Should the Red Sox ink their young stars to long-term deals?
Troy Tulowitzski and Fausto Carmona both recently inked long-term deals despite not being eligible for arbitration yet and the Tampa Bay Rays also inked James Shields in addition to Evan Longoria, he of six games experience.
Why have the Red Sox not followed this trend in locking up one-to-two years of service players? Let’s look at each candidate.
Clay Buchholz already has a no-hitter, but I worry about his small frame. He also needs to put together a full year in the bigs with consistency before a long-term contract is a discussion.
Manny Delcarmen is in his fourth year (yes, fourth) and is coming off a successful year as he looks to spend his first full year in the bigs. Despite relief pitching achieving higher and higher importance (Heath Bell and Hideki Okajima are the linchpins to their bullpens), they continue to receive no cachet from arbitration. Thusly, there is no reason for any team to explore locking up a reliever long-term once the issues of reliever volatility and possibility of injury are factored in.
Jacoby Ellsbury could be the most electric Sox rookie since Nomar. He possesses the “it” factor and has shown himself worthy of a full-time role in the early going. However, he’s currently platooning with Coco Crisp and has much of, if not all, his value tied up in his legs. Not only does Jacoby need to turn in a full season before discussion of a long-term contract commences (Longoria is a huge exception because he’s an inevitable star) but he also needs to prove without a shadow of a doubt he is not injury prone. A hamstring tweak in its slightest could have career lasting ramifications.
Jon Lester is a good candidate to lock up his arbitration years at a cost-effective rate considering his clear talent. Alas, Daniel Cabrera also is a talent, but he hasn’t learned control, either. We all certainly hope Lester figures out how to get strike one, but until he does, you can’t put any long-term hopes on him.
Jed Lowrie is off to a great start and causing a lot of people to call for Julio Lugo’s head, but he’s in his infancy (much like Longoria) and doesn’t profile to be a stud (rather, a Dustin Pedroia clone). It’s far, far too early to even consider the Lowrie notion, doubly so when he doesn’t even have a starting spot available to him for the foreseeable future.
Jonathan Papelbon is a great candidate for a contract. Proven, electric, shoulder issues behind him. One small caveat, and I say this with no insider knowledge and opinion only: he wants the money, and a lot of it. Long-term contracts for young players always involve the player giving up future earning potential to ensure a payday in the face of an unknown future. Papelbon has already made it clear he’s very comfortable going year-to-year (maximizing earning potential) so unless the Sox pony up, that’s just what he’ll do.
Dustin Pedroia is another great candidate for a long-term contract (through his arbitration years) and unlike Paps, looks to be a realistic candidate. Pedroia, as valuable as he is, will never command a stratospheric salary and thus may be more amenable to securing a solid footing financially. If Pedroia can stave off a sophomore slump, this very possibility may be examined.
Kevin Youkilis would surprise me to be a candidate for a long-term deal. Short-term? Absolutely, but since he’s only in his third full year starting and is already at an advanced age, the odds would seem against him doing so. As a third baseman, he’d have both more earning potential and a better chance of a long contract. As is, he does not fit the profile of a power hitter which most first basemen are. Yes, his defense is Celtics-like. Yes, his plate discipline is otherworldly. No, he’s not a cornerstone. Put it this way— as much as Youk is awesome, wouldn’t you much rather sign Mark Texeira as a free agent and trade Youkilis? (No, “trade Lowell and put Youk at third” doesn’t count.)
The biggest thing holding back long-term contracts is the Red Sox being a high-market, high-payroll team. They can afford to go year to year on players to minimize risk of injury or attrition. Part of the value of the Carmona, Longoria, Shields and Tulowitzski contracts is the cost-certainty it brings to those clubs, clubs that are either small or mid-market clubs.
Our kids will be around a long time and they will play. Just don’t bet on a long-term contract to prove it.
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