When Neil Olshey and the Portland Trail Blazers struck out in their attempt to replace the departing LaMarcus Aldridge during free agency with another A-list star, Blazer fans around the globe let out a collective sigh and prepared for the inevitable. No matter what you want to call it – rebuilding, retooling, tanking or just being flat out being bad – there was no denying that the 2015-16 Portland Trail Blazers were going to go through a transition period. And, by that, we primarily mean they would be transitioning a great deal of their results from wins to losses.
While the lead up to previous seasons had been spent daydreaming of dramatic finishes, clutch shots and magical playoff runs, this year’s incarnation inspired a much more subdued approach to boredom induced hallucinations. Moral victories, intermittent displays of competency and a truckload of ping pong balls became the new goals, as fans prepared for what seemed destined to be a lost season.
Yet, nearly half way through the schedule, this surprising bunch finds itself knocking on the door of playoffs, currently residing as the 9th seed in the always rough-and-tumble Western Conference, just 1 games back of the 8th seeded Utah Jazz. With impressive victories over legitimate championship contenders like Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Los Angeles (the relevant one) along the way, the Blazers have outpaced expectations so far this season, and, at the midway point have put themselves firmly in the midst of the bottom half of the Western Conference playoff picture.
But, is that a good thing? Sane minds can differ when it comes to this debate. And, in my case, same minds can differ depending on the time of day and lights on the scoreboard. So, let’s take a look at both sides of the debate about whether making the playoffs would be a resounding success or an unmitigated disaster, for this young squad.
Playoffs, Baby!
To the casual fan (and the old school fan), this is an easy choice. Winning is always best. Period. That’s what these young millionaires are paid to do, that’s what us fans pay to see, and by golly, everybody from owner Paul Allen down to the waterboys better be doing their damnedest to make sure they squeeze every last win out of this season. This goes double after the debacle that was free agency.
On top of that, there is a reason that, despite all the built in advantages of the draft lottery, you consistently see the same few teams at the top of the league standings and the same few teams at the bottom. For every OKC or Cleveland who turned their ping pong balls into generational stars and catapulted to the top of the league as a result, you have a Sacramento, Minnesota, Charlotte, or, until just recently, the Clippers. Team’s littered with decades worth of high draft picks, but, outside of a few outlier years, virtually nothing to show for it.
That’s because it takes more than talent to win at the highest levels of the NBA. More often than not a winning culture and big game experience trump pure talent. And, if the Blazers are going to join the ranks of the very best, they can’t be going out there and getting destroyed night in and night out. That’s not how you develop young talent, that’s how you develop bad habits.
With a plethora of talented players 25 years old and younger, developing this winning mentality is much more important than adding another 19 year old who is 3 years away from contributing in a meaningful way (if they ever get there at all). If this team wants to join the elite ranks of the league, nothing will be better than a strong push to the playoffs.
Even if they ultimately fall short, the experience of playing meaningful, do-or-die games in the final weeks of the season is invaluable. Not only for the players themselves, but, for Neil Olshey and the management team evaluating them, as well. What better way to figure out which players are small fish and which are keepers than to toss them into the shark tank that is the NBA playoff chase and see who sinks and who swims?
And, while any playoff appearance would no doubt be short lived, it’s still a great thing for a young team to experience. Matching up with a Golden State or San Antonio in the opening round would almost certainly end in a sweep, but, that’s still four games facing championship teams playing their hardest. For a team with aspirations of reaching that level, seeing them up close and personal is invaluable. So is getting your teeth kicked in, and subsequently realizing just how far away from truly contending you are. If that doesn’t drive you to put in the offseason work, there probably wasn’t that much hope for you anyways.
At the end of the day, the potentially dramatic affect the experience of a playoff run can bring to both the players and the organization is just what a young up and coming team needs. Sure, the loss of a draft pick would be tough, but, there are plenty of ways to acquire talent in the NBA. However, there is only one way to get the playoff experience that is a prerequisite to bringing home the top prize: getting there in the first place.
Rip City Tank City!
Yes, playoff experience is great. And, yes, it’s absolutely necessary to first take your lumps before make a real push for the championship. But, going all in without the cards to back it up is just foolish, no matter what “experience” you gain from it. What this team needs more than anything is more talent. And, the cheapest and easiest way to get talent is through the draft.
Normally, the difference in draft position between an 8 seed and teams that narrowly miss out is minimal, providing no incentive for a team to not push hard for that last playoff spot. Normally.
However, because of the lottery protected first round pick that was sent out as part of last year’s trade deadline deal for Arron Afflalo, the Blazers aren’t in a normal situation. If they make the playoffs, they don’t just lose one or two spots in draft position, they lose their pick entirely. For a team still collecting talent and building a roster, first round draft picks are invaluable. Just giving theirs away to get swept by Golden State in the first round falls somewhere between foolish and unforgivably moronic.
And, if you’re committed to avoiding the playoffs at all cost in order to retain your draft pick (and you should be), you might as well go all out and try to grab as many ping pong balls as possible in hopes that you can beat the odds and land a true difference maker, such as LSU freshman Phenom Ben Simmons, the kind of player that could push this team to a truly elite level.
And, while the Blazers would currently have only the 10th best odds to win the lottery (based on their current standings), they’re only 5 games away from the 3rd best odds. That’s right in the sweet spot of lottery odds, where jumping up into the top three becomes truly viable.
Those 5 games are simply the difference between resting a few key guys down the stretch “for precautionary reasons”, dealing a few vets who contribute and have some value but maybe don’t factor into the future (such as Gerald Henderson, Maurice Harkless and maybe even Meyers Leonard), and, maybe a couple more “clerical errors” involving CJ McCollum and/or Damian Lillard.
Angling for ping pong balls while fending off the infestation of your locker room with a losing culture may be a delicate balance to strike, but, it’s not impossible. Plus, with a fiery and competitive leader like Damian Lillard in the mix, you won’t have to worry about complacency at the top of your roster, which is where true team culture and chemistry comes from.
When it comes down to it, this current roster is surprisingly decent with room to grow, but, even if CJ McCollum is a true superstar in the making and other young bucks like Noah Vonleh, Mason Plumlee and Allen Crabbe reach their full potential, they are still going to need more elite talent if they are ever going to truly compete with the LeBron’s, Curry’s and Durant’s of the world. Sacrificing a legit chance at one of those types of players in order to sneak into (and immediately get run out of) the playoffs could prove disastrous in the long run, and should be avoided at all costs.
Final Verdict
While eschewing the development of a winning culture by discouraging your team to compete at its highest possible level is rarely a good idea, the lottery protection on this year’s pick coupled with a discernable need for talent, make avoiding the playoffs the logical and, ultimately, correct play here.
That being said, going into full on tank mode would be a dangerous game with this group. Not only would you risk alienating star Damian Lillard, but, you threaten to stunt the development of the other young players who are just starting to find their groove.
So, don’t be surprised to see this team mirror the 2012-13 TrailBlazers. A team who stayed surprisingly competitive in the playoff race right up until the season’s final weeks, when a slew of “injuries” hit the team, sending key veterans to the end of the bench, and leading to a not-so-surprising 13-game losing streak to end the season.
Not only did that losing streak fail to erode the culture or competitive drive of the team (as they would go on to shock the NBA with a playoff series victory the following season), but, it also secured the team a late lottery pick. That pick became CJ McCollum, the team’s second leading scorer and star in the making. Imagine where this team would be without McCollum’s 20 points per night, and imagine where this team could be if they were to add another piece with his kind of talent.
And, that is exactly why, no matter how much they want to and no matter how much some fans clamor for it, this Blazer team simply cannot make the playoffs this year.
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