Punting to a good offense when you have a terrible pass defense IS NOT PLAYING IT SAFE!
Plug in those figures, and when Belichick punts, the Patriots win 68 percent of the time. In the long run, using our best estimates of what can be very hypothetical probabilities, the Patriots are better off going for it than they are punting.
Is that definitive proof that Belichick should have gone for it? No. The margin of error is too high on those guesstimates. What probability analysis suggests, though, is that going for it is about as valid an option as punting is in that situation. From there, you have to let the soft factors take over and let Belichick coach the specific situation. If both options give you a relatively equal chance of winning, would you rather put the ball in the hands of Tom Brady against the Chargers defense or rely on your pass defense to stop Philip Rivers?
That’s a really simple answer.
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