up with anyone in the majors.
Granted, this time a year ago, no one could have made that claim. Lindor had hardly played in AAA and Kipnis was coming off of a disappointing, injury-riddled 2014 campaign. Just as easily as Lindor and Kipnis could have another year of being among the best at their positions, Lindor could suffer the infamous sophomore-slump or Kipnis could start to show some signs of regression. This all goes without mentioning utility-man Jose Ramirez, who in his young career, has at times seemed completely lost at the plate, while at others looked the part of a MLB regular.
With all that said – what exactly should fans look for in 2016 between Kipnis, Lindor, and Ramirez? Let’s take a look:
Jason Kipnis
As Kipnis has far more service time than either Lindor or Ramirez, perhaps setting expectations for his season should be easiest. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case. The truth is, Kipnis suffers from the same “every other year” syndrome that Tribe fans should be all too familiar with, thanks to Ryan Raburn and Justin Masterson. He has posted wRC+’s of 132, 100, 127, 84, and 126 in each season since his debut in 2011. Based off that narrative alone, it may be a good idea to temper expectations for Kipnis in 2016.
Unfortunately, many of the advanced statistics support the idea that Kipnis won’t be quite as effective at the plate in 2016 as he was in 2015. Steamer and ZiPS both project Kipnis to have one of his worse years at the plate in 2016, predicting the second basemen to post wRC+’s of 105 and 109, respectively. This doesn’t come as a shock, as his .356 BABIP from 2015 was unsustainable.
Still, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Kipnis. For starters, his .356 BABIP last season doesn’t seem quite as outrageous when considering his career BABIP is .320. Further, 2015 saw Kipnis take a distinctly different hitting approach, as he began emphasizing contact and on-base ability over power. This shift is exemplified by his line drive percentage (26%) and opposite field percentage (28.6%) in 2015 both being career highs, while his fly ball percentage (28.1%) was a career low. If Kipnis maintains this approach in 2016, perhaps his production won’t take quite the dip that some of the projection systems suggest.
Of course, base running and fielding also factor into his 2016 value. Though in the lead-off role for most of 2015, Kipnis’ base running was sub-par. He only stole 12 bases in 20 attempts, which resulted in the only season in his career where he posted a negative wSB (-1.1). It would seem like in this regard, 2015 was an outlier on the bases for Kipnis, and both Steamer and ZiPS agree, predicting Kipnis to return to form as an average to above-average base runner.
In terms of defense, Kipnis had an excellent 2015, finishing the year with a career best 5.8 UZR/150. For his career, Kipnis has posted just a -3.4 UZR/150, and as he nears 30, it is reasonable to conclude he isn’t likely to significantly improve on defense going forward. Still, there is no reason to believe Kipnis won’t be about average on defense in 2016. All in all, fans should expect the 2016 version of Kipnis to continue being one of the better hitting second basemen in the MLB, while remaining about average on the bases and on defense.
Francisco Lindor
After Tribe fans waited for years for Lindor to reach Cleveland, all their patience was rewarded and then some in 2015, as they were able to witness Lindor play like a legitimate MVP candidate following his June promotion. All Lindor did through 99 games was slash a ridiculous .313/.353/.482, with 12 home runs, 12 steals and an elite 18.9 UZR/150 score on defense. Can Lindor repeat his overwhelmingly strong debut?
The answer depends on what you perceive to be “strong”. To be blunt, the chances of Lindor repeating many of his offensive numbers from 2015 are slim. Lindor never slugged better than .429 in any sample size at any level of the minor leagues, so his .482 slugging percentage in his MLB debut seems impossible to replicate. His BABIP of .348 is also unsustainable, so in general, fans shouldn’t look for Lindor to continue with his otherworldly numbers. ZiPS and Steamer agree, as they expect Lindor to post much more average offense numbers in 2016, predicting Lindor to post a wRC+ of 102 and 95, respectively.
However, if fans were familiar with Lindor before 2015, average offensive numbers shouldn’t be considered a disappointment for the young shortstop. Universally, scouting reports of Lindor called for roughly league-average offense, above-average base running, and elite defense. With Lindor stealing 12 bases in 14 attempts in 2016, along with his previously aforementioned stellar defense, his floor remains remarkably high. Even if Lindor’s offense in 2016 disappoints compared to his debut, posting between a 4-5 WAR is within reach, which would still place among the best shortstops in the game.
Jose Ramirez
Though Kipnis and Lindor both get the most recognition, it is important to remember how big of a role Ramirez will play on the Indians. This year, Ramirez figures to play second or shortstop whenever Kipnis or Lindor are given rest, and Terry Francona has been on record saying he wants Ramirez to be “a weapon.” Though Ramirez has had his struggles (like posting a 32 wRC+ in the first half on 2015) his positives have outweighed the negatives. After his struggles in the first half of last year resulted in a demotion to AAA Columbus, Ramirez was ultimately recalled and demonstrated a much better approach at the plate upon his return. He raised his walk percentage from 7.5% to 10.4%, while cutting his strikeout percentage by 5.7%. The change resulted in a 114 wRC+ in 47 second half games.
Much like Lindor, if Ramirez’s offensive production can be close to league-average, he will be the “weapon” that Francona envisions. Luckily for Tribe fans, the fact that his numbers rebounded due to a change in approach, rather than something like an unsustainable BABIP, suggests that Ramirez can continue to produce at the plate. The projection systems seemingly agree, as ZiPS has Ramirez finishing 2016 with a 92 wRC+, while Steamer calls for an 86 wRC+ in 2016.
In terms of defense, Ramirez has seen mixed results at shortstop, but has always been regarded as an excellent defensive second basemen. In 349 career innings at second, Ramirez has a 12.4 UZR/150 score, compared to just 2.3 UZR/150 score in 885 innings at short. All things considered, Ramirez seems poised to succeed as a super-utility man for the Tribe, and may end up being one of the best backups in baseball, as August Fagerstrom’s recent article on FanGraphs suggests.
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