The Lottery Mafia takes a look at the teams currently outside of the playoffs across the NBA
Last year at exactly this time, the playoff picture in the NBA was almost entirely set; we may not have realized it at the time, but the teams that would be playing past 82 were mostly in place. If the season had ended on November 23rd, 2014, six of the playoff teams would be those who ultimately made the cut; the exceptions, the Los Angeles Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans, were only a game back of the field. In the East was a similar lineup; again six of the eight playoff teams were already in place, with Boston and Brooklyn a game and a half back. With the exception of Miami’s injury-fueled drop-off, continuity was the theme for last season.
The theme for this season, however, is chaos. While teams in the playoffs stayed there for most of the season, this year has chopped through that continuity like a Westbrook tomahawk slam. Last season the West dominated the East right out of the gate; this time last year the West had a 45-19 advantage (+26), and ended with a +77 dominance. The West has won the inter-conference series 15 of the last 16 years, in fact. But this season, something has changed. The East is currently leading in inter-conference match-ups, 38-33. Teams like Cleveland and Miami are a combined 7-1 against the West, and even the Knicks and Hornets are each 4-1!
This strong start by the East against the West has completely shaken up the Western Conference standings. Three of last year’s playoff teams are currently residing in the lottery. Last year at this time, six teams had four or fewer losses; this season only the Spurs and the Warriors can claim that mark. Two teams sat outside the playoffs but still had winning records; four teams currently in the playoffs can’t claim winning records. The East is reaping the benefit of their edge, with 10 teams boasting a winning record and four teams with four or fewer losses. The balance of power has shifted over the first month. Will it continue? That’s a question with too many variables to answer, but it should be noted that the Warriors start a six-game road trip through the East next week.
With the dust probably more unsettled than last year, a number of the current lottery teams could see their way up the standings as current playoff teams sink back to earth. However, it’s just a likely this season will see that intra-season continuity and these current playoff squads retain their position. Let’s take a look at the lottery teams and see which ones can move up, and which ones will probably be counting lottery balls in June.
The Lottery
1. Philadelphia 76ers: 15th in the East, #1 pick (if season ended today) – With Joel Embiid out for the year, Dario Saric coming from Europe next year, and a possible four first round picks in the 2016 draft, the plan all along was for the Sixers to tank another season. #3 pick Jahlil Okafor is probably already one of the top 5 post scorers in the league, but results with “Oak” next to Nerlens Noel have been poor thus far. Everyone is talking about whether the Warriors ever lose; will the Sixers ever win?
What to Watch for: How long it takes the 76ers to notch their first win. The record for worst start to a season is 0-18, set by the Brooklyn Nets in 2009. While they missed out on the record last season (0-17 start) could this be the year the Sixers get it done and lockdown the worst start in NBA history?
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 15th in the West, #2 pick – This organization is a tale of two goals. On the one hand, Byron Scott is a veteran coach taking a roster of veterans such as Kobe Bryant, Lou Williams, Metta World Peace, and Roy Hibbert and making a run at the playoffs. On the other, a team with little recent success has a stable of talented young players it is supposed to be developing. The Lakers can’t make up their mind, Kobe can’t hit a shot, and Scott can’t give an intelligent postgame comment. This team is a mess.
What to Watch for: Byron Scott is clearly not the coach of this team’s future; will they decide to remove him as the coach of the present?
3. New Orleans Pelicans: 14th in the West, #3 pick – With the medical drama worth of injuries this team has sustained in the early going, no one is surprised to find this team showing up in this article. The surprise is how early they make an appearance. Although they have logged two wins recently, they have ascended only to 3-11, and major pieces aren’t even back yet. The question with this team is always “if” – if they stay healthy they could do this or that. And it’s true – a healthy Pelicans’ squad could reach the Conference Finals; they are packed with talent. But they can’t stay healthy, so this is a pointless exercise.
What to Watch for: Guard Tyreke Evans is due back later this week from preseason surgery. If he can shake off the rust and return to last year’s driving force, see if this team can make a successful run at the playoffs.
4. Brooklyn Nets: 14th in the East, #4 pick – After losing their first seven games, the Nets have won three of the next seven and been competitive in most games, including coming closer than almost anyone to knocking off the Warriors. Nets fans will point to a 4-7 start last year and a 4-12 start two years ago (both seasons in which they made the playoffs) and find hope moving forward. Outside observers will point to a supreme lack of talent and a coach who doesn’t seem to have a connection with his players.
What to Watch for: The Nets owe their unprotected first rounder to Boston as a result of the Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce deal a few years ago. Will they play for pride this season so they won’t give up a high lottery pick? Or will they make long-term decisions that could inflate the value of that pick? The answer should be the latter, but watch them push for the former.
5. Sacramento Kings: 13th in the West, #5 pick – This team brought in a collection of role players this offseason hoping to make a playoff push. Instead, they’ve been the league’s soap opera to this point. With their superstar ranting in the locker room and their general manager polling players on important personnel decisions, this team, we should rename this team “As the Kings Turn”. The playoffs are technically still reachable, but horridly unlikely.
What to Watch for: If things continue to go South, the possibility of trading DeMarcus Cousins for a large package of assets becomes more realistic. DeMarcus to Phoenix? Boston? Orlando?
6. Houston Rockets: 12th in the West, #6 pick – Here’s the biggest surprise on this list. Houston was supposed to be even better than last year’s team that won 56 games; Dwight Howard was healthy, they added Ty Lawson, and multiple “experts” picked them to win the title. Instead they’re four game below .500 and have already fired their coach. There’s too much talent here for them not to make the playoffs, but if they don’t start caring on defense and hitting shots on offense, they’ll be lining up a matchup with the Warriors in round one.
What to Watch for: Interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff needs to figure out how to manage two ball dominant players in Lawson and Harden; does he staffer their minutes, or try to turn one into more of an off-ball player?
7. Portland Trailblazers: 11th in the West, #7 pick – Another playoff team from last year, this is probably where we expected Portland to be after they lost four of their starting five from last season. CJ McCollum has been a pleasant surprise, and he and Damien Lillard are shooting the lights out from all over the floor, leading Portland to a top-10 offense. It seems like they could stay in this middle area all season, not quite in playoff contention but not knocking on the door of the basement.
What to Watch for: Portland acquired a treasure chest of bigs this offseason, collecting a rotation of Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis, Noah Vonleh, Meyers Leonard, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Maurice Harkless. They need to decide who from this group is in their long-term future, and who will be moved out of town.
8. Orlando Magic: 13th in the East, #8 pick – We went through eight teams to reach the third-worst team in the East; last year three of the worst five teams were from the East. The Magic have been especially feisty this year, hanging in nearly every game they’ve played. Until they lost at Cleveland over the weekend, every game they played was decided by single digits, including two overtime games and a double-overtime game. Evan Fournier is exploding during his contract year, and they seem to have a stocked backcourt of guys with Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Mario Hezonja, and the veteran C.J. Miles. If Scott Skiles can sort out his rotations across the roster, this team could be in the mix for the final seed in the East. Although let’s be honest, every team in the East more than an hour from New Jersey is in the mix in the East.
What to Watch for: Skiles seems to be burying two of the Magic’s most recent picks, Aaron Gordon and Hezonja, behind middling veterans. Whether he continues to push for the playoffs, or eases off the gas and allows the young players to grow with playing time, will be an interesting storyline moving forward.
9. Milwaukee Bucks: 12th in the East, #9 pick – After a meteoric rise last season into the playoffs, the Bucks seem to have regressed some as they jettisoned valuable veteran pieces such as Jared Dudley and Zaza Pachulia in favor of giving more minutes to their young core. While there have been growing pains, there have also been flashes of greatness, and Milwaukee is 5-3 in games that Jabari Parker has played. This team is just now getting fully healthy, so the true test is yet to come.
What to Watch for: More so than any other team in the league, Milwaukee is designed to follow Golden State’s model of constant switching on defense: their starting lineup stands at 6-6, 6-8. 6-11, 6-8, and 6-11. After finishing 2nd in defensive efficiency last season, they are 29th this year; see how high they can raise that up as they get into a rhythm.
10. Denver Nuggets: 10th in the West, #10 pick – Everything about the Nuggets should focus on how good Emmauel Mudiay has looked so far. He’s tall, strong, and fast which makes for one heck of a point guard package. As he develops a feel for the game and defenses slow down in his mind, he’s going to be something special. The playoffs were never the goal this year; developing their young talent was, so this is right where they want to be.
What to Watch for: The Nuggets’ “White Gold” jerseys. They look phenomenal, and while Denver shouldn’t replace their already nice looking home jerseys, these alternates should make regular appearances.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves: 9th in the West, #11 pick – While a 4-2 start has faded into 6-8, the Timberwolves still have a lot to be pleased about. Karl-Anthony Towns is by far the best rookie from a strong class, showing offensive savvy alongside elite defense throughout the early part of the season. Wiggins and LaVine look like a solid wing pairing for the future (if coach Sam Mitchell will stop playing LaVine at the backup 1) and Ricky Rubio has been tremendous (the Wolves are 6-4 when Rubio plays, 0-4 when he sits). This team doesn’t need to make the playoffs this year, nor do they probably want to, but their future is as bright as anyone’s on this list.
What to Watch for: The Timberwolves’ lineup of the future is Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Bjelica-Towns. However, the late and great Flip Saunders instituted a culture of mentoring for these younger players, and that involves guys like Kevin Garnett, Tayshaun Prince, and Andre Miller receiving playing time. As the season rolls on, will the young guys get more run?
12. Detroit Pistons: 11th in the East, #12 pick – The Pistons exploded out of the gates, starting 5-1 before a six-game road trip through the Western Conference slowed them down. They now stand at 7-7, just a game back of the playoffs. Stan Van Gundy has molded this team into his image, four shooters surrounding Andre Drummond, and it seems to be working.
What to Watch for: This team’s Achilles heel is their bench, which is probably the worst in the league outside of Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Brandon Jennings will return from injury soon; will that be enough of a boost, or will this team need to make a move?
13. New York Knicks: 10th in the East, #13 pick – There is a tight grouping of teams in the middle class of the East; a half dozen teams have either six or seven losses. New York has bounced in and out of the playoffs in the East a number of times, as Carmelo Anthony has shown he cares this season, and the king of putback dunks Kristaps Porzingis has the entire city buzzing. This team seems to have added legitimate talent this season, so preseason predictions of a low lottery pick could end up being quite a ways off.
What to Watch for: Is Porzingis really as good as he has looked thus far? Seemingly every other game Twitter is passing around stats that only “Shaq and Wilt” or “Duncan and Anthony Davis” have matched. Is this guy for real?
14. Boston Celtics: 9th in the East, #14 pick – The Celtics are one of the most interesting teams this season. They have the second best point differential in the East and the fourth best in the league, but they are 7-6 and just outside of the playoffs. This team has been top-5 in defense early, terrorizing teams with steals and transition opportunities. With so many useful players, but very little star power, this team (also stocked with the best collection of draft picks in the league) will be looking all season to make a blockbuster move.
What to Watch for: Boston’s metrics suggest they will right the ship soon and shoot up the rankings. They’re only a game and a half out of 2nd in the East, so that could happen very quickly. How good will this team be in the end?
With 10-15 games played this year, teams have a lot of room to change their fate. We’ll check back in later on to see who climbed off this list, and what new teams are facing their demise in the face.
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