OK, Celtics, you’re on a little bit of a roll now… you’ve dispatched a good Heat team and rolled past the Kings. Now the fun begins.
The San Antonio Spurs will be the toughest test of the year… even tougher than when they played the first time around… which is when this happened.
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This Spurs team is finding its groove, which means it’s going to take a near perfect game to win this one on the road.
But it’s possible… especially if the Celtics follow this game plan.
1: Pick your poison
This is a lineup that trots out an MVP candidate (Kawhi Leonard), a GOD who is still effective (Tim Duncan), perhaps the most coveted free agent of the offseason (LaMarcus Aldridge), a Finals MVP and probably future Hall of Famer (Tony Parker), and a feared marksman who is also a 2-way player (Danny Green).
Someone is going to need help on D, and that means you have to help off of someone else to do it. And if you’re going to have anyone beat you, the candidate right now is Green… who is off to a very slow start…
Please don’t read this as “let him shoot” because giving him wide open looks will be a surefire way to kickstart his season. But if there’s a “least dangerous” guy on the team, he’s it right now. Help off of him when doubles are needed… get back and challenge his shots… and hope the cold shooting continues.
2: Keep Tony Parker out of the lane
Hey remember when people were saying Parker has lost a step?
Well forget that shit, because while Parker isn’t quite AS dangerous as he was a few years ago, he’s still pretty damn good. In fact, his PER is currently up 5 points from last year to 20.1 (its highest point since 2013). His Usage Rate is 21, the lowest point since his rookie year, yet his True Shooting percentage is higher than ever, and his assist rate is near 30. Where he struggles is taking 3’s.
Parker has only taken 8 3’s in 20 games. Yes, he’s made 4 but he’s just not taking that shot.
The heat map shows he’s not even making those long mid-range jumpers anymore. But he still loves to get into the lane, which he WILL do. And once he does, you’re screwed because if he doesn’t hit a floater, he’ll destroy you with a pass.
DO NOT LET PARKER PENETRATE!! Keep him outside. He’s the shooter (call it “pick your poison part 2” if you’d like) you want taking the long shots.
3: RUN RUN RUN RUN RUN
The Spurs are the 5th slowest team in the league (96.16 pace). The Celtics are the 5th fastest (101.37). The Spurs are also the best defensive team in the league at the moment (92.2 def rating) so the best chance to score is to continue getting steals and running. No, the Spurs don’t turn the ball over much (14.8 turnovers per 100 possessions) but neither do the Miami Heat, and the Celtics got a ton of steals there.
3A: Even if you can’t run, make the shots you take good shots
No team is better at defensive rebounding than the Spurs. The Celtics shouldn’t even bother trying to crash the boards (unless it’s one of the bigs already underneath the basket). Work the offense and don’t force shots… then get back on D try to force more turnovers and fast break opportunities.
4: Run Kawhi off the 3
And for God’s sake keep him out of the corners
He’s the league leader in 3-point percentage… hitting 50% of them so far this year.
HALF. HE’S HITTING HALF HIS FREAKIN’ 3 POINTERS!!! AND HE’S 14-22 FROM THE CORNERS!!!!!
Kawhi from the corner is instant death. Don’t let Kawhi shoot the 3. Please.
This is not an easy task. This has the potential to be an ugly defensive battle. The Celtics best hope is to run like crazy and hope for 3’s from Tony Parker instead of Kawhi Leonard… and hopefully Danny Green can stay cold for a bit longer. If they can do these few things, we might get a new “signature” win on this young season.
Graphics via NBASavant.com. Stats via NBA.com & Basketball-Reference. Thanks also to Jeff Garcia from Project Spurs for additional information.
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