The Celtics and the Hawks are both having up-and-down seasons. We might have expected that for Boston, but not for the Hawks, who have regressed a bit after last year’s dominant regular season. Few expected that this meeting, a week from Christmas (the REAL start to the NBA season), would involve two teams with nearly identical records on the outside of the playoff chase.
A win tonight will be huge for either team. The Hawks are hoping their slump-snapping win over Philly wasn’t just fool’s gold courtesy of a truly horrid team. The Celtics are hoping to avoid a three-game skid which happened to follow a general buy-in from the NBA masses who rose them to the top-10 of most power rankings. Boston can send the Hawks back to skids-ville, and maybe return to the good graces of league observers, if they follow this plan tonight.
1: Guard the guards
Yes, the Hawks have Al Horford and Paul Milsap, two star players who will kill you on any given night, but the Hawks really suffer when you limit their guard play.
Jeff Teague has shown the capability of being one of the league’s best guards. Last year he was a prime catalyst for a dominant Hawks team, but his production has taken a step back this season. His PER is down from an All-Star level 20.6 to a good-but-not-great 17.9. His shooting is at a five-year low and his assist percentage is down almost five points from last season.
Teague is 7th in the league in drives this year at 10.1… more than James Harden, LeBron James, Kyle Lowry, and John Wall to name a few. Yet in Hawks losses, he’s only averaging three free throws a game, which shows when he’s not aggressive and taking it to the hoop, it changes the complexion of the Hawks.
Avery Bradley had a terrible defensive game in Detroit against Reggie Jackson… who happens to be one of the six guys who drives more than Teague. Bradley, I’m sure, has a sour taste in his mouth after that one. Shutting Teague down would be a hell of a way to make up for it.
By the way, let’s not forget about Dennis Schroder, who isn’t necessarily a make-or-break guy if he’s off, but can be a huge help to them if he’s on. Don’t let him be a difference maker off the bench.
2: Keep them under 100
The Hawks have only lost once when scoring 100 or more points. They’re 4-11 when they’re held under 100. In wins, they’re averaging 107.6 points, and in losses they’re averaging 92.
When the Celtics beat Atlanta earlier in the year, the final was 106-93. In the loss, it was 121-97.
The Hawks need to score to win games. They have a 101.1 defensive rating… which is middle of the pack. Hell they just gave up 106 points to the worst offense in the league… so the Celtics CAN score (if they can hit a few shots). If that trademark Celtics D can flex its muscles and hold the Hawks under triple digits, chances of a win get very high.
3: Hit the boards
The Hawks are not a good rebounding team. In fact they have the worst rebounding percentage in the league. They’re 7th-worst in opponent rebounds per game.
The problem is the Celtics are 6th worse, and they can’t let the Hawks gain an edge in an area they’ve been out-worked all season long. No second-chance points tonight. That’s going to be a killer.
Yes, I know this might sound simple… play defense and rebound and you have a good chance at winning this game. But within that are key things that Atlanta needs to win this game. They NEED Jeff Teague to be really good. They NEED to score a lot of points to win. And they NEED to get rebounds to score those points. Give them none of those three things.. and this is a Celtics win.
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