Last year due to injuries but also the makeup, the Indians bullpen played a huge role in their postseason success, just like the Royals did in 2014 and 2015.
This year, the Indians bullpen is loaded once again and there are reports they will try to carry 14 position players due to injuries to various offensive contributors but also thanks to the bullpens relatively good health this year.
We don’t need to waste any time talking about Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith. As long as all four are healthy, they are going to be in the postseason bullpen and will handle a bulk of the work.Given Tyler Olson’s success from when Miller was out and even after, he seems to be all but a lock for the bullpen.
Let’s say the Indians do carry 14 position players. The only question will be is if they will use a three or four man rotation in the ALDS.
Under a three man starting rotation (all they would need), that would give them the option of an eight man bullpen and four spots up for grabs after Allen, Miller, Shaw, Smith and Olson.
Dan Otero: While he hasn’t put up the same upper level numbers he did a year ago, Otero continues to be a reliable arm out of the pen, especially early in games. Some of his numbers are a little skewed by an astronomically unlucky HR/FB rate (26.1%) However, he won’t be pitching early in postseason games likely unless something disastrous happens,. His 64% ground ball rate, 3.9% walk rate and Tito’s trust in him despite lack of use in high leverage positions (five batters faced in such situations) make him a lock.
Nick Goody: His 24.3% K-BB rate make him a virtual lock as well. He owns a 16.3% swinging strike rate and has had great success against right handers and left handers this year.
Zach McAllister: On the surface McAllister is having a fine year. He’s striking out over a batter per inning but his walk rate is up a little and is allowing the hardest contact rate of his career as a reliever (39%) and inducing the least amount of soft contact (11.3%). After getting opportunities in close games in late July and allowing two go-ahead HRs, the scores of the last few games McAllister have pitched were mostly blowouts and he’s made just five September appearances. He’s throwing harder than he ever has in his career but rarely trusts his curveball despite the fact it gets more swinging strikes than his fastball.He can go multiple innings, which is good insurance to have but with off days and leveraging your best relievers more often, do you really need to carry a reliever capable of pitching three innings. The Indians needed it last ALCS thanks to their lack of healthy starters but so far that’s not the case in 2017. He could be on the fringes.
Danny Salazar: He’s getting one more start and they’re going to try to stretch him out a little longer after barely getting into the third inning in his Thursday start. He didn’t pitch poorly after some normal consistency issues in the first inning and his velocity was back up. If he can go four innings in his next start, it’s possible that the Indians could re-add him to the postseason rotation if they feel confident enough. But, Salazar fits the bill for a dominant reliever. When he came off of the DL in July, he went fastball heavy and it worked. When he establishes that he can throw the fastball where he wants early, the changeup eats hitters up when they’re behind in the count. In the bullpen he wouldn’t need to worry about needing a third pitch. His fastball and changeup are enough to miss bats (combined 40.3% swinging strike rate) for two innings out of the bullpen if they need him to bridge the gap. He only throws the changeup for a strike 37.6% of the time, which is fine when the chase rate on it is 51.6%. He only throws his fastball for a strike 53% of the time and that needs to go up to make the changeup work, especially in the bullpen and in the playoffs.
Mike Clevinger/Trevor Bauer: Theoretically, the Indians could use either of these two pitchers in the bullpen if they determine that Corey Kluber will pitch Game 1 and 4 (short rest) and Carlos Carrasco 2 and 5 (normal rest). Both have previous experience in the bullpen though Clevinger has spent more time in there and had some more successful, consistent stints.
Josh Tomlin: He could be considered for the rotation over Bauer or Clevinger for a potential fourth starter spot if they got with four starters and want one of the other two in the bullpen. Tomlin’s lack of swing and miss ability do not make him a good fit for the bullpen. If he’s on the postseason roster, it’s probably as a starter and the Indians could use him two times through the order and hope that equals four productive innings then throw in Salazar for two innings behind him to offer the change of pace velocity wise before unleashing the back of their bullpen.
Given their recent usage, names like Shawn Armstrong, Craig Breslow, Kyle Crockett and Ryan Merritt do not figure to factor in.
The Indians should feel pretty confident about their starting rotation heading into the ALDS. It seems like a foregone conclusion they’re going to face the New York Yankees, the one team that can match the Indians bullpen depth. They have plenty of home run hitters but most of their power comes from the right side.
If the Indians do decide to go with 14 position players, I would expect they will use a four man rotation given their success and go with a seven man bullpen.
Kluber
Carrasco
Bauer
Clevinger/Tomlin
Goody/Salazar
Otero
Olson
Smith
Shaw
Miller
Allen
The Indians clearly wanted a second lefty in the bullpen when they signed Boone Logan so they’re going to go this route in the postseason. Tomlin is not a great matchup vs. the Yankees especially since they’d likely start him Game 4 in Yankee Stadium. I’d expect them to go with Clevinger, but they are loyal to Tomlin, for better or for worse. If they go with a four man rotation and Salazar isn’t a starter, that might leave he and Goody for the last bullpen spot based on how much they trust Salazar if they use 14 position players.
Kluber
Carrasco
Bauer/Tomlin
Two of Bauer/Clevinger/Salazar/Goody
Otero
Olson
Smith
Shaw
Miller
Allen
If the Indians use a three man starting rotation, that leaves an extra bullpen option after picking between Bauer, Tomlin, or Clevinger for that third start. I’d expect Bauer, but again, their loyalty to Tomlin factors in. It’s hard to see the need to McAlllister in either scenario and all of this hinges on what they feel comfortable doing with Salazar as well. Goody should be a lock but given Tito’s trust of Otero, he might have his spot threatened by whatever starter they send to the bullpen. Goody has been extremely effective this year, so it sounds silly to leave him off but they may opt to choose length from the bullpen because of a decision to carry a 14 man roster, they’ll want innings protection.
For what it’s worth, here’s my prediction or what I’d do.
SP
Kluber
Carrasco
Bauer
Clevinger
Goody
Salazar
Olson
Smith
Shaw
Miller
Allen
Cuts: Tomlin, Otero, McAllister.
I’m really glad I don’t have to make this decision.
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