I Have No Clue.

The predictions I gave yesterday with the help of Baseball Prospectus 2006 have gotten me thinking. It’s obvious this is a Red Sox site. It’s obvious that we wear glasses heavily tinted with red.
We all think our team can do really well. It’s true – the team can do really well. We seemed to have formed a “leather curtain” behind our pitchers- Gold Glover Mike Lowell and JT Snow at the corners. Alex Gonzalez at short who apparently should have won the Gold Glove ever since instituted and even after he retires, should win it anyways. Then you have Mark Loretta, while not known as a stupendous defender, is quite adept with the glove and could potentially win a Gold Glove.
Our outfield defense is just okay, we’ve got Manny in left who will stumble around outside Fenway but in Fenway play the wall artfully. We have Crisp, an upgrade in every facet defensively over Damon (according to various sources) and Trot Nixon, an above-average defender, although I think he’ll slip to average this year.
We’ve created a blend of defense (Gonzalez), of power (Ortiz), of ball-handling (Loretta), of speed (Crisp)… and we all aren’t concerned with the offense, with the defense. It’s the pitching. Prospectus isn’t exactly happy with our pitching staff. It looks as if our bullpen will be decidedly average to above-average. It looks as if our pitching staff could be a disaster. Schilling not topping 100 innings – Beckett pitching well but not as well as we hope, and Papelbon regressing to the mean.
BP predicts this for Papelbon: 6-6, 101.0 IP, 4.91 ERA. That’s decidedly different from the Fire Brand projection of 8-4, 114 IP, 3.28 ERA. The wins and IP we have both basically agreed on, but the ERAs are vastly different. The ERAs are going to be a significant difference for us. If we’re right, we can breathe easy – well, not easy, but easier. However, if he puts up a 4.91 spot, that’s no good. Our tinted-red glasses hope for the 3.28 ERA, but objectiveness and a complete reliance on statistics point to a 4.91 ERA, which leads me to believe that has more credence.
I hesitate to say that BP is right, because for every one they’re right about, there’s more they’re wrong about. However, it makes me think that we’re not exactly as good as we thought we were, and we’re going to struggle this season on the pitching end. I certainly hope not and I can’t say that with any confidence whatsoever because games are played on the field and not on paper. On paper, I like our lineup. I like the speed and offense Crisp provides us, the perfect #2 in Loretta, the power of Ortiz and Ramirez, and so on and so forth. However, the rotation of Schilling, Wakefield, Beckett, Wells, and Clement now that I think of it – while deep and better than the Yankees’ options – is far from perfect. What if Schilling still struggles with injury and still puts up an ERA north of 4.00? It’s possible. We pretty much know what we will get from Wakefield, but there have been seasons where he’s north of a 5.00 ERA. What if Beckett doesn’t suddenly mature into an ace? Wells was solid for us last year, but his final line left us a bit wanting – what if he does that again this year? The struggles of Clement are well-documented and as much as I’m rooting for the guy, what if it happens again?
What if the sophomore slump befalls Papelbon, or Arroyo doesn’t transition well to the bullpen? If Seanez implodes back in the AL, if Tavarez and Riske can’t be effective, or Foulke can’t be the Foulke of old?
Of course, I could completely reverse that and say that Schilling could return to the Schilling of old, Wake will be Wake, Beckett will jump up, Wells will be Wells, and Clement will bounce back – the bullpen will be one of the best in the game.
Basically, I have absolutely no clue what this team is going to do. It could win 75 games. It could win 105 games.
Gotta love baseball.