In defense of drafting Taylor Ward

When the Angels drafted Fresno State catcher Taylor Ward with their first round pick in this year’s draft, the reaction was… less than positive.

https://twitter.com/ScottyA_MWAH/status/608085214783373312

I heard Taylor Ward earlier today and winced uncontrollably. Then the Angels chose him. Stupidest FO in baseball, hands down.

— Turk's Teeth (@TurksTeeth) June 9, 2015

https://twitter.com/Halopauly/status/608110106392195072

I'm sure Taylor Ward is a swell guy but am I the only one who thinks that drafting a catcher in the 1st round is a bit Janikowski-esque??

— Jason Squilliams (@JasonSquilliams) June 9, 2015

I think you get the point. There are lots more tweets like that, but I try not to have profanity on the site if I can help it. To be fair, there is at least one person who liked the pick:

Taylor Ward sounds and looks a lot like Jeff Mathis: athletic, quick release, some power. How can I not like #Angels No. 1 pick?

— Lyle Spencer (@LyleMSpencer) June 9, 2015

OK, maybe that isn’t the ally you want if you are a Taylor Ward supporter, but there aren’t exactly a lot to choose from. You see, in his support of Ward, good ol’ Lyle made the comparison that strikes fear into the heart of every Angels fan: Jeff Mathis. Spencer was far from the only person to do this in a non-trolling manner either. Even though those comparisons were made with the best of intentions, evoking the name of Mathis around an Angels fan is like saying the name Voldemort around Hogwarts.

Here’s the thing about that though, Jeff Mathis was a REALLY good prospect. Over the course of his prospect career Mathis was generally regard as one of the best non-Joe Mauer catching prospect in baseball. Baseball America had him ranked 48th overall in 2003 (trailing only Mauer and Victor Martinez as catching prospects), 22nd overall in 2004 (again only behind Mauer), 67th overall in 2005, even after questions started to arise about his bat and 60th overall in 2006.

To give you an idea of what folks thought of Mathis, here is the 2004 Baseball Prospectus Annual comment on him:

In two years, one of the Molina brothers will be backing up this guy, one of the two best catching prospects in the game (along with Guillermo Quiroz) not named Joe Mauer. Mathis pounded the Midwest League at 19 and had a very good month in Double-A at 20, great age-for-league performance. He’s still getting reps behind the plate-Mathis wasn’t a full-time catcher until reaching the pros-but his defense is already considered an asset. That he was a shortstop in high school also may mitigate the usual concerns about the development of high-school catchers. He may be the best of the big four Angels prospects.

Once you factor in him being named the top defensive catcher in each of the leagues he played in during his minor league career and you begin to understand why folks were so high on Mathis. This is also why the Angels are so high on Ward.

Like Mathis, Ward projects to be an excellent defensive catcher. Hate on Mathis all you want, but all of the catching defensive metrics that have been developed in recent years have proven him to be a top flight defender. Ward is already well-regarded for his cannon of an arm and his athleticism behind the plate. The building blocks are there for Ward to become the premium defender that the Angels envision and we are currently in an era where catching defense appears to be valued more than ever. Look no further than the massive contract Russell Martin received this offseason for proof of that, or even the countless trade calls Jerry Dipoto has received on Carlos Perez since he acquired him. Catcher defense is the new hotness, it would seem.

What probably really drives people crazy about the pick though is not that Mathis wasn’t a good defender, but that he couldn’t hit at all. There are certainly questions about Ward’s bat, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is going to suffer the same fate as Mathis and be completely useless with the bat. Ward has hit in college. He has shown solid pop, a good eye and didn’t strike out very much. He clearly isn’t going to hit like Napoli, but it doesn’t mean he is going to hit like Mathis either.

Even if you are able to separate Ward from the Mathis comparison, there is still plenty of anger that he was selected so early despite having a second or third round grade. Those of you in that camp would do well to remember how signing bonus pools work in the draft. By picking Ward earlier than he was expected to be taken, the Angels should be able to save money in their pool to sign players like second round pick Jahmai Jones. Perhaps the reach they made for Ward was too much to offset those savings, but it isn’t as if the Halos were behaving totally irrationally.

Over time, this pick might prove to be an epic mistake, but we don’t know that yet. And I do mean “we.” The MLB draft is the most arcane draft in pro sports as far as the fans are concerned. Almost no fan out there actually knows anything about any of these players, much less has seen them play. These kneejerk reactions are made based off of scouting reports from sites like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs. Those reports themselves are largely based off reports those writers have gotten from scouts they’ve talked to rather than actual observation of the player. In other words, we’re all having third-hand freak outs based on second-hand reports.

To forecast doom and gloom for Taylor Ward because of those specious scouting reports and a comparison made to one particular player isn’t all that fair to the kid. Maybe everyone’s worst fears will come true and Ward will end up having the ceiling of a good defensive catcher that can’t hit a lick, but maybe the Angels actually know what they are doing. So, until he actually gets on the field and gives us reason to do, let’s not start treating Taylor Ward like we treated Jeff Mathis. Don’t make him pay for the sins of another failed prospect. Is that so much to ask?

I don’t think it is, though I do admit, it sure would help if Ward didn’t also kind of look like Mathis: