If the Indians are to make their second playoff appearance in three seasons, it will be largely due to the starting rotation picking up where it left off in the second half of 2014. The Tribe will enter 2015 with the same group of pitchers it ended 2014 with, avoiding the uncertainty that plagued last year’s staff after losing Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez to free agency. Yet, despite the great success the returning group had after the All-Star break last season, there is still a feeling of uncertainty surrounding the staff heading into 2015. If you have been following our projections series (Bill James, Zips & Steamer), you are aware that the major stat projectors do not think too highly of the Indians’ staff heading into 2015. Much of this is based on the fact that the staff as a whole is fairly young, and hasn’t had much more than a half a season’s worth of sustained success. 2015 could be the year the young Tribe hurlers put the rest of the league on notice that they are for real and here to stay.
Corey Kluber
Corey Kluber enters 2015 as the staff’s ace and the reigning Cy Young Award winner. 2014 was a breakout season for Kluber, one in which he set impressive high-water marks in his first full season as a starter. To summarize just how impressive Kluber was last season, he lead all pitchers with 7.4 WAR as well as a 2.35 FIP, his 18 wins were tied for 1st, his 269 strikeouts placed him 2nd in the league while his 2.44 ERA was 3rd in the AL as was his 10.273 K/9.
Although Kluber was dominant in 2014, and likely has the greatest chance of any of the other starting pitchers of repeating their success, there are still some worries surrounding Kluber. Despite only having pitched an equivalent of two full seasons, he will turn 29 in April, not exactly old, but no spring chicken either. 2014 was also the only season in his career in which he threw over 200 innings, and while he’s had no serious arm injuries thus far in his professional career, he isn’t yet a proven workhorse the Indians will need him to be if they are to be successful in the upcoming years.
Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco looks to continue where he left off in the second half of 2014, a period in which he was virtually unhittable, and quite possibly the American League’s best pitcher. Carrasco has long possessed the talent of the front-end starter, but until this past season has been unable to put it all together. After being inserted back into the rotation in the middle of August, Carrasco went 5-3 with a remarkable 1.30 ERA, while striking out 10.17 batters per 9 innings. Unless Carlos is the next coming of Walter Johnson, he is not likely to maintain these ridiculous rates. But considering what Tribe fans saw from him over this 10 start stretch, it is fathomable that Carlos produce an ERA in the low threes, which is All-Star caliber.
The biggest question surrounding Carrasco is whether these 10 starts where the real deal, or just a fluke stretch of games that he cannot reproduce, a la Ubaldo Jimenez in 2014 after a hot second half of 2013. Carrasco worked closely with pitching coach Mickey Callaway to perfect his mechanics and develop a consistent release point, which worked well for him once he was made a starter again. Hopefully having both Carrasco and Callaway on the same page for a full season will translate into tremendous success for the Tribe.
Trevor Bauer
The most analytically-minded, and perhaps the most uncertain and divisive member of the Indians’ pitching staff is Trevor Bauer. The man responsible for the Indians sending Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as a top 5 prospect thus far, but showed flashes of brilliance last season. After a disastrous first season in the Indians’ organization, Bauer showed marked improvements in 2014, making 26 starts and pitching 153 innings, while pitching to the tune of a slightly unpleasant 4.18 ERA (4.01 FIP). Despite what still appears to be very below average results, most are probably okay with it considering how terrible Bauer was in 2013.
Control has always been the knock against Bauer, but last year was the first season in his professional career in which he was able to keep his walk percentage under 10%. While his 9.1% rating is still unsightly, it shows that he is improving, and considering the fact that Bauer may have the most talent out of any pitcher on the Indians’ roster, that is a scary proposition for the rest of the AL Central. If we have learned anything from Bauer’s slightly unusual, and highly advanced off-season routine, it’s that he is highly invested in his own success and is willing to go more than the extra mile to be a great pitcher, a quality you have to admire in a young player.
Gavin Floyd
The Tribe’s lone off-season starting pitching acquisition has already been gifted a spot in the Indians’ opening day starting rotation, despite producing largely below average results throughout his 11 year career. Perhaps Antonetti has caught lightning in a bottle again, much like he did with the Scott Kazmir signing in 2013 and to a much lesser extent, Aaron Harang, had he remained on the roster throughout the season. Throughout Floyd’s nine starts in 2014 he posted a tremendous 2.65 ERA, however, a broken elbow shortened what could have a career year for Floyd, leaving him to sign a one-year, make-good deal with the Tribe this winter. Floyd has always been a proven innings eater during his time with the Pale Hose, but he has been unable to remain healthy during the past two seasons. A healthy, reliable Floyd could go a long way in stabilizing what is largely considered an uncertain staff as the Tribe aims to make a run for their first AL Central crown since 2007.
Danny Salazar
After setting the baseball world on fire in 2013, Danny Salazar took two big steps backwards in the first half of 2014. His velocity had dropped, his control was non-existent, and he was allowing home runs at a Brett Myers rate. After eight starts he was walking 3.76 batters per nine innings, his ERA was a putrid 5.53, while his FIP was a slightly less terrible 4.71, he was eventually demoted to AAA Columbus to work out the kinks.
Salazar returned on July 22 and returned to the form we had expected from him all year long. His velocity rose back to the dominant levels it was in 2013, he dropped his BB/9 to 2.34 and was overall a much better pitcher. During these 12 starts his ERA was a solid 3.50, while his FIP was an excellent 2.83, showing that he had fallen victim to the Tribe’s horrendous defense. Salazar just turned 25 and is entering his prime years. Indians fans are already aware of his immense talent, if he is able to put it together for an entire season the Indians may have one of the better rotations, not just in the American League, but in all of baseball. It is worth noting that Salazar has one remaining option and even though he is the most deserving of this spot, that remaining option may cause him to begin the year in Columbus.
T.J. House
Despite a tremendous 2014 season, in which House seemingly came out of nowhere to provide quality innings from the Tribe’s 5th rotation spot, T.J. may be on the outside looking in when Opening Day rolls around. Because of the ineffectiveness and injury at various points in the season of Josh Tomlin, Zach McAllister, and Danny Salazar, House was forced to step up and man a spot in the big league rotation, a position almost nobody expected coming into the year. House made 18 starts for the Tribe, pitching 102 innings with a 3.35 ERA. A cursory look at House’s career may make it seem that he isn’t nearly as talented as his ERA suggests, and that is probably true to an extent, but his 3.69 FIP suggest that this season may not be as much of a fluke as one may think. I would expect that House is the next man up if someone gets injured or fails to perform. Having a lefty like House in the organization is a valuable asset for the Tribe, even more so if he continues to progress like he did in 2014.
Zach McAllister
McAllister’s days as a starting pitcher with the Indians may be numbered. With the Tribe’s current depth, and McAllister’s recent struggles, it seems that McAllister is best suited for a long relief role. As a starter in 2014 McAllister posted a 5.67 ERA along with 7.6K/9, while as a reliever he was very effective, posting a 2.77 ERA and 9.7 K/9. However, McAllister is only a few years removed from being a solid starter and isn’t much worse (if at all) than Gavin Floyd, don’t be surprised if he gets a few spot starts in 2015.
Josh Tomlin
Josh Tomlin had an odd season in 2014. He pitched one of the Indians’ best games on June 28th when he threw a 1-hit shutout of the Seattle Mariners. He followed that up with 5 straight starts in which he allowed four runs or more. Tomlin is a good depth option and is a suitable fill-in for an injured player, but if he has to start more than a handful of games this season it is likely bad news for the Tribe’s playoff hopes.
Cody Anderson
Anderson entered the 2014 season as one of the Tribe’s best pitching prospects, but was a bit of a letdown in AA Akron. He made 26 starts for the Rubberducks in 2014 with a 5.44 ERA. Right now his problem is he is unable to be consistent. In 12 of his 26 starts he left the game allowing one run or fewer, in 10 starts he allowed 4 or more runs. The talent is there, he’ll probably start the year in Columbus and if he can manage to stay consistent and things go well for him this season, it’s possible we could see him up with the big league club as soon as September.
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