Insight Bowl Preview: Iowa vs Oklahoma

IOWA HAWKEYES (7-5, 4-4 in Big Ten)

Most Impressive Victory: 24-16 over #15 Michigan

Worst Loss: 22-21 to Minnesota

Notable Alumni: Andre Tippett, Chad Greenway, Dallas Clark, Bryan Bulaga

Iowa was, in some ways, a tale of two teams in 2011.  They went 6-1 at home, including an impressive win over #15 Michigan.  Their only home loss was to Big Ten runners-up Michigan State.  But they went just 1-4 on the road, including a 3OT loss to Iowa State and a baffling 22-21 loss to a bad Minnesota team.  They also had two displays of offensive anemia away from home, a 13-3 loss to Penn State and a 20-7 loss to Nebraska.  So it’s not exactly good news that this bowl game is (surprise!) not at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City.  Hell, since they’ll be wearing their white away jerseys for this game the coaches won’t even be able to trick the players into thinking that it’s a home game.  That’s the bad news. 

The worse news is that they also lost the services of one of their best offensive players when Marcus Coker (1384 yards and 15 TD) was suspended for this game.  His back-up, Mika’il McCall, was already suspended, so Iowa’s left trying to patch together a running game with a handful of true freshmen and former walk-ons.  Yikes.  Fortunately, they still have Marvin McNutt, arguably the best receiver in the Big Ten this year (78 catches, 1269 yards, 12 TDs).  McNutt holds virtually all of Iowa’s career receiving records and went from being a very good receiver in years past to an almost unstoppable force this year. The question now is whether or not the rest of the offense can pick up the slack and prevent the Oklahoma defense from simply blanketing McNutt in coverage for the entire game.   

The good news for Iowa is that this isn’t a terribly unfamiliar position for them to be in: they’re used to being the underdogs in bowl games and, more importantly, they’re used to winning them anyway. They’re 6-3 in bowl games under head coach Kirk Ferentz and they’ve won three in a row.  They know how to prepare for a bowl game, they know how to play with a chip on their shoulders, and they know how to win when no one (but them) expects them to win.  They shouldn’t have any trouble getting motivated to claim a big scalp like Oklahoma, either — that wouldn’t erase the disappointment of a 7-5 regular season, but it would be a nice way to cap off the season. 

OKLAHOMA SOONERS (9-3, 6-3 in Big 12)

Most Impressive Victory: 58-17 over #8 Kansas State

Worst Loss: 41-38 to Texas Tech

Notable Alumni: Mookie Blaylock, Brian Bosworth, Sam Bradford, Kevin James, Olivia Munn, Adrian Peterson, Jim Ross, Billy Sims

As recently as two months ago, Oklahoma was dreaming of N’Awlins and a trip to the Superdome to play for the BCS National Championship.  They were undefeated and on top of the college football world. Then Texas Tech rolled into Norman and did what no one else had done in years and years: beat OU. They ran out to a 31-7 lead and then madly held on in the face of a Sooner comeback, grabbing a 41-38 win. They didn’t win another game the rest of the season.  OU bounced back to dismantle a good Kansas State team the next week and it looked like they were back on track to win the Big 12 and put themselves into consideration for the national title game, even with one loss.  Then they went to Waco, TX and got RG3’d. Suddenly their national title dreams were dead and buried and their B12 title hopes were on life support. A lopsided beatdown to their in-state rivals, Oklahoma State, in the regular season finale was the icing on their misery cake. 

So what went wrong for Oklahoma?  The biggest culprit was injuries.  All-everything wide receiver Ryan Broyles?  Gone.  Leading rusher Dominique Whaley?  Gone.  Several key defenders, including linebacker Tom Wort, defensive back Jamell Fleming, and defensive end Ronnell Lewis?  Gone, gone, gone.  Even for a program as talent-rich as Oklahoma, absences like that aren’t easy to overcome.  The team that stumbled down the stretch in November was, almost literally, a shell of the team that started the season with so much promise in September. Sometimes shit happens and the injury fairy hits you hard. 

But, really, this game comes down to one simple factor: what’s Oklahoma’s mindset for this game?  If they’re motivated and into the game, they should have little trouble with Iowa.  Even with so many injuries (and transfers), they’re still more talented than Iowa.  But questioning their motivational level is a valid concern.  Unlike Iowa, their recent bowl history is fairly poor (although they did win their last two bowl games) and their preparation has frequently been a little slipshod — and that’s to say nothing of the fact that dropping from the BCS National Championship Game (or the Fiesta Bowl) to the Insight Bowl is a pretty massive drop in fortune.  If they’re not over that stumble yet, there’s every reason to think that their freefall could continue for another game.  I think Iowa will be prepared for this game; whether or not Oklahoma will also be prepared is an open question. 

THE PICKS:

Ross: As an Iowa fan, my heart says to go with the Hawkeyes.  It’s a pick I could rationalize with the concerns over Oklahoma’s interest level in this game and Iowa’s recent bowl history. But my head says Oklahoma, that the talent gap between the two programs is too severe, especially with Iowa missing Coker, one of the top running backs in the Big Ten and a crucial part of their offense.  So my heart or my head?  Sorry, heart:

OKLAHOMA 35, IOWA 24

Jay: This game is begging for an upset.  Landry Jones has gone into meltdown mode following the loss of Ryan Broyles, and he’ll be short a few more guys, namely Jaz Reynolds, in this game.  But then Iowa ended up returning the favor when they were forced to suspend the excellent Marcus Coker, who represents nearly the totality of the Hawkeyes’ rushing offense.  So now I don’t feel quite so confident in picking an upset.  The loss of Coker will put more of the game in the hands of quarterback James Vandenberg.  But while Vandenberg has proven to be a capable starter, moving to more of a passing game will create more opportunities for the Sooners to generate turnovers.  And that’s when they’re at their best.

Oklahoma 35, Iowa 24

Kevin: Outside of Michigan, Iowa hasn’t really stepped up and beaten a team the caliber of an Oklahoma. Iowa does have wins over three bowl teams but their quality victories aren’t as good as Oklahoma’s. Oklahoma is coming off of two tough losses in their last three games but I just think they are too good to lose to an Iowa team that is going to be playing without their workhorse RB. Iowa is also dead last in passing defense in the Big Ten (69th in Nation) and that scares me a bit against the OU offense. Could Iowa win? Sure, but  

 Oklahoma 34 Iowa 17