How the Titans Targeted Their Receivers in 2014

After last week’s look at running back usage, I thought I should look at how the Titans used their other non-quarterback offensive “skill position” players.

Since outside of Kendall Wright they did not get any carries, I will begin with a chart.

Notes: I did not include players like Brett Brackett, Richard Gordon, T.J. Graham, and Rico Richardson who were not targeted. “Other RBs” includes Antonio Andrews, Jackie Battle, and Shonn Greene. “Other Players” includes throw aways not listed with a target in the play by play, plus passes thrown to offensive linemen. Plays negated by penalty are included, which is why my totals may not match your totals.

I also listed both “Overall Target Percentage” and “Active Target Percentage,” to account for when a player misses games. Many significant and semi-significant players missed time-Justin Hunter, Dexter McCluster, Delanie Walker, Kendall Wright-so I feel Active Target Percentage is potentially more representative of their intended role in the offense. If I want to do some more next-level analysis and thought it would be more than an exercise in small sample size overjudgment and overfitting, I would look at how their absences affected the roles of other players in a more concrete manner, as opposed to saying things like Nate Washington was thrown the ball more frequently than he would have been if everybody around him remained healthy.

In past seasons, I have gone through and made predictions about how many passes each Titans player might catch or be targeted with; the RB-only version of this post was crafted around how well I predicted (or did not predicted) what the Titans would do. I did not do a comprehensive target projection, but did make in the receiver and tight end positional analyses some predictions/projections/guesses.

I thought Kendall Wright would catch a lot of passes. While “a lot” was a highly variable term in my mind (I mentioned a range of 7o to 105), I thought that made the most sense, plus Ken Whisenhunt showed with Keenan Allen in San Diego he could make use of a non-deep threat, non-plus size young wideout. My yards-per-catch prediction of closer to 12.0 than 15.0 was in the right ballpark (actual YPC 12.5), but he only had 57 catches. Even projecting him to play a full 16 game season (as I do when I predict a player’s stats) only gets you to 65. As I will cover more in next month’s WR positional analysis, his style did not work as well in Whisenhunt’s more regimented system.

One other point Wright’s production highlights is the Titans in general did not have many catches in 2014. They finished with 299, down with 328 from a year ago and well short of the 350 the NFL averaged as a whole in 2014. Since I’m trying not to turn this in another “the 2014 Titans were a factory of sadness” post, I will simply note they did not attempt or complete many passes, which deflates catch totals pretty much across the board.

Justin Hunter’s production was the big “X-factor” when it came to Titans receivers, and maybe the offense in general in 2014. My preseason prediction was for more than 15.7 yards per catch, but less than 44 catches. Fundamental catching issues bothered me too me from his 2013 play. He finished the season with 28 catches in 12 active games, about a 37-catch pace. His yards per catch remained high-not his rookie 19.7, but still a strong 17.8. Further discussion of him goes in the WR positional analysis.

Nate Washington just barely hit the bottom end of my “40 to 60” catches prediction, coming in right at 40.

Since old tight ends (for the position) scare me, I was very, very cautious on Delanie Walker in the preseason, at least in terms of yards per catch. I expected another season of around 60 catches (he finished with 63, missing a game and a half or so), under six touchdowns (he had four), and around 9.5 yards per catch, thanks to a recent multi-year decline in his yards after catch numbers. That last I was wrong on, significantly. He had multiple receptions with major yards after catch, against Dallas and the Eagles most notably. I don’t have YAC+ numbers from Football Outsiders yet, but his raw yards per catch total went from just 2.9 in 2013 to 6.4. He was a long, long way from where Alge Crumpler was at a similar age.

In terms of the more macro-level discussion, the Titans targeted their receivers less (from 67% to 55%) and their tight ends (from 19% to 24%) and running backs (from 14% to 19%, yay rounding) more in their first season under Ken Whisenhunt. Yes, personnel quality, including that they had only three real receivers and some of them missed multiple games had something to do with that. Nothing further to note on that subject at the time, though I hope to address the more marco-level Ken Whisenhunt offense questions later in the offseason.