To say Ian Desmond has had a frustrating first experience with free agency is quite the understatement.
He didn’t help himself by having a lackluster age-29 season, but a bounce back of sorts following the All-Star game (.589 OPS in the first half, .777 OPS in the second half) definitely helped. Plus, he offers something at the premium position of shortstop not many can offer: a speed and power combination with three 20-20 seasons already under his belt.
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Despite not having much competition with regard to other top free agents at his position, Desmond’s market has never really formed. The only actual possibility we’ve heard about was interest from the San Diego Padres, who instead opted for a one-year deal with Alexei Ramirez.
All the top free agents are finally off the board now that Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespdes have found homes for 2016, but the market is still moving slow. This is forcing some teams to re-think their original strategies because of opportunities they didn’t anticipate being possible.
One of those teams is the Tampa Bay Rays.
They’ve already capitalized by signing first baseman/outfielder Steve Pearce, which brings unexpected power and depth to their lineup. They acquired shortstop Brad Miller in a trade earlier this winter, but a significant upgrade is still available each day Desmond remains unsigned.
At this point in the winter, finding a multi-year deal should be out the window, especially since he won’t come close to sniffing the seven-year, $107 million extension he rejected from the Washington Nationals prior to 2014. He needs a one-year contract to rebuild value and try again next winter. There’s risk for the player in betting on himself like this, but teams will still be willing to pay if he rebounds in his age-30 season.
Nabbing a player of Desmond’s caliber on a one-year deal is exactly what the Rays need, but there are two big problems, as Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times pointed out: possibly having to pay a salary close to the $15.8 million qualifying offer he rejected and surrendering the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft.
For a budget-conscious team like Tampa Bay, the draft is one of the very few ways they can get top-tier talent for a fraction of the cost. So, if they’re going to give that up, they must feel confident the pros outweigh the cons.
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Desmond has put together a pretty good resume throughout his big-league career, but he’s been on a downward trend since a breakout 2012 season. Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated made this point perfectly with a simple table showing the following trends from 2012-15:
- His OPS steadily decreased from 125 to 80.
- His ISO also steadily decreased from .219 to .151.
- His strikeout rate steadily increased from 20.7 percent to 29.2 percent.
On the surface, it doesn’t seem Desmond is worth losing that top draft pick, but there are other factors to consider. Topkin noted he’s from nearby Sarasota, Florida, has a desire to play for the Rays and is close friends with current Tampa Bay outfielder, Steven Souza, Jr.
Plus, one would imagine he’s pretty mad about the lack of interest in him and is motivated to prove people wrong with a strong season.
Despite a rough season, the 1.7 fWAR he produced in 2015 still beats out what Miller did with his playing time (an fWAR of 0.7). This potential match becomes even more interesting after Tampa’s recent trade with the Colorado Rockies to acquire Corey Dickerson. Not only did this deal keep their starting rotation intact, they potentially saved a bit of money in the process:
#Rays saving more than $4M with this trade. Could apply it toward signing of Desmond. But are they willing to give up No. 13 pick in draft?
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 28, 2016
Tampa’s pitching staff and defense was among the best in baseball last season, while the offense was middle-of-the-pack. They’ve made significant offensive upgrades with the acquisitions of Pearce and Dickerson, and taking a risk on Desmond could be the difference in competing for a postseason berth in September.
It’s not easy to play in the American League East, but they certainly out-performed expectations under first-year manager Kevin Cash by posting an 80-82 record last year. Looking ahead to this season, they already have a very good chance at competing based on what the rest of the division did this winter:
- The Toronto Blue Jays still have a potent offense, but no true ace in the rotation.
- The Boston Red Sox bolstered their rotation and bullpen, but have questions on offense.
- The Baltimore Orioles spent a ton of money, but didn’t actually get any better.
- The New York Yankees made additions via trades, but may go the entire winter without signing an MLB free agent for the first time ever.
There will be obstacles for Tampa, just as there is for any small-market team operating on a tiny payroll. If they do follow through with this move, it would be as close to them going “all in” as we’ll see. Since the opportunity is unexpectedly presenting itself, they should take it.
Signing Pearce and trading away a solid reliever like Jake McGee for Dickerson makes me believe they’re seriously considering it.
Maybe a motivated Desmond playing close to home can help the Rays get over the hump and back into the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Then, they could recoup that lost draft pick next winter with a qualifying offer in anticipation of him rejecting it.
Potentially getting a compensatory draft pick isn’t as valuable as no. 13, but for the Rays, every draft selection is vitally important to their long-term success.
This move would be full of risk, but it’s not very often a team like Tampa Bay has a chance to make a significant offseason splash with a “win now” kind of move. If his price continues to fall, they should take the plunge.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can get through a winter without baseball together: @mmusico8.
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