I Want Livan Hernandez.

We need another starter. That, I think, is painfully obvious. We can’t rely on Matt Clement, Jon Lester, David Pauley, or David Wells all season long. ONE-THIRD of the season has gone by. That’s it. Not even half. We’ve got double the games to go, and this has already happened?
We need consistency. We need someone who can be a third starter, and get Tim Wakefield into the #4 niche he has excelled at the last several years, and in addition, put the #5 up for grabs between Clement and Wells (next year, Lester and Papelbon?).
The person I’m thinking of is Livan Hernandez. I say this because there have been rumors he may be moved in the coming months. I also say this because him to the Red Sox makes all sorts of crazy sense. Here’s Livan’s career:

His WHIP has been a bit on the high side this year and last year, so his overall numbers may be better because of the cavern known as RFK Stadium, and working our way back to the early makings of this millennium, PacBell – SBC – AT&T Park.
Nevertheless, his workhorse tendencies plus his likelihood of putting up an ERA around 4.25 in the AL is appealing. I realize his ERA is a bit high this year, but his last four games were encouraging. In each of them, he pitched seven innings, giving up 2, 1, 3, and 2 earned runs respectively (Postscript: 6 IP, 4 R tonight, and he won). Even better is that his contract expires after next year. “So what,” you say. I say this: Curt Schilling, Matt Clement, and Livan Hernandez’s contracts ALL expire after next year. That’s over $30 million freed up in starting pitching, and we can extend the appropiate people and use the rest of the money for free agents.
I asked Harper Gordek of Oleanders and Morning Glories for a bit of background on Livan Hernandez, and also posed them him this question: Would you trade Livan Hernandez for Abe Alvarez, Brandon Moss, and David Riske? His reply was such:
Livan hasn’t been the topic of too many trade rumors until this year. There was some thought before 2004 that he could be gone but he signed a contract extension that year ($8 million in ’05 and ’06, $7 million in ’07) killing those rumors. Last year the Nats were in the heat of a pennant race so it didn’t come up. This year though we have a combination of factors that are leading toward a deal. Nowhere team, new owners wanting to rebuild, contract nearing its end. You have to think that he won’t be here by the end of 2007, but will the trade take place this year?
By far the most dominant rumors have been, and still are, Livan to the Mets (of course the Nats fan say for Milledge and/or Pelfrey, and I’m sure that’s what Bowden is asking for given his past dealings). Minaya was the one who signed Livan to the extension in the first place and the Mets could use a solid innings-eating starter. I don’t see them doing this – but an injury to Pedro or the Braves/Phillies making a surge could change everything.
There are going to be two issues with every trade for Livan. (1) It’ll be hard for the Nats to deal him – they don’t have the pitching depth to cover the loss and already are taxing their bullpen too much. The innings Livan eats are extremely valuable, and more importantly dependable. (2) Since he doesn’t HAVE to be traded with the contract expiring next year, Bowden will likely hold out for exorbitant costs – like Milledge and Pelfrey. This makes a deal for the three guys you mentioned rather unlikely. Substitute something worthwhile in the minors for Riske and you might have something. Alvarez would interest them the most, as starters are a big need for this team and Moss is the type of toolsy OF Bowden loves to get (unfortunately). But that’s only a very weak might. Most likely Bowden would open the bidding asking for Wily Mo (that’s almost a given) and Hansen or Lester. Feel free to laugh, that’s what we do. Wily Mo might be the sticking point – but at the same time you might be able to just give him and some non-prospect minor leaguers if Bowden is still in charge. He loves TFROs (toolsy former Red OFs).
How is Livan? He had surgery in the offseason for his knee, which a lot of people blame on his weight. It was expected that he’d pitch better after the surgery (he was off and on at the end of last year and it was blamed on the knee) but he had a really poor start to the season. However, he’s had 3 good starts in a row, and Livan has said all along that he was adjusting to having a good knee, so honestly I expect a solid rest of the year from him. His main attribute is consistency. He’ll never wow you with a ton of scoreless innings in a row, in fact he can be very lackadasical to start a game – he’s much better in the middle innings . At the same time he doesn’t usually get blown out of a game – which could be very good for the Red Sox, a team whose offense can win those “bad” starts where he gives up 4-5-6 runs in 6-7+ innings. But even more important is the innings – he has a rubber arm that will get you to the 7th every game and through it occasionally. His IP is pretty specatcular this day and age.
Will he slow down? You have to believe so, he’s likely older than 31 (birth certificate issues) and his weight is a problem. It’ll likely wear out his knees at some point. He’s also losing something on his pitches – he’s not getting the number of Ks that he used to, but other than a couple of years, he’s always been more of a pitcher than thrower, so that won’t hurt him too much. For the next 2-3 years I think he should be ok – more like 2001-2002 Livan – especially in the AL. Definitely useful. (As an added bonus if you pitch him in interleague games or in the WS – he’s a great hitter for a pitcher.)
Josh Beckett’s ERA is 5.27, Curt Schilling can’t be counted on due to his age, we have David Pauley, just called up from AA to step in (remember Casey Fossum, anyone? Yeah, he turned out well…), Tim Wakefield, the only rock in our rotation and yet is more of a true #4 due to the unpredictability of his knuckleball, and a headcase in Matt Clement to go along with the oft-injured David Wells.
Stability. That’s what we need. Livan Hernandez seems to present the most enticing stability, without costing too much. Stability. I want Livan Hernandez, but what I want more is stability.