Aside from a stretch of play that caused me to launch into a frustrated podcast rant, Kelly Olynyk has had a pretty good month of December. We were treated to more great play last night, despite him being limited by foul trouble.
Last night, while lauding his play on Twitter, I took it a step further and said…
Kelly Olynyk is borderline untouchable to me
— John Karalis (@RedsArmy_John) December 28, 2015
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This is the point where you jump to the comments and call me a lunatic without reading any further.
HOWEVER…
If you’d like to keep reading, I think I can make my point.
In short: Kelly Olynkyk, frustrating as he might be for some stretches of games, is slowly developing a pretty nice offensive game. He’s showing the aggression necessary to be a matchup problem much more often this season. When he’s doing that, he radically affects the game. On top of all he’s doing offensively, he’s now added a defensive element to his game that’s making it easier to play him with different combinations of players.
The bottom line, to me, is that you don’t trade away the kind of guy the whole league is looking for.. a stretch big who can also dribble, pass, and not hurt you on defense. The only way trading him away makes sense to me is getting that superstar player in return. Olynyk, to me, is untouchable in a lower-level deal. His skill set is too unique to give away unless you’re getting something big in return.
Don’t believe me? Here’s a look at his numbers…
First let’s set the baseline. Here are some of Kelly Olynyk’s relevant career numbers:
19.7 Minutes per game
Offensive rating: 106
Defensive rating: 103
True Shooting: 55.8%
Points: 9.5
Rebounds: 4.8
Assists: 1.6
Nothing eye-popping there. But now here’s his December:
23.2 Minutes per game
Offensive rating: 109
Defensive rating: 98
True Shooting: 60.8%
Points: 13.2
Rebounds: 4.5
Assists: 1.8
There’s evidence that Kelly Olynyk should be on the floor more. In games this season where he’s played 20 or more minutes, the Celtics are 12-2 and those two losses were to the Cavaliers and Warriors…
In terms of +/-…
- Olynyk is part of the top three 2-man combinations (with, in order Jae Crowder (+15.7), Jared Sullinger (+13), and Amir Johnson (+12.4))
- Olynyk is part of the top three 3-man combinations (with Crowder/Isaiah Thomas (+24.6), Johnson/Thomas (+20.6), and Crowder/Johnson (20.5))
- Olynyk is part of the top 4-man combination (with Avery Bradley/Thomas/Crowder (+30/3))
- Olynyk is part of the top 5-man combination (with Bradley/Crowder/Thomas/Evan Turner (+81.4))
When Olynyk scores at least 11 points, the Celtics are 10-2. One loss is to Toronto, when he scored 11 points in 16 minutes. The other was to the Warriors… Olynyk had 28 points and was pretty awesome.
Olynyk is only in his third year and he doesn’t turn 25 until April. He’ll have bad stretches again during the season, and I might fall victim to the same frustrations, but it’s only because I know he can be a pretty good player. When he’s at his best, he has a positive effect on everyone else on the floor with his ability to provide space while also scoring and making good decisions with the basketball.
He’s not always at his best, but we’re starting to see Olynyk figure things out. He’s making subtle plays that show he’s learning the game and fulfilling some of the promise heaped upon him when he was dominating summer league games. He’s gotten to a point where his value to a team goes well beyond the $2.1 million he’s making under his rookie deal.
So again, I don’t see any reason to move the guy unless a superstar suddenly becomes available. Other than that, there aren’t a lot of guys in the league that can do what Olynyk does at that position. Whenever Trader Danny starts cookin’, I’d prefer he leave Kelly Olynyk off the table.
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