Before you keep reading, know that this is a safe place. Everybody here is understanding. Nobody here will judge you. Really, because everybody is just as terrified as you are. Nothing ruins postseason dreams and deflates teams like a leaky bullpen. Ask the 2004 or 2006 Indians. Let’s stay away from the disaster that was Wednesday night’s game. Let’s address the problem at hand.
The Indians bullpen at times as been thought of as a dumpster fire. Their ERA as a whole is currently 10th in baseball at 3.47. Their 4.10 FIP is 11th. It’s not as if it’s all bad, so what’s the deal? The Indians carry an eight man bullpen because they like to mix and match and have guys available for every situation, but I can see you flinch and sometimes convulse when one man enters the game. Bryan Shaw.
Why is Bryan Shaw the only one who can work with a lead in the eight inning? 24 of his 32 outings this season have come in the eighth inning. He’s allowed six homers in those outings and opposing hitters have an .884 OPS against him. Here are the other pitchers who have pitched in the eighth inning and in parenthesis, how many times:
Cody Allen (3 appearances – One total inning pitched, two runs allowed)
Dan Otero (6 – 6IP, 1.50 ERA)
Zach McAllister (5 – 3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA)
Jeff Manship (8 – 5.2 IP, 6.35 ERA)
Joba Chamberlain (7 – 6.1 IP, 1.42 ERA)
Tommy Hunter (4 – 3IP, 0.00 ERA)
Austin Adams (3 -3IP, 0.00 ERA)
Ross Detwiler (2 – 1.1 IP, 0.00 ERA)
Ryan Merritt (1 – 1 IP, 0.00 ERA)
Kyle Crockett (1 – 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA)
Trevor Bauer (as a reliever) (2 – 2 IP, 0.00 ERA)
It’s not all bad. There are options. Many of them. Some of them actually look like they might work, too. Before the two run homer on Tuesday that probably doesn’t happen if Jose Ramirez makes a somewhat tough play at third base, Shaw hadn’t allowed an earned run in his last 24 games either.
BrooksBaseball.net thanks to PitchFX tells us that Shaw’s bread and butter pitch, his cutter, has as much as velocity as it’s ever had.
It’s also getting more and more movement than ever.
So while velocity and movement show that Shaw’s stuff is still good, why the ineffectiveness and the notion of loss of confidence by those not named Terry Francona?
Hitters have a 1.700 OPS off of Shaw on the first pitch NS he’s thrown a first pitch ball to 52 of the 109 batters he’s faced went 2-1 in the county 34 times and has gone to full count to 21 batters. Hitters have an .850 OPS on a full count against Shaw. By comparison, in 304 plate appearances against hitters, Josh Tomlin has gone to a full count in 27 of those plate appearances and 2-1 just 21 times. Despite the possible overwork and piling up of innings over the last few years as an Indians, Shaw’s arm and stuff are fine. He’s control has seemingly deserted him.
The Indians however, won’t desert him. And that’s OK. Shaw hasn’t gone down the Vinnie Pestano drain where his velocity and movement are just no longer there. It’s the opposite. At some point this season, it’s OK for Francona to head to the mound and hand the ball to Shaw, but for a team that carries seven other relievers, for a manager that is said he’s not committed to holding Allen only for the ninth inning, there should be other options.
This season there have been 39 times that the Indians have scored four or more runs. They’ve lost five times doing that. They’ve blown eight leads, none greater than three runs and have had five walk-off losses. They’ve also scored three runs 10 times, as many times as they’ve scored seven runs.
While getting help from Yan Gomes (another story from earlier today) and getting Michael Brantley back can fix the offense, even with 2013-14 Shaw, the Indians needed another reliever. The Royals started a trend the last two years that the Yankees and Red Sox followed:
Stack the bullpen with as many wipe out arms as you can pile. With Josh Tomlin and now Trevor Bauer making the rotation together better than ever, handing over a lead when scoring three or less to another arm that’s trustworthy and maybe not Shaw, even if he overcomes some inconsistencies, can put the Indians over the top.
The bottom line is – there are places to go to get help. Right in the bullpen now (Chamberlain?), maybe down in Columbus (Ben Heller?) or somewhere on the trade market. If you’re going to carry an eight man bullpen, you should be able to turn to more than one arm with a one run lead at times late in the game or have multiple arms that are trustworthy in those situations.
When showing your concern, show it to the place in need of it, the bullpen, first.
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