I Don’t Think You Truly Appreciate the Dire Situation of the Cleveland Indians Outfield

All Indians fans know the narrative of the right handed power bat and that their primary goal this off-season has been to add at least one outfielder and possibly a third basemen. A wide variety of names have come up from Marcell Ozuna and Todd Frazier in trade to Shane Victorino and Rajai Davis through free agency, but nothing real has come through yet.

Usually when a team is looking to add like this, they are simply trying to improve, but have a back up in place in case nothing happens. That was the case last year when Brandon Moss was added to an outfield that already had Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, David Murphy and Ryan Raburn. Since he was added, however, Brantley has been injured, Bourn, Swisher, Murphy and Moss were traded during the 2015 season, Raburn had his option declined and Mike Aviles was allowed to leave through free agency. While each of these had their own problems, particularly defensively, many were decent offensive contributors and there aren’t obvious replacements available.

The above chart (all numbers from 2015) gives an outside look at the situation, but doesn’t tell the whole story. For one, both wRC+ (based on league average being 100) and UZR/150 (based on league average being zero) are only qualified with playing time and many of the players listed above didn’t have the playing time necessary to qualify (Michael Choice‘s numbers are from 2014, because he played just one inning in the outfield in 2015). There are also a few more options that could be available next year. In addition to Abraham Almonte, Lonnie Chisenhall, Michael Martinez, Jose Ramirez, Zach Walters, Collin Cowgill, Choice and Joey Butler, the Indians could go with Shane Robinson, Robbie Grossman, Tyler Naquin or James Ramsey.

There are a ton of options, but no good ones. At their best, an outfield of Brantley, Almonte and Chisenhall would provide great defense and pretty solid offense. With Brantley most likely out until May, there is already one hole and depending on two unproven players in starting roles is a risk the Indians shouldn’t be comfortable with.

While individually, none of the players available stand out, they all have positive aspects. Some of these are more obvious than others and we can fairly safely say that Cowgill and Chisenhall are decent fielders while Choice is someone you never want to see in the outfield (the jury is still out on Ramirez, Walters and Almonte). In addition, many have extreme splits as well and not always in the expected manor.

To begin, in addition to being the only player who can reliably hit left handed pitching, Cowgill is the the only player guaranteed a contract ($1M for his second year of arbitration), so he will almost certainly be on the 25 man roster to start the season. It is also worth noting that Butler, a right handed hitter, is a more consistent and powerful hitter against right handed pitchers than left. Although this is his best split side, he has also been better against left handers than Chisenhall has been against either left or right handers.

While they have the pieces to create a few decent outfielders (Choice is also slightly better against LHP, Robinson better against RHP, but neither are as good as the four listed above), the Indians may have some issues finding roster spots for all these players if they need six men to fill three outfield positions. Assuming Cowgill and Almonte make one centerfielder, Sands and Chisenhall a right fielder and Butler and Choice a left fielder, they would likely have a slightly above average defensive outfield, a slightly below average offense and a 27 man roster.

There is a second problem with the list of incomplete players making up the prospective outfield for the Indians in 2016. Not one of them played more than 100 games in the outfield in 2015 (Robinson and Almonte were the only ones above 50 games) and most haven’t played 100 games in the outfield total in their careers. Below is the breakdown of all the options with their age and MLB outfield experience.

The Indians wouldn’t start Francisco Lindor at short stop to begin the 2015 season because he “wasn’t ready” (although every reasonable person knows it was only to delay the start of his MLB service time), but at the moment, they are looking at a field of 13 outfielders, none of whom have proven themselves at the Major League level. While some have played enough to prove their fielding (Cowgill, Robinson) and others have shown that they can be decent with the stick (Butler, Chisenhall and Ramirez), when it comes down to it, there isn’t a single player for any outfield position who brings any sort of confidence. No player in baseball is a guarantee, but this list is about as far from a guarantee that exists.

To make an extremely early prediction (there is still plenty of time to improve the situation and plenty of players available to fix it), I would guess that the outfield on Opening Day will be Chisenhall in right, Cowgill in center and Butler in left with Almonte as fourth outfielder, Ramirez as reserve middle infielder and Walters as pinch hitter and emergency outfielder. With Chris Johnson and Carlos Santana splitting first base and DH duties, there isn’t room for any others on the roster.

While his stock has dropped in the past few months, I would still expect Naquin to make his debut in 2015 and most likely in a similar period that Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor did this year during early June. If he can play well in Spring and early on in AAA, Ramsey could join him shortly after and with Brantley expected back in May (if you’re Paul Hoynes) or August (if you’re Peter Gammons), by the All-Star break, the Indians’ outfield could actually be a positive even without any changes. Of course, there is an equal and probably greater chance that the series of platoons will under perform the early 2015 combination of Raburn, Murphy, Bourn and Moss.

As said before, there is still plenty of time to fix the issue, but as free agents drop off the board and as teams like the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Dodgers fill their rotations, there are fewer options available. One thing is certain, if the Indians don’t make a major move (bigger than signing Victorino, but possibly on the level of bringing in Davis) the outfield situation is going to be very disappointing in a few months.